Мысли вслух

Мысли вслух

От первого лица

Дайте человеку цель, ради которой стоит жить, и он сможет выжить в любой ситуации.
(Иоганн Вольфганг Гете)

 

У человека должно быть хотя бы на два гроша надежды, иначе жить невозможно.
(Бертольд Брехт)

 

Единственный человек, способный оседлать народный протест – это Путин

6 апреля 2017 г.

      Автор: Иван Ваганов

26 марта Фонд по борьбе с коррупцией Алексей Навального объявил в сотне городов России акцию «Он нам не Димон!» против коррупции в высших эшелонах власти (во многих городах она прошла несмотря на запрет властей – прим. ред.). Народ эту волну подхватил, правда, значительную часть протестующих составляли школьники и студенты. О причинах уличных протестов в России и стихийных попытках различных политических сил объединиться вокруг антикоррупционных митингов «Колоколу России» рассказал экономист, аналитик, в прошлом замначальника экономического управления президента РФ Михаил Хазин.

Картинки по запросу     Михаил Хазин

Справка

Михаил Леонидович Хазин- российский экономист, статистик, публицист, журналист, теле- и радиоведущий, бывший чиновник администрации президента.

«Колокол России»: Михаил Леонидович, каково ваше мнение по поводу возможного объединения левых и правых сил на фоне процессов, идущих сейчас в нашем обществе?

Михаил Хазин: Вы употребили очень правильное слово – «процессов». Фактически речь идет о том, что и левые, и правые силы годами не могут ничего предложить обществу. Левые просто ничего не делают, а правые за что выступают? За еще большую либерализацию экономики? Первая либерализация привела к приватизации, а вторая к чему приведет? Слово «либерализм» уже стало ругательным в нашем обществе.

Теперь и левые, и правые захотели оседлать народный протест, о причинах которого мы еще поговорим. Получилось не очень убедительно, потому что ни левых, ни правых на протестных митингах видно не было. Более того, в ряде городов России при попытках обсудить с демонстрантами, кто такой Алексей Навальный (формально – человек, претендующий на организацию протестных акций 26 марта – прим. ред.), многие участники протестов недоумевали: «Это вообще кто такой?»

Таким образом, нам имеет смысл говорить не об объединении левых и правых, а о попытке оседлать независимо от них возникший протест.

КР: Ну вот например, первое лицо Изборского клуба Александр Проханов заявил, что смена курса так или иначе произойдет – либо путем революции снизу, либо путем смены кадров сверху. Фактически он высказал идею, что «Манежная» и «Болотная» могут объединиться, и благодаря патриотическим силам в итоге у нас будет антикоррупционное, суверенное, непрозападное правительство.

М.Х.: Начнем с того, что силы, которые считаются левыми, всегда пользовались патриотической риторикой, апеллировали к великой Советской империи. Другое дело, что при этом они были совершенно не готовы защищать трудящихся, бороться за права народа – то есть реально делать те вещи, которые и должны делать левые.

Что касается правых, то надо понимать, что у нас есть правые, которые защищают некоторые демократические ценности, а есть и такие, которые защищают капиталистических лидеров, то есть такой обобщенный Запад. По сути, они являются компрадорами.

В 1917 году, который ныне часто вспоминают, тоже было две силы, направленных против сословной империи – правые компрадоры, организовавшие Февральскую революцию, и патриоты-государственники, организовавшие Октябрь. При этом как раз Октябрьскую революцию сделали возможной высшие военные чины и примкнувшие к ним левые.

Победа левых произошла, собственно говоря, только после Гражданской войны. То есть совершенно не исключено, что компрадоры-капиталисты, бежавшие после октября 1917 года, начали бы продавать Россию оптом и в розницу. Классический образчик – перешедший на английскую службу Александр Колчак, который начал за английские деньги отбирать у России Сибирь и Дальний Восток.

Так вот, если бы не было Гражданской войны, которую начали силы, скинувшие царя, и которых самих скинули в октябре, я не исключаю, что коммунистическое правительство бы просто не сформировалось и не взяло бы всю власть, проведя столь жесткие реформы.

В нынешней ситуации мы видим похожую картину. Имеется вполне патриотический бизнес, которому не дает развиваться компрадорская «приватизационная элита». И все попытки как-то ограничить эту элиту пока к успеху не приводят. В данном случае я склонен считать, что у патриотически ориентированного бизнеса и у левого движения есть много общего. Главное, у них есть общий враг – элита, сформировавшаяся в 90-е годы в эпоху приватизации.

КР: Бытует такое мнение, что сами протесты против коррупции – это хорошо, а то, что их возглавляет Навальный или Ходорковский – это очень плохо. Как вы к этому относитесь?

М.Х.: Нет, Навальный не возглавляет эти протесты, не говоря уже о Ходорковском. Я уже говорил, что большая часть протестующих про него никогда не слышала. Он интересен разве что нескольким процентам населения в крупных городах.

Давайте поговорим о причинах протеста. Это важная тема. Нынешние акции носят такой же характер, который был в советском обществе в конце 80-х годов, начиная с 1988 года. Он связан с тремя базовыми причинами. Во-первых, с резким ухудшением жизненного уровня населения. Сейчас продукты на прилавках есть, но у людей нет денег, при этом жестко отбираются оставшиеся средства. Повышаются тарифы и налоги, фактически ликвидируется малый бизнес, у людей отбирают банковские сбережения. Фактически государство начинает вести себя как враг по отношению к обществу.

Во-вторых, из всех СМИ идет тотальная ложь. Люди пытаются объяснить государству, что так вести себя нельзя, а их демонстративно игнорируют.

Наконец, в-третьих, в российской власти образовался слой людей, которые ведут себя абсолютно не в соответствии с общепринятыми традициями, культурой. Они не просто воруют – воруют, как известно, везде. Но они делают это абсолютно безнаказанно, в нереально больших масштабах и совершенно не отвечают по своим формальным чиновничьим обязанностям.

Тут возникает уже психоэмоциональный аспект. Почему именно эти, бездарные чиновники, которые ничего не умеют, у которых все валится из рук, почему они наделены правом безнаказанно хапать? И когда за два дня до этих протестов, 24 марта, руководитель ЦБ Эльвира Набиуллина открыто и нагло лжет, заявляя на всю страну, что кризис закончился – она что, не понимает, что тем самым провоцирует людей, жизнь которых ухудшается каждый день, выйти на площадь?

У нас с начала 2017 года масштаб ипотеки упал на 40%. У людей просто нет шансов заработать на квартиру – вот что их волнует. Но волнует ли это кого-то во власти?

В конце 80-х у нас в стране не было агентов ЦРУ, не считая отдельных членов политбюро. Не было и интернета с соцсетями. Но люди все равно выходили, просто потому что каждый видел ухудшение жизни в своей тарелке на столе, потому что власть на эти ухудшения никак не реагировала, и были люди во власти, которые при этом еще демонстративно нажирались.

И люди тогда тоже вышли на площадь с требованием навести порядок. Не секрет, что большинство изначально поддержали ГКЧП, но оказалось, что сидящие в ГКЧП ребята просто не способны что-либо поменять.

КР: Но на сегодня выходит, что нет конструктивной силы, способной оседлать протест? Если представить себе стихийный народный бунт, кто же в итоге окажется на вершине власти?

М.Х.: У нас есть один человек, который может оседлать этот протест – это президент Владимир Путин. Для этого он должен начать совершать некоторые действия. Надо понимать, что та сила, которая сегодня разрушает нашу экономику, общество, государство – это миллион человек, контролирующих все ресурсы. Ликвидация их по влиянию на ситуацию в стране будет равна Октябрю 1917 года. И эти люди неминуемо попытаются защитить свои активы.

КР: Как же они будут их защищать?

М.Х.: Мы видим это на примере Михаила Ходорковского. Фактически он объявил войну государству, сначала украв у народа деньги, а потом, когда у него эти средства отобрали, подал в суд на Россию из-за рубежа, чтобы вернуть награбленное. Вы думаете, что остальные будут вести себя по-другому? Те, у кого в свободном распоряжении найдется достаточно средств, тут же сколотят себе частные армии, как это делали Колчак, Деникин и так далее. Точнее, их спонсоры. Если вы думаете, что Путин этого не понимает, вы ошибаетесь.

КР: Вы сейчас описали сценарий после «революции сверху». В итоге мы возвращаемся к словам Проханова… Значит, есть всего два варианта – изменения произойдут либо волевым политическим решением сверху, либо путем давления снизу.

М.Х.: Да, вообще в таких ситуациях всегда есть только два варианта. Революция снизу – это будет аналог 1991 года. В любом случае должен появиться некто, кто возьмет на себя инициативу. Пока эта инициатива в руках у Путина. Он находится в позиции Горбачева 1988-89 годов. Тогда у последнего были все возможности, чтобы изменить ситуацию, однако он ничего не делал и довел страну до взрыва. Надо понимать, что сегодня очень похожая история. Уже очевидно, что эта «приватизационная элита» 90-х во власти ничего менять не собирается.

КР: Вы помните, в прошлом году было заседание правительства по исполнению майских указов президента. Затем представители Общероссийского народного фронта официально заявили, что большая часть поручений Путина саботируется кабмином.

М.Х.: Да, и это ни для кого не секрет. В свое время я создавал в Администрации президента реальный механизм по контролю за указами первого лица. Он был ликвидирован в 1998 году и с тех пор не восстанавливался. Я просто знаю, что правительство игнорирует указы президента.

КР: Но совсем недавно президент фактически одобрил деятельность той же Набиуллиной, представив ее кандидатуру главы ЦБ на новый срок. Также он высказывал поддержку правительству Медведева, несмотря на саботаж его собственных указов. Почему это происходит?

М.Х.: Я не думаю, что президент одобряет деятельность Набиуллиной в разговорах с глазу на глаз. Не исключаю, что он требует от нее и от правительства каких-то изменений. Он не может начать ругать вслух – ведь тогда надо их всех увольнять. Эти люди реально обеспечивали экономический рост в 2000-е годы. При этом Путин не является специалистом в экономике, он может не понимать, что ранее работавшие в ней механизмы теперь не работают. Если же начнутся повальные увольнения, в элитах может разразиться гражданская война, которой президент очень хочет избежать.

Но сегодня народные выступления четко показывают, что бездействие в любом случае приведет к гражданской войне. И по этой причине Путин должен либо принять важное решение, либо сложить с себя всякую ответственность за происходящее.

КР: Но народ-то давно ждет такой «чистки рядов» в исполнении президента… Надо думать, что этот шаг Путина получил бы всестороннюю поддержку.

М.Х.: У народа попросту нет ресурсов. Легко сказать – вот вы, допустим, увольняете Набиуллину, а на следующий день вам отключают систему SWIFT. Ведь на скачках курса рубля к доллару конкретные люди занимаются конкретным бизнесом с доходом в миллиарды долларов. И что им стоит вынуть из кармана пару миллиардов, чтобы поддержать Набиуллину? А у «альтернативщиков» в экономике таких денег просто нет.

КР: То есть все попытки здравых патриотических сил объединиться – пустое занятие? Вот недавно на Московском Экономическом Форуме собирались с этой целью, просто назову вам несколько фамилий: экономист Валентин Катасонов, генерал Леонид Ивашов, герой Новороссии Игорь Стрелков, политолог и экономист Юрий Болдырев, лидер партии «Великая Россия» Андрей Савельев. Они пытались вывести хотя бы какую-то общую повестку дня... Вы к таким попыткам всегда относитесь скептически?

М.Х.: Поймите, что сейчас все решает Путин. Это объединение с целью громче сказать, что в правительстве и ЦБ сидят идиоты? Ну куда уж дальше? Их уже неоднократно называли компрадорами, идиотами, разрушителями экономики страны. Но у них был железный ответ: «Мы обеспечиваем лояльность МВФ и иностранные инвестиции. Вы на это готовы? Нет? Тогда молчите в тряпочку».

И такая позиция имела право на существование, пока иностранные инвестиции обеспечивали экономический рост, а МВФ давал кредиты. А сегодня все иначе, и это не на время, а навсегда. Это значит, что модель нужно менять, менять вместе с теми, кто эту старую модель олицетворяет. И народ, собственно, выходя на улицы, обращается к Путину, демонстрируя ему, что старая экономическая модель больше не работает и не может обеспечить для народа приличный уровень существования.

КР: Я так понимаю, что они хотели объединиться, чтобы в перспективе взять власть, которая может пошатнуться или даже упасть вследствие ширящихся народных протестов…

М.Х.: Нет, так власть не берут. Если протесты поднимутся до такого уровня, что будут представлять реальную угрозу власти, то я вас уверяю, что возглавлять их будут совсем другие люди.

КР: Кто же это будет?

М.Х.: Сложный вопрос. Опыт показывает, что в большинстве случаев ими оказываются персоны, стоящие около действующей власти. На примере 1917 года я уже говорил, что в реальности власть в Октябре взяли генералы генштаба. Но поскольку они не были хозяйственниками, экономистами и т.д., то решили назначить в качестве управленцев команду большевиков. А результат мы знаем – Гражданская война, которую выиграли большевики. И выиграли не потому, что у них был хитрый марксистский план, а потому, что они оказались самыми оголтелыми ребятами. Им просто нечего было терять, а в Гражданской войне только такие и могут выиграть. Но сейчас нужно приложить все усилия, чтобы обойтись без гражданской войны.

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187 комментариев на «Всё решит Президент: Роль компрадорского Правительства Медведева и Эльвиры Набиуллиной в разрушении экономики страны»

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