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Бедный, бедный Болтон ... не удалось ему заболтать Россию. Пять часов американский ястреб, он же советник по национальной безопасности США, Джон Болтон долбил своим клювом кремлевскую стену. Пять часов он пытался взять измором Патрушева, полтора часа убалтывал Лаврова, но точку в его амбициях, точнее амбициях и фантазиях его шефа Дональда, поставил Путин. Планида у нашего Президента такая — ставить на место зарвавшихся клоунов. Так что, янки, вы там всё таки определитесь, чего хотите, но по любому гегемонами вам уже никогда не бывать, а потому аппетиты свои как-то поумерьте, а то не ровён час ...

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Сказки Болтона в Москве или нет добра без худа

23 октября 2018 г.

     Автор: Александр Запольскис

Мы наблюдаем поразительную историю. В страну, якобы полностью изолированную от всего мира, уже скоро очередь выстроится из политиков, считающих важным что-то свое обсудить руководством России. Вплоть до ключевых фигур из США, хотя после встречи президентов в Хельсинки американская пресса заклевала Трампа, требуя все контакты прекратить, а те, что были – полностью опубликовать. Он даже сдался, отступил и пообещал приступить к ежемесячному ужесточению санкций, но спустя всего ничего в Москву снова прилетел его советник по национальной безопасности...

Формально, чтобы разъяснить позицию Вашингтона по вопросу договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), а также перспективам соглашения СНВ-III. Первый американцы намерены точно расторгнуть, над выходом из второго пока думают. Там есть свои плюсы и минусы, баланс неоднозначный, и это пока мешает принятию окончательного однозначного решения.

Но беседа Джона Болтона с секретарем Совета безопасности РФ Николаем Патрушевым заняла пять часов. Потом он еще полтора часа разговаривал с главой МИД России Сергеем Лавровым, что наглядно указывает на куда более широкий круг обсуждавшихся вопросов, и судя по привлечению главы МИД, существенно выходящих только за рамки взаимной безопасности.

Фактически мы наблюдаем торг. Трамп, руками своего советника по национальной безопасности, пытается заново поделить мир. А учитывая его репутацию как одного из ярчайших ястребов в нынешней администрации Белого дома, надо полагать, имела место попытка наезда с максимально жестких позиций.

По Сирии, по Ближнему Востоку, по нефти, по будущему Европы и, самое главное, по Китаю, полностью изолировать который санкциями у американцев не получается. Точнее, по деньгам выходит, но оборачивается ускорением утраты геополитического влияния в Азии и Африке. Впрочем, местами уже и в Персидском заливе.

Косвенно эта версия подтверждается двумя моментами.

Во-первых, хоть источники и говорят о длительном периоде подготовки, фактически Болтон начала паковать чемодан для полета в Москву только после заявления Трампа насчет пересмотра ключевых договоров нынешней международной ядерной безопасности. Очень похоже, что если какие контакты раньше и были, то носили они совершенно поверхностный, даже не консультационный, а только уведомительный характер, но к какому-либо совмещению позиций РФ и США не приводили.

В частности, русские должны были отвернуться во время планировавшегося второго массированного ракетного удара по Сирии. А они вместо этого подарили Асаду больше двух десятков батарей С-300. Не самой новейшей, но очень даже актуальной модификации. И налеты, в том числе израильские, резко прекратились, что плохо сказывается не только на политической репутации США и Израиля, но и на якобы непревзойденно выдающихся новейших самолетов F-35.

Во-вторых, ни одна из сторон по итогам ни словам не обмолвилась о результатах. Очень похоже, что американский ястреб постучал в красную стену Кремля и успеха не добился.

Впрочем, вряд ли мог. Нынешняя администрация США, мягко скажем, недоговороспособна. Согласие партнера на какие-то условия там трактуются как признак слабости, требующий отказа от достигнутого соглашения с целью еще надавить для получения более выгодных для Америки условий. Даже если выгода сугубо односторонняя. Учитывая же характер текущего геополитического конфликта между Вашингтоном и Москвой, противостояние вообще фактически дошло до уровня принципа или-или.

Весьма вероятно, где-то в одном из этих «или» не исключается вариант открытой войны, точнее автоматического неуправляемого скатывания к ней, что в условиях имеющихся ядерных арсеналов чревато крайне нежелательными для США последствиями. В связи с чем особо яркий смысл получает, безусловно, одно случайное (и случайное ли) совпадение.

Путин на форуме Валдайского клуба произносит ставшей знаменитой фразу по рай, и спустя считанные дни в Москву срочно договариваться прилетает правая рука Трампа по вопросам национальной безопасности. В пустословии Владимир Владимирович как-то раньше замечен не был, стало быть, для озвучивания намека основания имелись. Поэтому визит Болтона очень похож на «не-не-не, ребята, вы нас не так поняли, мы совсем не этого хотели».

А раз нет озвученных итогов, стало быть, пока не договорились. Надо полагать, это хорошо. Значит, в формате наезда запугать Россию не получилось. Ибо желай Трамп действительно прийти к соглашению, он бы точно не воспользовался посредническими услугами своего самого жесткого антироссийского ястреба. Стало быть, в перспективе следует ожидать визитов других лиц с более вменяемой позицией. Правда, таких в США сейчас совсем немного.

Однако в целом надо констатировать, что нет худа без добра.

При всей своей надменности и очевидном комплексе собственного величия, США вынуждены признать неизбежность необходимости с Россией как-то договариваться.

Причем по всему кругу глобальных вопросов. И это хорошо.

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