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Возьмёт ли Россия Балканы в свои руки?

25 апреля 2016 г.

      Автор: Илья Полонский

fototelegraf.ru Нови-Сад, Сербия

Балканы всегда были одной из важнейших точек противостояния России и Запада. Стремясь не допустить Россию на Балканы, а значит – к Средиземному морю, Запад шел на самые разные действия и ухищрения, от дипломатических интриг до кровавых войн. В XVIII-XIX вв., противодействуя растущему российскому влиянию на Балканах, Англия и Франция даже поддерживали Османскую империю, угнетавшую христианские народы полуострова. Даже соображения религиозного характера отходили на второй план перед геополитическими и экономическими интересами. Прошли столетия, но ничего не изменилось. Американские аналитики по-прежнему считают, что именно на Балканах проходит одна из важнейших линий противостояния России и Запада.

Старший научный сотрудник Института международных отношений в Праге Марк Галеотти, к примеру, считает, что Россия сейчас рассматривает Балканы как поле боя в своей «политической войне». Но западные аналитики слишком оптимистичны. На самом деле, Россия за последние десятилетия потерпела очень серьезное поражение на Балканах. Собственно, несмотря на все усилия, которые предпринимала еще Российская империя, даже в начале ХХ века позиции России на Балканах были весьма шаткими. Даже «братушки-болгары», которыми правили монархи из немецкой династии, в обеих мировых войнах выступали против России – на стороне Германии и Австро-Венгрии. Единственным действительно надежным союзником России на Балканах всегда была только Сербия. Собственно, такой расклад сил сохраняется и в настоящее время.

Возьмёт ли Россия Балканы в свои руки?

Исторически Запад опасался распространения российского влияния, во-первых, на славянское, а во-вторых – на православное население Балкан. Наиболее «неблагонадежными», с точки зрения Запада, считались всегда сербы, болгары и греки, а наиболее устойчивыми к российскому влиянию – албанцы, румыны, хорваты. Первые и вторые – в силу того, что не принадлежат к славянским народам, а третьи – в силу того, что исповедуют католицизм, а их «культурный код» исторически формировался под влиянием Западной Европы, в первую очередь – германского мира.

Стоит отметить, что даже после окончания Второй мировой войны Советскому Союзу так и не удалось добиться полного контроля над Балканским полуостровом. В Греции коммунистам так и не удалось одержать победу в гражданской войне конца 1940-х годов, причем во многом роль в их поражении сыграло нежелание Сталина ввязываться в конфликт с великими державами. В Албании и Югославии местные режимы демонстрировали полную политическую независимость от Москвы, причем югославский лидер Иосип Броз Тито избрал путь внедрения рыночных компонентов в социалистическую модель, а албанский лидер Энвер Ходжа, напротив, пошел по пути ультрасталинизма и изоляции от внешнего мира. Румыния, хотя и входила в Варшавский блок, также характеризовалась чрезмерной самостоятельностью внешней и внутренней политики по сравнению с другими странами социалистического лагеря. В полной мере советское влияние распространялось лишь на Болгарию, которую в народе даже называли еще одной советской республикой.

Распад Советского Союза внес свои коррективы в балканскую политику. Румыния переориентировалась на Запад моментально, Албания никогда и не дружила с Россией, а про непризнанное Косово и говорить нечего. В Болгарии, как и в первой половине ХХ века, к власти пришли прозападные элиты, которые выбрали антироссийский курс при сохранении дружелюбного отношения к России со стороны простых людей. Этим и характеризуется ситуация в Болгарии: верхи – против дружбы с Россией, низы – за дружбу с Россией. Югославия прекратила свое существование как единое государство, причем Словения, Хорватия, Босния и Герцеговина сразу же оказались в списке государств, довольно негативно настроенных к России. В этом нет ничего удивительного, поскольку Хорватия и Словения принадлежат к миру западнохристианской культуры, а в Боснии и Герцеговине преобладает боснийско-мусульманское население, ориентированное на Турцию и, опять же, на Запад.

Трем «осколкам» единой Югославии – Сербии, Черногории и Македонии – сама судьба велела держаться России. Все эти страны населены славянами, исповедующими православие. Исторически у России всегда были очень хорошие отношения с Сербией и Черногорией. Что получилось в итоге?

Черногория как суверенное государство появилась в 2006 году, в связи с распадом Государственного союза Сербии и Черногории. Этот союз планомерно разваливали внутренние силы, в первую очередь, черногорские, направлявшиеся Западом. Главной задачей этих сил было вывести Черногорию как страну, обладающую выходом к Адриатическому морю, из-под влияния России. Поскольку на Западе прекрасно понимают, что Россия всегда будет обладать очень большим влиянием на Сербию, там очень опасались возможности использования Россией выхода к Адриатическому морю через союзное государство Сербии и Черногории.

Используя привычную тактику развала неудобных государств, Западу удалось добиться провозглашения в 2006 году политической независимости Черногории. Что интересно, в 2008 году, как только Косово провозгласило свою независимость, Черногория оказалась в числе стран, ее признавших. Таким образом, Черногория, обладавшая общей с сербами историей, православная страна, пошла против собственных интересов и демонстративно поддержала образование на Балканах еще одного албанского государства. Стремясь окончательно закрепиться в Черногории, США в 2017 г. организовали вступление Черногории в Североатлантический альянс.

Черногорская политическая элита, принимая решение о вступлении страны в НАТО, не только отрабатывала дивиденды США. Ее заботило и сохранение возможности собственного господства в стране, что требовало наличия гарантий от возвращения в единое политическое пространство с Сербией. Интересно, что Черногория, демонстративно дистанцирующаяся от России, поглощает немалые российские инвестиции. По объемам вложений средств российских компаний и физических лиц Черногория лишь ненамного отстает от Сербии. При этом черногорские власти в последнее время строят всевозможные препятствия для российских инвесторов, опасаясь увеличения доли российского капитала в экономике страны. Естественно, что такая экономическая политика черногорского руководства обусловлена не только и не столько собственными соображениями, сколько давлением со стороны США.

Типичным примером антироссийской провокации с целью выдавливания России с Балкан является история с предполагаемой попыткой государственного переворота в Черногории, который был якобы назначен на 16 октября 2016 года – день выборов в Скупщину Черногории. В феврале 2017 года черногорские власти обвинили Россию в причастности к подготовке переворота. Согласно версии черногорских властей, целью переворота было воспрепятствование вступлению страны в НАТО, а осуществлять переворот должны были представители сербских оппозиционных сил под руководством представителей российской военной разведки.

Естественно, что Россия любые обвинения в причастности к подготовке переворота отвергла, но США тут же поспешили присоединиться к обвинениям в адрес России. В начале августа 2017 года вице-президент США Майк Пенс побывал в Черногории, выразив всестороннюю поддержку позиции черногорских властей. Черногория присоединилась и к антироссийским санкциям – опять же, себе во вред, поскольку российские инвесторы вкладывают в экономику страны большие средства, а черногорские курорты очень популярны среди российских туристов.

Еще одна православная славянская страна на Балканах – Македония, отношения с которой у России пока складываются довольно хорошо. Интересно, что Македония, в отличие от Черногории, не стала вводить санкции против России. В Македонии, как и в Сербии, есть большие проблемы с албанским населением.

Когда в конце 1990-х гг., во время войны в Косово, значительное количество косовских албанцев бежало в Македонию, вскоре местные албанцы стали выдвигать требования автономии. Дело дошло до вооруженных столкновений в марте – августе 2001 года, когда албанская Армия национального освобождения развязала партизанскую войну против македонского правительства. Угомонить албанцев удалось лишь с помощью НАТО, но риск обострения межэтнической напряженности сохраняется в стране всегда. Македония, будучи страной бедной и проблемной, в Евросоюз и НАТО не входит, хотя и участвует в партнерских программах.

Пожалуй, наиболее дружественным к России балканским государством в настоящее время является Сербия. Россию и Сербию связывают очень длительные дружеские и союзнические отношения. Для большинства сербов Россия – большой и сильный «старший брат», который остается единственной надеждой в противостоянии с враждебно настроенными соседями – албанцами, боснийскими мусульманами, хорватами. Даже современное сербское правительство вынуждено учитывать общественное мнение в стране, поэтому Сербия – одна из немногих стран Европы, воздержавшихся от антироссийских санкций, что вызывает резко негативную реакцию и в Вашингтоне, и в Брюсселе.

Евросоюз пытается заманить Сербию в «европейское партнерство», впрочем и сам президент Александр Вучич неоднократно говорил о том, что Сербия выбрала европейский путь развития. Вместе с тем, на обострение политических и экономических отношений с Россией сербское руководство не идет и вряд ли пойдет в обозримом будущем. В этом нет ничего удивительного, поскольку Россия является крупнейшим торговым партнером Сербии, занимающим четвертое место в экспорте и третье в импорте. В то же время, экономические связи России и Сербии могли быть еще более активными, если бы не отсутствие у Сербии выхода к морю. Сейчас Сербия вынуждена использовать для поставок грузов в Россию черногорский порт Бар. Пожалуй, Сербия остается в настоящее время единственным балканским государством, применительно к которому можно рассуждать о наличии российского влияния.

Греция – еще одна балканская страна, с которой у России складывалась долгая и непростая история взаимоотношений. Российская империя в свое время оказала огромную поддержку греческому народу в борьбе за политическую независимость от Османской империи. Между Россией и Грецией развивались культурные связи, впрочем и в XIX, и в ХХ вв. Запад в лице Англии, а затем и США, делал все возможное, чтобы воспрепятствовать укреплению российского влияния в Греции. И в межвоенный, и в послевоенный периоды у Советского Союза были весьма напряженные отношения с Грецией, что было обусловлено антикоммунистическим характером греческих режимов, а затем и членством Греции в НАТО. Как и в Болгарии, в Греции многие простые люди симпатизируют России, чего нельзя сказать о представителях политической элиты.

Премьер-министр Греции Алексис Ципрас в 2017 г. поддержал европейское единство относительно санкций против России, правда с «дипломатичной» оговоркой о том, что санкции дескать не должны стать для России наказанием. До этого советник премьер-министра Греции Димитриос Веланис заявлял, что в действительности Греция – против антироссийских санкций, но ей просто некуда деваться, поскольку необходимо решать другие вопросы в Европейском союзе, членом которого Греция является. И это действительно так. Экономическая ситуация в стране весьма непростая, после Арабской весны и обострения вооруженных конфликтов на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке Греция столкнулась и с наплывом арабо-африканских мигрантов. Все эти вопросы требуют скорейшего решения, а у самих Афин денег на это нет. Приходится просить средства у Евросоюза, а значит – вынужденно придерживаться того внешнеполитического курса, который диктует Брюссель.

Если говорить о региональной политике, то здесь у Греции тоже есть большие проблемы и как раз в этом направлении открываются большие возможности для сотрудничества с Россией. Греция традиционно противостоит нарастающему на Балканах албанскому национализму, с другой стороны у нее – вечный тлеющий конфликт с соседней Турцией. Несмотря на то, что обе страны входят в состав Североатлантического альянса, отношения между ними очень напряженные и за малым не доходят до открытого вооруженного противостояния. Вот бы где развернуться России, выступая в качестве заступника братьев – греков, но Афины сами выбирают свой путь, оглядываясь на Брюссель, а не на Москву.

Таким образом, нельзя не признать, что в 1990-е годы Россия оказалась буквально вытеснена с Балканского полуострова. Если у Москвы и есть шанс на возвращение в «большую балканскую политику», то произойдет это не скоро и лишь в общем контексте укрепления позиций России в мире.

Использованы фотографии: jedan-nula.com, https://regnum.ru

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