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В последнее время на слуху в обществе вопрос создания новых укрупнённых регионов в России, нового территориального деления. Первой о необходимости укрупнения российских регионов заявила председатель Совета Федерации Валентина Матвиенко. Затем возможные варианты укрупнения озвучил сенатор Сергей Калашников. Судя по всему вопрос созрел и его вброс в информационное пространство не случаен.

Почему этот вопрос поднялся именно сейчас, чем чревато для России оставить нынешнее региональное деление в том виде, как оно существует? Какие проблемы и угрозы это влечёт? Всё говорит за то, что существующий ныне национально-территориальный принцип изжил себя и не соответствует реалиям сегодняшнего дня.

О сути вопроса и о путях его решения в статье Ирины Алкснис.

Это разминирование страны. К идее укрупнить регионы России

30 апреля 2016 г.

Ирина Алкснис     Автор: Ирина Алкснис

На днях произошло событие, вызвавшее широкий резонанс в узких кругах. Сначала председатель Совета Федерации Валентина Матвиенко сделала заявление о назревшем укрупнении российских регионов. А затем сенатор Сергей Калашников озвучил возможные варианты объединений, предполагающие, по сути, создание суперсубъектов, которые объединят в себе крупные регионы, причем речь может идти как об областях, так и национальных республиках.

Карта округов России (увеличить)

Выступление одного сенатора можно было бы списать на его личное мнение, но опыт показывает, что глава Совета Федерации озвучивает инициативы, решение по которым в Кремле уже принято и оно вступает в стадию реализации. Синхронность комментариев из верхней палаты парламента не оставляет сомнений, что речь идет о преднамеренном вбросе инициативы в информационное поле для ее тестирования и адаптации к ней общественного мнения.

Для того, чтобы понять, зачем это нужно Кремлю, вопрос «какие выгоды планируется извлечь из реформы?» является вторичным. Главным является другой вопрос: какие ключевые угрозы и проблемы несет в себе нынешнее территориальное устройство страны?

А главных угроз две.

Первая – относительно новая, советского происхождения – национально-территориальный принцип, положенный в основу значительного числа российских регионов. Именно он был той «миной замедленного действия», которая взорвалась в конце 1980-х и в итоге обозначила линии развала СССР.

Россия же по сей день несет в себе ту же угрозу.

Да, насколько возможно на данный момент, она купирована. Территориальная целостность страны строго защищена законодательно. Также в законе ликвидирована возможность создания новых территориальных субъектов (и политических партий) на этнической основе. Но опыт последних десятилетий показывает, что закон – дело не слишком надежное, и в кризисные периоды может быть легко отброшен в сторону.

Чтобы решить проблему кардинально, России надо постепенно уходить от этнического принципа деления территорий. Однако делать это надо очень деликатно, чтобы не оскорбить национальные чувства соответствующих групп. Не может быть речи ни о какой насильственности. Гипотетическое укрупнение регионов – дело постепенное, неспешное, с соблюдением всех положенных процедур, включая референдумы. Ну, а то, что первыми для объединения предложены русские области, также является прозрачным намеком, что именно им стоит подать позитивный пример в данном вопросе.

Вторая угроза – очень давняя, если не сказать древняя – специфика традиционных взаимоотношений между народом, властью и верховной властью в России. Тут мы имеем крайне запутанный клубок, в котором переплелись историческая склонность к централизации власти и автократии, общественные установки «хороший царь, плохие бояре», «строгость законов компенсируется необязательностью их исполнения» и т.д. и т.п.

Главным итогом этого «клубка» является то, что в конечном итоге руководитель государства в России отвечает за все, включая разбитый асфальт под окнами дома и длинные очереди в районной поликлинике.

Это откровенно опасная ситуация, поскольку в сложные кризисные времена, которые случаются у всех, даже бытовое недовольство людей можно обратить в политическое, что в итоге может сработать на дестабилизацию государства.

Соответственно у Кремля есть непосредственный интерес корректировать традиционное восприятие власти в российском обществе, разносить в глазах граждан сферы ответственности по разным уровням, принуждать местные и региональные власти брать на себя и нести ответственность по собственному комплекту полномочий.

Этот процесс уже идет полным ходом. Разумеется, для некоторой части регионов (вернее, их властей) подобное положение вещей не комфортно. Развитие субъектов федерации чем дальше, тем отчетливее становится не претензией и требованием к федеральному центру, а зоной ответственности региональных властей. Причем оправданий для неуспешных становится все меньше, поскольку в наличии уже достаточно большое количество примеров интенсивно развивающихся регионов, причем находящихся в похожих условиях. Почему Калужской области удалось реализовать масштабную программу реиндустриализации, а ее соседям нет? Почему Белгородская область живет существенно лучше Курской, а Липецкая – лучше Воронежской? В большинстве случаев ответ сводится к качеству управления соответствующих регионов.

В то же время, разумеется, бывают ситуации, когда депрессивность региона вызвана объективными факторами, преодолеть которые в текущем формате практически невозможно. Крошечная и несчастная Еврейская автономная область, находящаяся на самом краю географии, выглядит особенно печально на фоне куда более преуспевающих соседей, особенно Хабаровского края.

Такие объективно проблемные регионы являются в конечном итоге головной болью федерального центра. Пока, во всяком случае.

Объединение регионов позволит Кремлю купировать и эту проблему.

С одной стороны, объективно депрессивные регионы получат стимул к развитию, влившись в социально-экономическую систему более успешных и благополучных соседей. При этом ситуация на этих территориях перестанет быть проблемой Кремля, а станет заботой руководства укрупненного региона.

А с другой стороны, там, где субъекты федерации демонстрируют слабые показатели из-за плохого управления, региональные элиты получат стимулирующий «волшебный пендаль», поскольку окажутся перед фактом, что их вот-вот подомнет под себя более энергичная и квалифицированная элита соседей.

Таким образом, в пользу укрупнения регионов есть свои очень серьезные доводы. Но и риски там тоже немалые.

Очевидно, что у элит ряда регионов (как национальных, так и русских) эта идея как минимум не вызовет энтузиазма. Так что вполне можно ожидать серьезного противодействия этой идее. Вопрос только в том, какие формы оно примет. Главное, чтобы все оставалось в рамках Конституции, закона и парламентских процедур, и не приняло те или иные неконвенциональные формы.

Но тут тоже не все так просто, потому что – надо же какое удивительное совпадение! – в результате недавнего создания Росгвардии все внутренние силовые структуры, включая региональные, и контроль за оборотом оружия переподчинены напрямую федеральному центру, более того – лично президенту.

В России такие поразительные стечения обстоятельств теперь на каждом шагу.

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