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Пенсионная реформа правительства как презентация стартапа

4 июля 2018 г.

Наталия Теряева    Автор: Наталия Теряева

Раз уж мы живем в рыночных условиях капитализма, предлагаю отвлечься от эмоций и рассмотреть предложение правительства РФ о повышении пенсионного возраста как предложение стартапа (нового проекта) инвестору.

Инвестор – это мы, народ, на чьи капиталы в виде пенсионных накоплений претендует стартапер в лице нашего правительства.

Как должен действовать стартапер, согласно рекомендациям разного рода акселераторов бизнеса?

Стартапер (правительство) должен предъявить инвестору (народу) готовый для реализации проект с указанием ясной, конкретной цели проекта, проблемы, которую эта цель решает, с описанием качеств производимого проектом продукта, с расчетом стоимости продукта, его целевой аудитории, его места на рынке, его стейкхолдеров и антистейкхолдеров, его конкурентов. Обязательно нужно описать команду исполнителей проекта, жизненный цикл проекта и конкретный срок его реализации. И еще один важный пункт: что будет делать стартапер, если его гипотеза решения проблемы с помощью выдвигаемого проекта окажется ложной.

Если стартапер пропустит хоть один из перечисленных параметров проекта, инвестор не станет даже рассматривать его заявку на финансирование. Чтобы не тратить зря время. Потому что время – деньги.

Что предъявил нам стартапер 14 июня?

Цель проекта назвал 14 июня на заседании правительства РФ его председатель Дмитрий Медведев: «обеспечить нормальный уровень жизни пенсионерам, причём на долгосрочный период».

Нормальный уровень жизни председатель правительства предложил обеспечивать путем увеличения пенсий россиянам средней прибавкой в 1000 рублей к нынешнему среднему размеру пенсии россиянина 13 200 рублей в месяц. «Мы должны их увеличивать темпами выше инфляции, вне зависимости от внешних обстоятельств и внутренних проблем», – сказал о пенсиях Медведвев. Но не упомянул даже оценочных параметров темпов инфляции, а также не дал никакой оценки влияния на пенсии внешних обстоятельств и внутренних проблем.

Ставим презентации цели минус.

Продукт. Что инвестор, то есть народ, должен считать продуктом проекта Правительства? Прибавку к пенсии в размере 12 000 рублей в год тому, кто, откладывая выход на пенсию, только за один год отдает правительству 13 200 × 12 = 158 400 рублей?

Ни о каком другом продукте в правительственном проекте повышения пенсионного возраста для сегодняшних россиян речь не шла.

Презентация продукта получает минус.

Расчет стоимости продукта размером 12 000 рублей в год нам тоже не предъявили. Почему нормальный уровень жизни пенсионеров Медведев оценил именно прибавкой в одну тысячу рублей к месячному размеру пенсии, а не в 10 тысяч рублей или не в 100 тысяч? Вот вице-премьер Правительства Ольга Голодец в феврале текущего года утверждала, что нормальная пенсия должна составлять 25 тысяч рублей, а не 14 200 (с будущей прибавкой тысячи рублей в месяц к сегодняшней средней пенсии). «Я напомню, что в стратегии заявлен уровень, который мы должны достичь, – в 2,5 прожиточных минимума. В сегодняшних ценах это около 25 тыс. рублей. К такой пенсии в сегодняшних ценах мы должны стремиться, такой пенсии сегодня мы должны достичь», – сказала Голодец в интервью ТАСС на полях Российского инвестиционного форума в Сочи 15 февраля.

Расчету тоже минус.

По сведениям википедии, Ольге Голодец, возглавлявшей до работы в правительстве РФ негосударственный пенсионный фонд «Норникеля», была назначена ежемесячная пожизненная пенсионная выплата в размере 200 тысяч рублей. Обществу известны и другие лица с шестизначным размером пенсии. Они тоже получат прибавку к пенсии 1000 рублей в месяц? Это к слову о целевой аудитории проекта повышения пенсионного возраста и его месту на рынке.

Целевая аудитория – минус.

Кого отнесем к стейкхолдерам проекта повышения пенсионного возраста – то есть к тем, кто вовлечен в проект и заинтересован в его осуществлении? Конечно, Пенсионный фонд РФ, министерство финансов, лично председателя правительства, главу Счетной палаты. Вовлеченность остальных федеральных министерств, а также региональных и муниципальных чиновников в этом проект, безусловно, будет наблюдаться. Вопрос же заинтересованности всех, кроме ПФР, Минфина и двух упомянутых руководителей, остается спорным: не перевесят ли государственные проблемы от повышения пенсионного возраста преимущества этого решения. Вряд ли государство выиграет, если в повседневную жизнь россиян войдет фраза Ильфа и Петрова «Еще один сгорел на работе» параллельно с оборотом «Умер без работы, не дожив до пенсии».

Стейкхолдеры презентовались сами – ставим плюс.

С антистейкхолдером, то есть противником осуществления проекта нашего старапера, ясность полная. Антистейкхолдеры – все, кто работает в провинции и получает зарплату ниже 40 000 рублей. То есть большинство населения России. Потому что средний доход населения России в 2017 году составил 31475 рублей в месяцОсновными видами доходов населения России, по данным за 2017 год, являются: оплата труда (включая скрытую) – 65 %, социальные выплаты – 20 %, доходы от предпринимательской деятельности – 8 %, доходы от собственности – 6 %, прочие доходы – 2 %. Итого, антистейкхолдеров проекта повышения пенсионного возраста в России набирается 85 % работающего населения страны, согласно отчету Росстата «Социально-экономическое положение России» за 2017 год.

Про антистейкхолдеров наш стартапер на презентации умолчал. Жирный минус.

Командой проекта, очевидно, предлагается считать весь состав правительства РФ. А жизненным циклом проекта – срок работы этого состава правительства. Однако, и это тоже не вполне ясно.

Команда – минус.

Вот чего нет у проекта нашего стартапера, так это конкурентов внутри России. Цинизм и бесчеловечность – это еще самые мягкие эпитеты, которыми характеризуют проект стартапера его инвесторы, они же антистейкхолдеры, они же – большая часть целевой аудитории.

Отсутствие конкуренции на поле цинизма в плюс не запишешь.

И самое главное: наш стартапер с самого начала не обозначил проблему, которую решает проект, требующий денег у инвестора – то есть у народа. Какую государственную проблему решает повышение пенсии в 13 200 рублей в месяц на 1000 рублей?

А раз не обозначена проблема, то стартапером не предлагается и другая гипотеза ее решения: например, поискать решение проблемы в другой плоскости, проявить креативный подход, сгенерировать новую нетривиальную идею.

Подведем итоги рассмотрения проекта стартапера, который требует у инвестора денег на решение не описанной инвестору проблемы путем очевидного ущемления интересов инвестора:

По всем пунктам презентации проекта стартапер получает отрицательное мнение инвестора.

Инвестор в такой ситуации не может принять решение финансировать презентованный стартапером проект. Но дает стартаперу надежду и предлагает перед началом нового проекта ясно сформулировать проблему, которую он будет решать. И дает подсказку.

Проблема – не в низких пенсиях большинства россиян, она – в несоразмерно высоких доходах меньшинства россиян.

Теперь стартапер может ставить правильную цель проекта, прорабатывать его детали и снова обращаться к инвестору за финансированием. Милости просим.

P.S. ув. редакции:

Раз уж было предложено отвлечься от эмоций — скажем, что такую вещь как пенсионная реформа удачно не презентуешь.

При этом заметим, что сами базовые выкладки, на которых она основывается — не опровергают даже ее категорические критики (те, кто в принципе не уходит в глухой ресентимент).

И при этом признаем, что до публики идеи правительства были донесены в довольно обидной форме:

в последнее время в элите, кажется, принято общее мнение, что попытки популярных разъяснений только ослабляют позицию власти.

Между тем, хотя бы внятное разъяснение того, что пенсионные отчисления граждан — это не вклады на депозит, по которым положены проценты, а просто налог на содержание уже имеющихся пенсионеров, сильно прояснило бы ситуацию и исключило бы все квазибухгалтерские выкладки, которыми сейчас полон интернет и из которого следует, что «каждый получит меньше пенсии, чем отчисляет».

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