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Экономика

В декабре Национальное рейтинговое агентство опубликовало оптимистичный прогноз: экономика России в будущем году вырастет на 1%, реальные доходы населения увеличатся на 2,5%, а инфляция составит 6%. Все ли на самом деле так ладно в датском королевстве, ждать ли новой волны кризиса или стабилизации ситуации?

Экономика России в 2017 году: что ждет рубль, цены на нефть и доходы населения

23 декабря 2016 г.

      Автор: Дмитрий Пятов

Экономика России в 2017 году: что рубль, цены на нефть и доходы населения?

фото: pixabay.com / PD

Корреспондент Федерального агентства новостей попросил известных экономистов России спрогнозировать положение дел в российской экономике в 2017 году. Что ждет рубль, цены на нефть и доходы населения?

Рубль-бум

Большинство экспертов отзываются о рубле исключительно в положительном ключе: национальная валюта укрепится и даже чуть-чуть поиграет мускулами. Для этого есть сразу несколько важных предпосылок.

«С рублем прогнозировать сложно. Но ясно, что общий курс идет в сторону стабильности. Мощный фактор его поддержки — оживающая цена на нефть. Многое будет зависеть от того, как будут исполняться договоренности стран ОПЕК по ограничению добычи. Мы можем увидеть по марке Brent среднегодовую цену в районе от 53 до 57 долларов за баррель. Соответственно, даже в самом худшем случае цена на марку Urals умещается в интервал от 46-48 долларов за баррель. Для сравнения: в этом году среднегодовая цена на баррель нефти колеблется в районе 41 доллара. При такой цене сохранится и спрос на российские активы, что является вторым мощным фактором поддержки рубля. Главное, чтобы не было рисков, связанных с программой Дональда Трампа, повышениями ставки ФРС, прорывом долгового пузыря в Китае. Тогда рубль будет выглядеть более привлекательно, чем многие валюты развивающихся стран», —  уверен экономист Института современного развития Никита Масленников.

Получи, народ, зарплату

Рост ВВП России в 2017 году может составить 1,5%. Такой прогноз составил президент Сбербанка Герман Греф. Вторит ему и Банк России, заявляя, что к началу 2017 года инфляция в стране будет не выше 7%, а к концу года и вовсе снизится до 4%.

Экономика России в 2017 году: что рубль, цены на нефть и доходы населения?

фото: Федеральное агентство новостей / Степан Яцко

«Что касается инфляции, то у ЦБ остается цель добиться ее уровня в 4%. Это достижимо, но нужно учитывать настроения и ожидания бизнеса. Пока средняя экспертная оценка сводится к показателям в 4,5-4,6%, но отразится в динамике доходов и реальных зарплат, которые будут плавно возрастать и дадут прирост в 1,5-2% по отношению к уходящему году. Темпы же экономического роста зависят от цен на нефть, но впадать в нефтяное благодушие не стоит. Эти более высокие цены на нефть быстрее приближают нас к пределу потенциальных выплат, он составляет примерно 2%. Предположим, цена на Urals будет 50 долларов за баррель, тогда ВВП может получить и 1,5% роста. Но это будет означать, что мы быстро выйдем на плато, где без взвешенной экономической политики будем оставаться долгие годы. Моя оценка темпов роста на следующий год — плюс процент в лучшем случае. Все зависит от того, как быстро включатся частные инвестиции. Это будет зависеть от темпов роста инфляции, от сохранения и исполнения бюджетной дисциплины», — продолжает Масленников.

Санкции «в длинную»

Важным вопросом остается и санкционный. Приход к власти президента США Трампа вживил в сердца российской элиты надежду: ожидается, что ограничительные меры могут исчезнуть уже совсем скоро, что на экономике России отразится только положительно.

«В своих прогнозах надо исходить из того, что пока санкции останутся. Вероятность их смягчения или даже отмены усиливается, но это тоже для нас как некий подарок судьбы, фактор, который способен нас демобилизовать. Оценка ущерба от санкций дается где-то в 0,6-0,8% недополученного ВВП. Но это ведь тоже возвращается не сразу: лаг возвращения составляет год-полтора. Сразу непосредственного эффекта в 2017 году экономический рост не почувствует. Это уже история 2018 года и последующих», — добавляет Масленников.

А вот проректор РАНХиГС и заслуженный экономист РФ Андрей Марголин считает, что нужно не оглядываться на санкции, а посвятить следующий год тому, чтобы подготовить нашу экономику к более высоким темпам роста в 2018-19 годах.

 «Предпосылки для этого есть. Инфляция будет снижаться, с рисками мы будем управляться и процентные ставки будут падать. Возможно, начнут запускаться те механизмы, которые уже себя оправдали. Не понимаю, почему в три раза не увеличить объем финансирования Фонда развития промышленности, который дает деньги «в длинную» под достаточно низкие процентные ставки. Почему нельзя расширить программу проектного финансирования, которая себя тоже хорошо зарекомендовала? Нажатие на инвестиционную педаль — главная предпосылка экономического роста. Российская экономика не может выдержать долгого периода полупроцентного и однопроцентного роста. Президент Путин уже всем поставил задачу: наша экономика должна расти более высокими темпами, чем мировая», — говорит он.

Жить станет лучше

Важный вопрос в беседе с корреспондентом ФАН поднимает и экономист, заведующая кафедры стратегического планирования и экономической политики факультета государственного управления МГУ Елена Ведута. По ее словам, Россия не должна по-прежнему сидеть на сырье и поглядывать на нефтяные котировки, а развивать разные виды производств, что позволит с минимальными затратами выпускать то, что нужно россиянину.

Экономика России в 2017 году: что рубль, цены на нефть и доходы населения?

фото: Федеральное агентство новостей

«Хватит нам уже увлекаться субъективными оценками, экономика — это расчет показателей «выпуск» и «затраты». Мы хотим выпустить конечный продукт для людей, мы считаем затраты. И такой расчет почему-то стал немодным, а на его место приходят обсуждения того, как делить бюджет, какие развивать программы и инвестиционные проекты. Включается множество людей со своими экспертными оценками, получается полный субъективизм. В конечном счете за рублем стоит развитие нашего потребительского рынка, с его улучшенным качеством товаров, с большим выпуском продукции. Рубль едва ли сильно вырастет, но резких падений быть не должно. Несмотря даже на то, что золотовалютные резервы сокращаются, а спекулянты всегда могут вывезти валюту из страны. Экономика имеет только одну цель — улучшение жизни людей», — комментирует специалист.

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