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АНДРЕЙ МАНОЙЛО: РОССИЯ В СИРИИ ОБВЕЛА США ВОКРУГ ПАЛЬЦА ТРИЖДЫ

16 марта 2016 г.

      Автор: Сергей Веселовский

      Андрей Манойло

Справка

Андрей Викторович Манойло- политолог, профессор МГУ. Занимается научными исследованиями в сфере психологических операций и информационных войн в содружестве с РАГС при Президенте РФ и исследованиями в сфере международных отношений, дипломатии и разрешения международных конфликтов в Дипломатической академии МИД РФ. В настоящее время продолжает заниматься развитием этих направлений политической науки в МГУ им. М. В. Ломоносова, на факультете политологии, где состоит в должности профессора кафедры российской политики.

Андрей Викторович Манойло не просто профессор политологии МГУ, а в прошлом сотрудник ФСБ, работавший в том числе и «на земле», так что степень его осведомлённости, как говорится в этих наших интернетах, внушаетЪ.

Политический эксперт Андрей Манойло наглядно показывает, как Россия в театре сирийских военных действий трижды обыграла американцев. Также Андрей Манойло считает, что Россия уходит из Сирии исключительно для того, чтобы там остаться.

— Андрей Викторович, зачем Владимир Владимирович выводит войска из Сирии, и что за этим последует?

—  Во-первых, сразу хотелось бы отметить, что Россия, приняв решение о выводе ВКС из Сирии, фактически сорвала банк прямо под носом у американцев.  Американцы такого расклада не ожидали. Это видно по их очень сумбурной реакции и по тем обрывочным комментариям, которые дают их официальные лица. Как правило, это не уровень первых лиц, а различные пресс-секретари, представители Белого дома, Пентагона и других подобных заведений. А дело в том, что Россия в очередной раз переиграла американцев, как мальчиков, на сирийском театре военных действий. Хотя казалось, Сирия – небольшая страна, и крупным игрокам на этом театре военных действий тесно. Они не могут двигаться, не задевая друг друга локтями, и, по большому счету, любые действия любого игрока на этом пространстве можно предугадать. Но так получилось, что Россия уже в третий раз – если первым считать ввод российских войск по приглашению Асада-  поставила американцев очень в неудобное положение глубокой задумчивости.

Они не ожидали таких действий. Второй раз был тогда, когда Россия очень долго, но тщательно согласовывала параметры режима прекращения огня. Тогда  американцы разрабатывали совместно с Россией резолюцию по Сирии, что и была принята, в конце концов, но в какой-то момент вдруг ощутили  —  совокупных сил сирийской оппозиции по списку уже будет недостаточно для свержения режима Асада. Потенциал таял на глазах, и американцы поняли, что военного решения по Сирии нет, если только не организовать военную интервенцию. Но это никто не позволит сделать. Они тогда решили перевести процесс управления сирийским конфликтом в мирную плоскость и принялись сбривать бороды сирийских оппозиционеров, возвращая боевиков в мирную жизнь с расчетом на то, что они вновь выступят единым фронтом, когда Асад победит на выборах.

У американцев был простой расклад. Но и здесь Россия их поставила в состояние глубокомыслия, когда выяснилось, что для ввода режима прекращения огня необходимо определиться со списком террористических организаций, против которых война прекращаться не должна. Очень долго согласовывала российская сторона и американская эти параметры, а за это время  ВКС России вместе с сирийской армией развернули мощнейшее наступление на позиции «умеренных» сирийских группировок и практически всех их перебили. Кроме того, вернули территории, которые «умеренная оппозиция» контролировала.

Сегодня, по большому счету, от «умеренной» сирийской оппозиции остались если не «рожки да ножки», то очень близкое к этому. Очевидно, что  в таком контексте «умеренная оппозиция», представители которой сейчас возобновили переговоры в Женеве, с большой натяжкой может представлять интересы какой-то значительной части сирийского народа. А народ в целом за Асада.

Американцы проглотили эту горькую пилюлю и решили, что в дальнейшем сработают следующим образом: постараются в регион, где продолжаются боевые действия против террористов из ИГИЛ, втянуть Турцию, что приведет к неизбежному столкновению ее с Россией. С другой стороны они собирались выдавить туда Йеменскую коалицию под руководством саудовцев. Саудовской Аравии ведь очень не нравится, что те группировки, которые она обучала, снабжала и финансировала, российская авиация разбомбила в первую очередь. Саудовцы понесли совершенно конкретные убытки. Так американцы очень надеялись зажать российские войска между турками и саудовцами. А там ситуация взрывоопасная, и один выстрел мог привести к началу войны. Вот такая ловушка для России готовилась. А Россия провела очередной ход конем – совершенно неожиданно объявила о выводе своей группировки, потому что, она выполнила свою задачу.

Далее сирийская армия с группами, которые присоединились к режиму прекращения огня, может воевать с ИГИЛ и «Джебхат ан-Нусрой» (организации запрещены в РФ – ред.). Американцы и этого совершенно не ожидали. Теперь их вся сирийская политика пошла, по сути, коту под хвост. И что делать в этой ситуации Вашингтон, наверное, не знает. Так в третий раз на сирийском театре военных действий Россия обвела американцев вокруг пальца.

— Наши аналитики с мягких диванов выдали другую версию. Они говорят – Барак Обама подарил Путину Украину, а за это Путин оставляет Сирию вместе с Асадом на произвол судьбы.

— Дело в том, чтобы оставить Сирию и Асада на произвол судьбы речи не идет вообще. Потому что, речь идет о том, что российские войска, которые участвовали в наступлении, возвращаются в Россию. А военные базы остаются. Соответственно, остаются и силы, которые будут обеспечивать безопасность этих баз. Остается ПВО, которая по прежнему накрывает зонтиком и Сирию, и большую часть Средиземноморья, и бог знает еще какие территории, поскольку  «четырехсотые» комплексы бьют очень далеко. Это, во-первых. А во-вторых, Россия, согласно резолюции  22/54 является вместе с Соединенными Штатами главным гарантом режима прекращения огня. И в любой момент Россия может вернуться, вмешаться и нанести те самые дистанционные удары по тем, кто препятствует соблюдению этого режима. На самом деле, мало что поменялось. А вот рисков для российского контингента стало намного меньше. Поэтому, Россия позиций не сдает. Как де Голль, уходя из французских колоний, поставил задачу своим генералам и министрам – уйти, таким образом, чтобы остаться. В результате, на протяжении всего послевоенного периода, вплоть до нынешнего времени, Франция управляет бывшими колониями как хочет. Мы, конечно, не уподобляемся этой неоколониальной политике, но мы уходим из Сирии не для того, чтобы уйти, а для того, чтобы остаться. И пока в Сирии не будет стабильности, российский фактор там буде присутствовать железно, нравится  это американцам или нет.

— Тем более, Валентина Матвиенко подтвердила, что вот тот волшебный документ, проголосованный Советом Федерации, никто не отменяет. Он о вводе войск и о том, что Россия оставляет за собой право…

— Именно так.

А что по Украине скажите? Заявление Обамы – это признание ошибки? Либо попытка втянуть Россию на Украину каким-то образом?

— Что касается Украины, то там ситуация совершенно особая. Я убежден в том, что американцы очень долго тренировали украинскую армию, снабжали оружием – они не сидели без дела все это время, пока Украина была на втором плане. Поэтому, ВСУ готовы к новому наступлению. И признаки этого наблюдаются  — идут сигналы из Донбасса. Они готовятся. Занимают выгодные позиции. У них идет постоянная передислокация. Американцы готовили украинскую карту к весенним событиям – когда дороги подсохнут, и проще будет вести боевые действия. Это готовилось заранее, но и российское руководство об этом знало заранее. Знало и учитывало, что где-то в начале или середине апреля американцы снова начнут разыгрывать украинскую карту. По всей видимости, те заявления, которые делает Обама в излюбленном слезливом тоне, — они, конечно, содержат нотки провокационности. Всякий раз, когда внешняя политика Белого дома и Госдепа получает очередной ощутимый удар, и они садятся в лужу, в информационном поле появляются хвалебные моменты в адрес России. Они предназначены для того, чтобы немного усыпить осторожность российских государственных деятелей, политиков, а потом попытаться затянуть Россию в очередную ловушку – например, в Украину. Ведь американцы однозначно собираются разыгрывать украинскую карту. Но им бы было очень выгодно, чтобы какие-то активные действия начались со стороны ЛНР и ДНР. Потом бы они все спихнули на происки Москвы.

— Спасибо, увидимся еще в ближайшее время.

Смотрите видео интервью ниже.

Текст подготовил Игорь Орцев

Беседовал Сергей Веселовский

Метки: , , , , , ,

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