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Экономика

Оно, конечно, хорошо, ежели это так, как пишет Пронько, только аналогичное событие уже было ранее и кончилось пшиком, так что радоваться особых причин нет. Ну а насчёт разума, тут трудно судить. Пока у руля экономики стоит либеральный гайдаровский клан, свято соблюдающий интересы США и действующий по указивкам «вашингтонского обкома», трудно ожидать что-либо хорошее. Однако будем посмотреть, есть надежда на то, что после выборов действительно может измениться что-то в лучшую сторону. Мы русские, мы такие, что надежда в нас умирает последней. Дай Бог, чтобы до этого не дошло и как тут не вспомнить слова Великого Тютчева:

Умом Россию не понять,
Аршином общим не измерить:
У ней особенная стать –
В Россию можно только верить.

 

Первые признаки разума: Россия избавляется от долговых «фантиков» США

16 марта 2018 г.

     Автор: Юрий Пронько

Справка

Пронько Юрий- ведущий программы «Реальное время» на телеканале Царьград.

Лауреат Всероссийского конкурса деловой журналистики РCПП в номинации «Журналист года» (2011), обладатель почетного диплома Ассоциации российских банков за достижения в области финансовой журналистики (2011).

Первые признаки разума: Россия избавляется от долговых фантиков США

Фото: www.shutterstock.com

Первое. Россия, а вместе с ней Китай и Япония, приступили к распродаже US Treasuries. Второе. Минфин России намерен в ближайшие четыре года на внутреннем рынке купить порядка $150 млрд и складировать их в пресловутой «кубышке Кудрина».

Как стало известно «Царьград. Бизнес», в начале этого года Москва продала долговые бумаги США на общую сумму в $5,3 млрд. В результате Россия спустилась на 16 место  среди крупнейших держателей американских «фантиков».  Синхронно с нами аналогичным образом поступил и Пекин, правда, здесь сумма продажи кратно выше — почти $17 млрд. Поднебесная по-прежнему остается главным кредитором заокеанской экономики, но общий объем US Treasuries в китайских резервах снизится до исторического минимума с лета прошлого года. Вторым держателем по объему находящихся на балансе бумаг является Япония, которая также сократила заимствования американцам на $2,5 млрд.

Каковы причины такого поведения Пекина, Москвы и Токио? Вы подумали, что госпожа Набиуллина, которая по-прежнему держит в «фантиках» порядка $100 млрд российских денег,  поумнела? Вовсе нет, причина в тех событиях, которые наблюдались на долговом рынке США в начале этого года. Именно в январе был запущен механизм распродаж, когда инвесторы, опасаясь ускорения инфляции и дальнейших действий ФРС, стали избавляться от US Treasuries.

Примечательно, что в 2014 году, когда был дан старт «первому пакету» антироссийских санкций, а на внутреннем рынке произошел обвал рубля, нынешнее руководство Банка России приняло решение о распродаже американских гособлигаций, но после был совершен разворот на 180 градусов, и покупки US Treasuries возобновились. В 2017-м вложения Э.Набиуллиной в американские «фантики» в годовом выражении выросли на 22,1%. ЦБ и дальше бы наращивал «благотворительную» помощь Америке (своим кураторам?), но новый тренд на распродажу US Treasuries вынудил ее встроиться «в общий ряд». Если бы она продолжила свои вложения, то Центробанку было бы очень сложно объяснить свое поведение высшему политическому руководству страны.

При этом, я считаю, не стоит сильно обольщаться тому факту, что «засланные казачки» избавились от американских бумаг на $5,3 млрд. 100 миллиардов долларов по-прежнему за океаном. Это ни много, ни мало,  почти 6 трлн руб! Более того, на US Treasuries приходится львиная доля в общей структуре вложений Центробанка – 27%. Для сравнения: доля инвестиций ЦБ во французский госдолг  составляет 12,5%, в бумаги Германии - 11,7%. Порядка 77% активов Банка России находится за пределами своей страны. Самые большие вложения приходятся на иностранные государственные долговые обязательства — $218,7 млрд.

Валюта

Фото: www.shutterstock.com

Эксперты прогнозируют дальнейший обвал «пирамиды» US Treasuries. По их оценкам, неудовлетворённость нынешней доходностью в 2% достигла своего пика. 83% управляющих фондами выразили уверенность в том, что американские гособлигации сильно переоценены, что неминуемо приведет к их серьезной просадке. Данный факт будет иметь прямую корреляцию с курсом доллара. Объективно Вашингтону нужен «слабый бакс», так повышается конкурентоспособность американских компаний в борьбе за собственный и внешние рынки сбыта. И в этой связи, мы переходим ко второму событию, где поведение российского Минфина выглядит более чем странным. По данным ВЭБа, в ближайшие четыре года «главная бухгалтерия» России намерена купить на внутреннем рынке порядка $150 млрд.

От одних «фантиков» (US Treasuries) избавляемся, а другие начинаем скупать. Кстати, этот процесс уже запущен. Сотни миллиардов рублей прокачиваются через Московскую биржу  (аплодисменты со стороны финансовых спекулянтов в адрес Минфина и ЦБ!) и направляются на покупку иностранной валюты. Все больше денег изымается из российской экономики, и это, несмотря на профицитный бюджет (за два первых месяца 2018 года более 260 млрд руб), «высушивается» деловая активность, но ЦБ и Минфин рапортуют о макроэкономической стабилизации. Этой «стабильностью» сыт не будешь, врать можно в цифрах, но доходы-то населения падают. Хотя, уже сейчас могу  вам сказать, что по февралю Росстат будет «бить себя пяткой в грудь», рапортуя о росте реально располагаемых. Причину вы знаете — манипуляции с ростом зарплат бюджетников.

Но вернусь к «фантикам». Несмотря на «грозовые» предупреждения, российские Минфин и ЦБ намерены и дальше стерилизовать денежную массу в стране, направляя излишки не на развитие экономики, а на пополнение «кубышки Кудрина» — Фонда национального благосостояния. Уже сейчас они составляю $453,644 млрд, но, как «проболтался» министр экономического развития господин Орешкин, к концу этого года они возрастут до целевого показателя в $500 млрд.

Сотни и сотни миллиардов долларов, евро, фунтов и т.д. имеются у России, но работают не на нее. Зачем нужны эти богатства, если в экономике нет инвестиций, а население беднеет? Вопрос, согласитесь, не риторический, а фактологический.

Забавно выглядит еще одна конструкция, которую предложил Минфин. Речь идет о заигрывании с российским олигархами, которые вывели более триллиона долларов за последние четверть века из России. Дескать, на Западе вас обижают, возвращайтесь домой. Мы выпустим для вас «сирых и убогих» бонды на $3 млрд. В ответ на это Роман Абрамович попросил вид на жительство в Швейцарии, а господин Дерипаска купил себе гражданство Кипра. Было бы смешно, если бы не было так обидно. Россия превращена в «экспериментальный полигон», где резвятся «кролики»-олигархи, которым принадлежит 2/3 ВВП страны, а 70% крупной промышленности выведено в офшоры.

Надеюсь, что после 18 марта ситуация будет меняться в пользу России. Мы активно будем избавляться не только от US Treasuries, но и от других иностранных «фантиков». Но самое главное — прекратим преклонять голову перед «западной витриной».

Читайте также: Пиррова победа: Инфляция, дефляция, девальвация

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185 комментариев на «Всё может быть: Россия повзрослела и ей надоела игра в «фантики» с Америкой? А почему бы и нет?»

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