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Если бы о реакции западного экспертного сообщества на предстоящую встречу Дональда Трампа и Владимира Путина сняли голливудский фильм, то он назывался бы «Страх и ненависть в Хельсинки».

Илл. www.e-news.su 

 

У Путина есть то, чего хочет Трамп и боятся поляки

2 июля 2018 г.

    Автор: Иван Данилов

Наблюдая за откровенной истерикой тех, кому сама возможность прямых переговоров российского и американского президентов кажется едва ли не концом света, нельзя не отметить, что они живут в каком-то своем мире, который наполнен страхами и галлюцинациями неизвестного происхождения.

© РИА Новости / Сергей Гунеев

Например, государственный секретарь Польши Анна Мария Андерс заявила о беспокойстве сторонников США в Евросоюзе в контексте предстоящего саммита: "Мы обеспокоены. Мы однозначно обеспокоены. Мы обеспокоены, потому что невозможно предсказать, что будет сказано (на саммите. — Прим. ред.). Путин может быть очень очаровательным, и вопрос в том, как наш президент будет на это реагировать".

Стоит отметить, что

польская чиновница не стесняется называть Трампа «нашим президентом», что хорошо иллюстрирует уровень суверенитета Польши (точнее, его отсутствия), а также то, насколько польские политики не хотят жить в объединенной Европе и насколько им хорошо в качестве американской колонии.

Именно страх того, что президент США, исходя из каких-то своих стратегических соображений, «бросит» их всех на произвол судьбы, заставляет проамериканских политиков и экспертов переживать о своем будущем.

Для полноты картины стоит посмотреть на то, как ситуацию вокруг саммита воспринимает «эксперт по России» и экс-посол США в Москве Майкл Макфол. Его твиттер-аккаунт дает уникальную возможность видеть «в прямом эфире», какие муки он испытывает от самой мысли о возможных уступках Трампа:

«Республиканцы были в гневе, когда Обама не смог удержать Путина от аннексии Крыма, но многие из них сейчас молчат, когда Трамп раздумывает об одобрении этой аннексии. Ваше молчание многое говорит о ваших принципах и стратегическом мышлении на тему американских национальных интересов».

​Жаль, что господин экс-посол не потрудился объяснить, каким боком отрицание права крымчан на самоопределение соответствует интересам рядового жителя Оклахомы или Техаса. Но его можно понять, ибо он слишком занят перечислением «грехов» Трампа: «За последние две недели Трамп пригласил Россию присоединиться к „семерке“, отрицал вмешательство России в (американские. — Прим. ред.) выборы 2016-го, намекнул на признание крымской аннексии, намекнул на выход из Сирии и на сокращение американских войск в Германии. И в обмен на эти монументальные уступки Трамп попросил Путина сделать что?..»

​Вопрос мистера Макфола задумывался как риторический, но на практике можно выдвинуть как минимум одну версию ответа:

Трампу нужно российское содействие для удержания цен на нефтяном рынке и эта потребность обусловлена, с одной стороны, «выпадением» с рынка иранской нефти (из-за американских же санкций), а с другой — тем, что попытки Трампа «выжать» дополнительные объемы нефти из Саудовской Аравии не увенчались успехом. Нравится это Макфолу или нет, но «главный вентиль» глобального нефтяного рынка сейчас находится в Кремле и Трамп знает об этом.

Нельзя не уточнить: заявления Макфола о том, что Трамп намекает на сокращение военного присутствия США в Европе, в частности в Германии — это не результат галлюцинаций или паники дипломата. В американских СМИ упорно муссируется информация о том, что Пентагон получил прямое указание подсчитать возможные расходы на «масштабный вывод войск из Германии». Например, именно на эту тему вышел материал в «Вашингтон пост».

Американские пользователи соцсетей мрачно шутят на эту тему: «Немцы покупают газ у русских — притом что американские войска защищают Германию от них. Немцы вывезли из США золото, которое хранилось в США, чтобы оно не досталось русским. Ребята, а может, нужно оставить немцев наедине с русскими?!» Забавно, что некоторые американцы на полном серьезе предполагают, что «оставленной наедине с Путиным» Германии будет очень плохо, хотя в самой Германии Штаты вряд ли воспринимаются как некий ангел-хранитель, который под флагом НАТО защищает немцев от «российской угрозы».

Самое важное во всей этой истории — то, что Трамп готов пойти на прямой контакт, несмотря на очевидную политическую токсичность хельсинкского саммита. Вряд ли президент США решился на такие дипломатические жесты по доброте душевной или ради того, чтобы иметь возможность прикоснуться к «путинскому очарованию», о котором с таким уважением и страхом говорит польская госсекретарь.

Президент России Владимир Путин и президент США Дональд Трамп. Архивное фото

Президент России Владимир Путин и президент США Дональд Трамп © РИА Новости / Сергей Гунеев

Единственная возможная мотивация — у Владимира Путина есть что-то, что очень нужно американскому лидеру, причем нужно довольно срочно. Достаточно посмотреть, насколько Джон Болтон, радикальный «ястреб», русофоб и влиятельный советник Трампа по национальной безопасности, недоволен сложившейся ситуацией, чтобы убедиться: сам саммит и подготовка к нему, а также намеки на возможные уступки — это личная инициатива Трампа, который в бульдозерном стиле продвигает идею встречи, несмотря на сопротивление собственного аппарата. Болтон, которого интервьюер CBS "прижала к стенке" вопросами про признание Крыма, в конце концов сухо констатировал: «президент определяет политику, а я не определяю политику», указав тем самым на коренное несогласие с тем пакетом предварительных предложений, с которыми Трамп отправил его в Москву. Известный «вашингтонский ястреб» недоволен позицией президента и все-таки вынужден выполнять его приказы — это хороший знак, хотя и не гарантия успешного саммита.

Даже если во время саммита реализуется одна сотая от страхов европейских и американских экспертов и политиков, это будет уже большим успехом. Даже если саммит не принесет никаких конкретных соглашений, кроме совместного заявления сторон о том, что «разговаривать лучше, чем конфликтовать», — это тоже будет полезно.

Воленс-ноленс Трамп подаст всему миру сигнал о том, что даже страна, которая претендует на статус мирового гегемона, вынуждена договариваться с Россией и, пожалуй, ради этого результата Владимиру Путину стоит съездить в Хельсинки.

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67 комментариев на «Трамп, хочет — не хочет, вынужден договариваться с Путиным: Россия победила в любом случае. Разговаривать лучше, чем конфликтовать»

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