Мысли вслух

Мысли вслух

От первого лица

Признайтесь, Уважаемые читатели, положа руку на сердце, что далеко не всем Вам знакомо такое понятие, как «Петля анаконды» применительно к политике. Поэтому прежде, чем Вы продолжите чтение, хочу дать краткую справку об этом, скажем так- пунктирную выжимку, чтобы было понятно, о чём пойдёт речь ниже.

Справка

«Петля анаконды»- если очень коротко, то это «война на удушение», комплекс политических, экономических и военных мер против государств, не желающих подчиняться диктату государства, претендующего на роль их хозяина. Сам термин обязан своим названием журналистам,освещавшим ход Гражданской войны  США между Севером и Югом. Авторство проекта приписывают генералу Уинфилду Скотту, придумавшему схему блокады и удушения южан.

Именно такую гибридную войну ведёт сегодня Запад во главе с США против России. Чем «хороша» по-своему такая война? Она, как считают ее вдохновители, достаточно безопасна для запускающих ее и не слишком провокационна, с болью, но без крови. Однако если Запад ждет, что за его софт ему ничего не будет, в худшем случае дуэль на шпагах, с перьями на шляпах, то он глубоко заблуждается- к нему, за его «доброту», рано ил поздно явится Ласковый Миша с дубьем. Вроде не эстетично, но эффективно – закон тайги. То есть для непонятливых и впечатлительных: мягкая сила может обернуться жестким ответом.

Против стран со средней и малой военной мощью такая «дипломатия канонерок» срабатывает. Но против ядерной державы, каковой является Россия, с отнюдь не с самыми слабыми, как это иногда пытаются представить, силами общего назначения подобная политика изначально, на уровне задумки Уинфилда Скотта и дальнейшего планирования, безрассудна.

Превращение США после Первой мировой войны в «сверхдержаву» породило у американских исследователей потребность усилить концепцию «Морской Силы» обоснованием необходимости контроля над береговыми территориями Евразии. Эта потребность была реализована в виде геополитической концепции атлантизма, одним из ее авторов выступил Николос Джон Спайкмен (1893—1943) — американский ученый голландского происхождения, первый директор Йельского института по изучению международных проблем.

Вот что говорит об этой концепции сам Спайкман:

  • «В мире международной анархии внешняя политика должна иметь своей целью прежде всего улучшение или, по крайней мере, сохранение силовой позиции государства. Сила в конечном счете составляет способность вести успешную войну, и в географии лежат ключи к проблемам военной и политической стратегии. Территория государства — это база, с которой оно действует во время войны, и стратегическая позиция, которую оно занимает во время временного перемирия, называемого миром. География является самым фундаментальным фактором во внешней политике государства, потому что этот фактор — самый постоянный. Министры приходят и уходят, умирают даже диктаторы, но цепи гор остаются непоколебимыми».

Спайкман подчеркивал: осью геополитики является римленд — евразийский пояс прибрежных территорий (маргинальный полумесяц) — это морские страны Европы, Ближний и Средний Восток, Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион. Формула мирового господства устами Спайкмана звучит так:

  • «Тот, кто доминирует над римлендом, доминирует над Евразией; тот, кто доминирует над Евразией, держит судьбу мира в своих руках».

Ну вот, после такой артподготовки можно перейти и к прочтению статьи, написанной Григорием Игнатовым о войне в Сирии и её последствиях.

Война в Сирии выходит далеко за рамки  Ближне- Восточного региона и является составной частью глобальной политики, которая определяется прежде всего противостоянием России и США в масштабах всего мира.  Автор статьи предлагает довольно необычный взгляд на войну в Сирии и её роль в дальнейшей судьбе России и всего Евразийского континента.

Война в Сирии: Россия рвёт «петлю анаконды»

6 июля 2016 г.

      Григорий Игнатов

Россия в Сирии не только защищает мирных жителей от «государства Иблиса», но и разрушает планы США по удушению Евразии — разрывая так называемую «петлю анаконды».

Картинки по запросу конашенков

Конфликт в Сирии, как уже осознали практически все, это не «еще одна ближневосточная война», а крупное геополитическое столкновение сверхдержав – России и США. Именно в геополитической плоскости нужно искать стратегические ответы при осмыслении участия России в Сирийской войне, и тогда кажущаяся многим скучной борьба за власть между вечно шумными арабами откроет для нас, россиян, поистине насущные перспективы.

«Что мы делаем в Сирии?» — как и любая «заморская война», сирийский конфликт побуждает задавать этот вопрос. Ответов много, от официальных до конспирологических, но все они либо не замечают главного, либо умалчивают о нем. Вот, например, вполне убедительный ответ, скорее всего – фактически верный, но полный ли?

Военный источник Федерального агентства новостей (ФАН) в Сирии Ахмад Марзук (Ahmad Marzouq), комментируя появление в числе активных «игроков» конфликта новой группировки с незамысловатым названием «Новая сирийская армия», пишет:

  • В этом случае сбудется мечта американских геополитиков, желающих проложить через территорию Ближнего Востока магистральный нефте- и газопровод, который станет прямым конкурентом для европейских магистралей Газпрома, таких как «Северный поток-1», «Уренгой-Помары-Ужгород», «Ямал-Европа» и других. Кроме того, реализация такого плана поставит под сомнение целесообразность строительства проектируемых сейчас газопроводов, таких как «Северный поток-2», «Южный поток» и других".

Силами проамериканской и просаудовской НСА, Запад стремится сейчас, на манер Второго фронта в годы Второй Мировой, отхапать побольше территории у распадающегося ИГИЛ, чтобы не досталось Асаду.

Справка (от Admin)

«Новая сирийская армия» (НСА) — военизированное формирование, созданное США, Катаром и Саудовской Аравией в 2015 году из дезертиров Сирийской арабской армии (САА) и находящаяся полностью на их содержании. НСА  является частью большого боевого подразделения под названием Фронт самобытности и развития. Командует фронтом Халед аль Хамад, человек, абсолютно преданный саудитам и откровенным террористам. Среди союзников НСА числится группировка «Джебхат ан-Нусра», признанная во многих странах мира, включая Россию, террористической. Основная цель создания НСА не столько борьба против Башара Асада, сколько захват и удержание части сирийской территории, по которой должен пройти магистральный газопровод из Катара в Турцию. Подробнее читайте здесь.

Допустимо ли сводить весь смысл участия России в сирийском конфликте к недопущению возникновения газопровода из Катара в Турцию? Мне кажется, нет. И к сохранению власти Башара Асада – нет, это не самоцель. И даже к «борьбе с мировым терроризмом» — тоже нет. А к чему же, в таком случае? «Что мы делаем в Сирии?».

Чтобы ответить на вопрос, посмотрим на две карты. Они очень похожи, отличаются в деталях:

Картинки по запросу 3 я мировая война

Геополитическая карта Спайкмэна

Что на них изображено? Даже интуитивно можно понять, что нечто очень неприятное для России.И это верно! На картах – так называемая «петля анаконды», она же – концепция Спайкмэна под названием «римланд».

Давайте вспомним базовые термины и тезисы классической геополитики. Хартленд (Heartland) – «сердцевинная земля» Мирового Острова, Евразии – это место занимает Россия. Геополитика отталкивается от константы противостояния Суши и Моря, причем Суша – это, прежде всего, Россия, а Море – англосаксонские страны во главе с США. Изыскивая способ одолеть Сушу, Море постепенно пришло к стратегии не вторжения, а блокады и удушения. Этот план получил в 19 веке название «петля анаконды», служа стратегией северных штатов по удушению южан в Гражданской войне в США:

Картинки по запросу anaconda dessin

Стратегия в итоге сработала, если не став главной причиной победы Севера, то, как минимум, существенно ее упростив. В 20 веке американский геополитик Николас Спайкмэн в 1940 году написал книгу «География мира» («Geography of Peace»), в которой излагал концепцию «римланда» — дуги, охватывающей Хартленд, изолируя его от Мирового океана, и, одновременно, подводя к его границам военные базы Моря. На второй карте, если вы обратили внимание, у России даже «оттяпали» Камчатку и Чукотку, абсолютизируя ее изоляцию от Моря. Правда, Спайкмэн был не в курсе, что Северный Ледовитый океан вскоре станет вполне судоходным, но сути концепции это не меняет – в годы Холодной войны она легла в основу американской стратегии окружения СССР своими военными базами от Турции до Японии. Это стало второй версией «петли анаконды».
В мире постоянно происходят перемены, политические и технологические, но константы геополитики остаются неизменно актуальными: Море «подтапливает» Сушу. Что же делать Суше? Что делать России?
Ответ очевиден: разрубить «петлю анаконды». Вклиниться в кольцо блокирующих стран, чтобы затем расширить плацдарм своего влияния. Слабость блокады в ее непременной тотальности: едва в заборе появляется «выломанная доска», как смысл всей ограды исчезает.
На украинском сайте «Хвыля», который выгодно отличается в сторону относительной вменяемости от прочих свидомых СМИ, появилась интересная статья интересного автора. Автор – Сергей Удовик, неплохой аналитик и публицист, и даже — о ужас! — не особый русофоб, пишет следующее:

  • «Однако наиболее ощутимый удар по стратегии Маккиндера был нанесен Россией в Сирии. Вопрос заключался не просто в безумном желании спасти Асада (вряд ли нужного России) и сохранить для показухи базы в Латакии и Тартусе, а также продемонстрировать силу и возможности своих Военно-космических сил (ВКС) и испытать новые образцы оружия. Россия получила в Сирии неизмеримо больше. Она поставила под контроль 1) нефтегазовые потоки со стороны сунитских стран во главе с Саудовской Аравией в Средиземное море и ЕС; 2) газопровод из Катара в Турцию; 3) из курдского Киркука в Израиль и др. Через Абхазию и Грузию Россия может контролировать потоки из Азербайджана в Турцию, что ставит энергетику Турции под полный контроль. Также через свою базу в Сирии Россия может контролировать безопасность Нового Суэцкого канала (см. Китай) и базы Британии на Кипре (см. карту)".

  • «Россия не только с малыми затратами стала ключевым игроком на Ближнем Востоке, потеснив США, но и сформировав зону»А2/AD", закрыла Сирию для Турции и получила возможность изучать трекинг и характеристики американской и европейской военной авиации. Также Россия разрушила планы Эрдогана воссоздать Османскую империю".

Как видим, контроль над возможным катарско-турецким газопроводом тоже включен в список российских побед, но им одним дело далеко не исчерпывается! Цели России куда более обширны – и в совокупности само ее присутствие в Сирии дает нашей стране мощные геополитические бонусы во всей совокупности военных, экономических и политических факторов. Не Римланд уже довлеет над Хартлендом, а напротив – Хартленд расширяет свое влияние, смещая акценты принадлежности «спорных территорий».

«Сирийский прорыв» американской «петли анаконды» стал наглядным свидетельством геополитической «переоценки ценностей». Хартленд уже не просто обороняется, он перешел в контрнаступление. На очереди – новые «слабые звенья» составной американской змеюки, им придется испробовать на себе силу русского молота.

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