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Наверно мало кто может потягаться с нашим президентом в искусстве ведения политической интриги. Вот и на сей раз он глубоко озадачил западный истеблишмент своим очередным указом, касающимся приостановки действия соглашения по плутонию. Но вопрос стоит шире- либо полноценное сотрудничество, либо «кто не спрятался- я не виноват». 

«Россия встала с колен и расправила плечи, и многим это не нравится».
Бывший начальник Генштаба ВС РФ генерал армии Юрий Балуевский (день сегодняшний)

 

Россия не просто расправила плечи, Россия неудержимо пошла вперёд и нет теперь таких препятствий, которые бы она не преодолела.

И хочется надеяться, что в Европе всё таки есть здравые силы, которые понимают все правильно и наконец осознали дилемму— продолжать лизать сапоги Белому Дому, подводя мир на грань нового глобального противостояния или попытаться подтолкнуть Вашингтон к новой Ялте и вернуть в этот мир хоть какой-то порядок.

Молодца Наш Президент, всегда умеет оказаться в нужном месте в нужное время!

С Днём Рождения, Владимир Владимирович! Здоровья и Удачи в делах на благо Отечества! Виват!

 

Комментарий: От холодной войны Light — к холодной войне-2

4 октября 2016 г.

Константин Эггерт     Автор: Константин Эггерт

Справка

Константин Эггерт — российский журналист, ведущий программ телеканала «Дождь». Автор еженедельной колонки на DW. Константин Эггерт в Facebook: Konstantin von Eggert.

Кремль презирает Обаму, надеется на Трампа и в обозримом будущем намерен лишь наращивать конфронтацию с Западом, пишет в комментарии специально для DW Константин Эггерт.

Владимир Путин и Барак Обама обмениваются рукопожатием
Владимир Путин и Барак Обама, сентябрь 2015 года

Владимир Путин ответил сразу и Бараку Обаме с Джоном Керри с их претензиями по поводу российской политики в Сирии, и нидерландской комиссии по расследованию катастрофы малазийского «Боинга». Законопроект о приостановке действия соглашения с США от 2000 года об утилизации излишков плутония, отправленный Кремлем в Государственную думу, впервые на моей памяти увязывает сугубо технические вопросы ядерного разоружения с чисто политическими требованиями: отменить «закон Магнитского», снять санкции и компенсировать понесенный от них ущерб. Мол, если американцы сделают это, то Москва возобновит действие договора.

Основной же смысл послания, по мнению Эггерта — это расставить все точки над i с будущей американской администрацией, дабы предложение либо провести «Ялту-2», либо окончательно разойтись с «партнерами».

"Уважайте свои угрозы!"

Совершенно ясно, что руководство США, даже если бы хотело, то не смогло бы выполнить ни одно из этих условия без риска конфронтации с Конгрессом и цунами критики в СМИ. Путин это прекрасно знает. Он намеренно выдвигает Белому дому неприемлемые требования. Президент России одновременно презирает Барака Обаму за слабость и не любит за самоуверенность.

Над Джоном Керри, который глубоко убежден в своих способностях убедить кого угодно в чем угодно, и Кремль, и Смоленская площадь откровенно потешаются все эти годы. Чтобы понять, какие чувства госсекретарь США вызывает в Москве, достаточно вспомнить, как Сергей Лавров с усмешкой вручал ему в виде подарка корзинку с сочинскими овощами.

Указ и законопроект, обнародованные в понедельник, — откровенная демонстрация того, что с нынешней американской администрацией Кремль больше никаких дел иметь не будет. Возникает впечатление, что президент России буквально подначивает Вашингтон: «Ну, хоть одну свою угрозу приведите в исполнение!» Привели. Керри объявил об отказе от дальнейших консультаций с Россией по сирийскому вопросу.

Это никого в Москве не опечалит. В Сирию, по некоторым сообщениям, уже доставлены зенитно-ракетные комплексы С-300. Думаю, в ближайшие дни стоит ожидать нового штурма Алеппо сирийской армией при российской поддержке с воздуха уже безо всякой даже формальной оглядки на то, что думают по этому поводу в Белом доме и Госдепе.

Послание Трампу и Клинтон

Но только откровенным афронтом Обаме и Керри этот шаг Кремля не ограничивается. Адресат послания — и будущая американская администрация, и Запад как таковой. Договор об утилизации плутония выбран не случайно. Во-первых, в Москве давно считают, что Россия сделала больше для его выполнения, чем Америка, которая внезапно посчитала предлагаемые договором методы утилизации радиоактивного материала неприемлемыми.

Во-вторых, сам по себе документ в данном случае — яркий символ того, что теперь для Москвы нет запретных тем, и она готова поставить под сомнения любые договоренности постсоветской, перестроечной и даже советской эпохи.

Из Договора об обычных вооружениях (ДОВСЕ) Россия фактически вышла. Своими действиями в Крыму и Донбассе Кремль показал, что и Заключительный акт Хельсинкского совещания по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе 1975 года с его положением о нерушимости европейских границ для Москвы больше неважен. Не удивлюсь, если скоро российское руководство официально объявит о том, что больше не считает его обязательным для России документом.

Ялта-2?

Кремль нагнетает напряженность для того, чтобы заставить следующую администрацию США либо пойти на уступки, либо оказаться перед лицом дальнейшей конфронтации с непредсказуемыми последствиями. Программа максимум для Кремля — добиться новой grand bargain, «большой сделки» о разделе сфер влияния в Европе и на постсоветском пространстве.

Политологи любят называть этот проект Ялта-2, по имени Ялтинской конференции союзников по антигитлеровской коалиции в феврале 1945 года. На ней Сталин, Рузвельт и Черчилль решали судьбы послевоенной Европы.

Кроме того, в Москве надеются, что, как это бывало и при советах, и после войны 2008 года с Грузией, НАТО и ЕС рано или поздно скажут: «Давайте оставим наши разногласия по Крыму, Украине и Сирии за скобками и возобновим ограниченное сотрудничество». Это могут быть, например контакты военных по линии НАТО, или обмен информацией по борьбе с терроризмом, или содействие правительству Афганистана.

Никаких признаков того, что Запад на это согласится, пока нет. Однако в Москве думают, что все изменится к лучшему после 20 января 2017 года, когда состоится инаугурация нового президента США, особенно если это будет Дональд Трамп.

Но даже если Вашингтон и европейцы займут жесткую позицию, Путин не собирается отступать. Фактическое увеличение секретных статей бюджета на 700 миллиардов рублей, объявленное в понедельник, 3 октября, может означать лишь одно: российское руководство готово перейти от холодной войны Light  к полномасштабной холодной войне-2.

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