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Мысли вслух

Экономика

Наступил август…

1 августа 2018 г.

   Автор: Михаил Хазин

Справка

Михаил Леонидович Хазин- российский экономист, статистик, публицист, журналист, теле- и радиоведущий, бывший чиновник администрации президента.

Месяц для нас всегда немножко мистический, поскольку все расслабляются, все начальники уходят в отпуск, те, кому положено «держать» ситуацию расслабляются и начинается… Ну, все знают, что начинается. И в этой ситуации мне хотелось бы несколько слов сказать о том, какие у нас, собственно, могут быть неприятности. 

Наступил август…

Разумеется, речь идет вовсе не о неприятностях, а только о рукотворных событиях. Собственно, этот текст, в некотором смысле, ответ на вопрос о том, почему столь сильны российские либералы и почему их нельзя тронуть.

И для начала я опишу ситуацию, в которой мы все сегодня находимся.

Мы живем в финансовой системе, которая создана в своей базовой конфигурации на Бреттон-Вудской конференции (аналог Ялтинской, но в финансах), и которая управляется главным координатором — Международным валютным фондом.

Эта система в настоящее время находится в кризисе и одно из проявлений этого кризиса — отсутствие долларовой ликвидности. Созданная для расширения и поддержания долларового оборота система весьма и весьма затратна. И в ее себестоимость входит не только высокая зарплата топ-менеджмента финансовых институтов (не только банков), но и те деньги, которые выводятся из системы для решения разного рода сторонних вопросов. К таковым, например, относятся финансирование конкретных политиков и политических групп практически во всех странах мира, аналогичное финансирование журналистов и базовых СМИ (в том числе, завышение для них рекламных доходов), экспертов самого разного рода и пошива, от «супер-гуру» до разных конспирологов и «экзотериков» (это не ошибка, это отношение к предмету!).

Все это стоит очень дорого и именно для того, чтобы эту систему содержать и контролировать, а работает она, как видно на примере компаний по малазийскому «Боингу», «делу Скрипалей», «делу Литвиненко», атакам на Трампа и так далее и тому подобное, очень эффективно.

И отказ от нее может стоить ее хозяевам — банкирам очень дорого (в политическом смысле). Поскольку без этой системы контроля общественного мнения у элиты «Западного» глобального проекта будут крайне серьезные проблемы: станет достоянием широкой общественности и реальное состояние дел с экономикой, и полное отсутствие каких-либо доказательств по наиболее крупным общественно-политическим кампаниям (я не только наезды на Россию имею в виду), и начнут «пролезать» на ключевые позиции в государственном управлении совершенно «неправильные» (то есть не находящиеся под контролем) личности… Трамп, вон, уже пролез!

В общем, деньги нужны позарез. Но с 2014 года основной источник этих денег, эмиссия доллара, исчез. Я писал про то, что именно контроль над эмиссионным станком стал главной причиной конфликта Трамп-Клинтон, причем Клинтон как раз представляла интересы финансистов (элиты «Западного» проекта). А «неформал» Трамп — альтернативные элитные группы (как понятно с учетом вышесказанного, политический «формал» через систему барьеров, созданных финансистами, прорваться бы не мог).

Поскольку главный координатор бреттон-вудской системы — МВФ, именно МВФ должен был осуществить операцию по замене главного источника пополнения ликвидности для мировой финансовой системы на какие-то альтернативные. И про это я тоже много писал: одним из главных (пусть и временных) источников стали деньги развивающихся стран.

Именно после решения остановить эмиссию доллара в середине 2014 года, МВФ дал команду ослаблять валюты развивающихся стран и усиливать валюты стран развитых.

Соответственно, у тех развивающихся стран, которые эту команду выполнили например, Чехия, Азербайджан, Россия произошла значительная утечка капитала. А что утекло из капитала в национальной валюте, так или иначе, притекло в доллары.

Понимание всего вышесказанного немедленно вызывает вопрос, который мне задают по сто раз на день:

Путин что, не понимает, насколько его кидают? Собственно, девальвация в этой ситуации такая же политическая провокация против него, как и пенсионная реформа (только осуществленная ЦБ, а не правительством, но под кураторством той же самой либеральной команды, которую создала и «окормляет» элита «Западного» проекта, те самые финансисты), почему за них никто не наказан и не уволен? Или он с ними заодно?

А вот теперь представим себе, что Путин по итогам декабря 2014 года увольняет Набиуллину и назначает Глазьева. Глава МВФ Лагард выражает свое неудовольствие (как она не так давно, на Санкт-Петербургском форуме высказала свое неудовольствие предложением Курина по повышении «уровня отсечения», то есть, фактически о снижении той дани, которую мы регулярно платим для поддержки ликвидности долларовой системы) и требует внутренней экспертизы. Эксперты выносят свой вердикт: «Глазьев человек некомпетентный и финансовая система России под угрозой».

На основании этой экспертизы все рейтинговые агентства снижают суверенный рейтинг России ниже инвестиционного. Соответственно, падает рейтинг всех российских компаний (поскольку он не может быть выше суверенного рейтинга России). Рефинансирование российской экономики полностью прекращается, всем компаниям, у которых есть обязательства в долларах (даже перед российскими банками) предлагается полностью пересмотреть свои бизнес-планы в соответствии с упавшими рейтингами и выросшими рисками (это без каких-либо новых санкций!). Многим из них предлагается пересмотреть график возврата кредитов в сторону существенного сокращения времени кредитования…

Все международные банки, получив указание от МВФ, резко ужесточают контроль за деньгами российского происхождения. Нет, Боже упаси, никакой конфискации! Просто для обычного перевода денег контрагенту от вас начинают требовать все документы об источниках ваших денег: от полных балансов до оригиналов всех контрактов со всеми контрагентами на много лет назад. И пока все эти документы не будут исследованы, транзакция проведена быть не может, увы… Нет, вы можете закрыть свой счет, но вернуть свои деньги с него можно будет только после предоставления соответствующих документов… Ничего личного, только безопасность, вы же сами в ней заинтересованы, не так ли?

И это только то, что лезет в голову сразу. А есть ведь и куда более сложные схемы, которые, тем не менее могут очень серьезно подорвать нашу экономику.

И что, вы готовы, будучи на месте Путина, начать такую операцию и бороться с последствиями таких действий? Или, вы думаете, что ура-патриоты (о либеральных троллях я даже не говорю) перестанут в такой ситуации ругать Путина? Да нет же, они тут же начнут вопить, что либеральный агент Путин специально подорвал финансовую систему России, чтобы разрушить остатки оборонного и промышленного сектора…

Вот и подумайте теперь три минуты, вы сами готовы маневрировать политикой страны в такой ситуации? Я вот — не готов. Впрочем, у нас такое количество «пикейных жилетов», что умники все равно найдутся. Но здесь, на этом сайте, я их не потерплю.

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153 комментария на «МВФ рулит Россией: Почему столь сильны российские либералы и почему Путин их не трогает»

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