Мысли вслух

Мысли вслух

От первого лица

Россия еще раз доказала, что она серьезная страна, что было особенно очевидно на фоне метаний США, уступок и заламывания рук европейцам.

Год побед. Что дальше?

15 января 2017 г.

     Сергей Караганов

Справка

Караганов Сергей Александрович- российский политолог, экономист. Декан факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики НИУ ВШЭ. Почётный председатель Совета по внешней и оборонной политике. Главный российский эксперт по «холодной войне». Основатель и председатель Редакционного совета журнала «Россия в глобальной политике». Входит в состав Совета при Президенте РФ по содействию развитию институтов гражданского общества и правам человека. 

В начале 2014 года во время рождественских каникул, когда было уже ясно, что противостояние с Западом еще более обостряется, перечитал «Войну и мир». Поразила фраза, которую я раньше пропускал: «Сражение выигрывает тот, кто твердо решил его выиграть». Тогда понял, что Россия решится и выиграет.

Американские танки бродят по Европе. Ничего хорошего от этого ждать не приходится. Фото: FILIP SINGER

Американские танки бродят по Европе. Ничего хорошего от этого ждать не приходится. Фото: FILIP SINGER

Спустя три года с удовлетворением могу констатировать: перелом произошел. Проигранные битвы за Смоленск (дважды — в 1812-м и в 1941-м), Аустерлиц; с огромным трудом, но выигранные Бородино, Сталинград и Курск уже позади. Опасностей много, все еще слаба экономическая база, слишком медленно начинаются реформы, борьба с коррупцией, смена элит. Но во внешней политике Россия выстояла и побеждает практически по всем направлениям, качественно укрепила свои международные позиции. Помогли воля, объединение большинства народа и элиты, блестящая дипломатия, способность к стратегическому предвидению.

Начинают создаваться условия для формирования нового более справедливого и устойчивого мирового порядка.

России снова начало везти. Стабилизировались на приемлемом уровне нефтяные цены. Сыплются одна за другой силы во внешнем мире, сделавшие ставку на ее поражение, открыто заявлявшие о стремлении «разорвать» ее экономику, «сменить режим» или заставить изменить политику санкциями, «изоляцией» или «стратегическим терпением».

Но везет сильным, и российские победы во многом рукотворны. Они результат реалистической оценки мира и адекватных решений.

Когда во второй половине 2000-х гг. грузинский конфликт и решение НАТО открыть дорогу для членства Украины и Грузии, шедшая по нарастающей дестабилизация Ближнего Востока, попытка реванша начавшего проигрывать Запада сделали очевидным увеличение вероятности новой масштабной войны, была начата эффективная военная реформа. Когда пришло время для прямого политического противодействия, мало у кого появилось желание повышать ставки.

Почти двадцать пять лет наша страна балансировала на грани «Веймарского синдрома», чувства уязвленности и несправедливости, навязывавшегося политикой Запада. Но в отличие от Германии 1930-х гг. в него не свалилась, дала политический бой, выстояла и становится победителем. Многообещающая метаморфоза случилась и с другой частью сознания лидирующей части российской правящей элиты и большинства населения. На протяжении последних 300 лет геостратегически и культурно они ощущали себя и свою страну периферийной частью Европы.

С 2011 — 2012 гг. резко активизировался поворот России к растущим экономическим и политическим рынкам Азии. На него наложилось обострение политического и идейного противостояния с постмодернистской Европой, во многом по сути забывшей свои ценностные корни. Пришло понимание того, что Евросоюз вошел во всеобъемлющий кризис, делающий его малоперспективным политическим партнером. Увидев все это, Россия ментально превратилась из провинции Европы в центр поднимающейся Евразии, в консервативную, но устремленную в будущее глобальную, атлантико-тихоокеанскую державу, надеюсь, без глобальных обязательств помимо поддержания мира и обеспечения коренных российских интересов.

Удачной пока оказалась сирийская операция. Относительно экономно удается не только добиться политических целей, в том числе положения предела практике «смен режимов». Через участие в реальных боевых действиях укреплена и воочию продемонстрирована новая мощь вооруженных сил, что усиливает сдерживание. К тому же России удалось сместить навязанное противостояние в сферу, где она эффективнее, — ума, воли и жесткой силы.

После многочисленных попыток запустить мирный процесс с западными странами он запущен с участием важнейших региональных держав — Ирана и Турции. До того твердой политикой удалось урегулировать отношения с Анкарой. Она извинилась за сбитый российский истребитель. А Россия еще раз доказала, что она серьезная страна, что было особенно очевидно на фоне метаний США, уступок и заламывания рук европейцам.

Пока удалось избежать безнадежного и глубокого втягивания в конфликт, о чем открыто мечтали недоброжелатели.

Вне зависимости от того, как закончится сирийская гражданская война, а она может длиться бесконечно долго, победив вместе с силами законного правительства в Алеппо, Россия утвердила за собой статус ключевой региональной для Ближнего Востока и глобальной державы. А без него большинство русской элиты и общества, отравленные со времен Петра сладким ядом великодержавия, чувствовали себя неуютно. Восстановлен и мировой баланс, слом которого после временного ухода СССР с мировой арены превратил НАТО, раньше оборонительный союз, в агрессора в Югославии, Ираке, Ливии.

Самым острым направлением атаки или контратаки проигрывавшего с конца 2000-х гг. Запада была сфера информации, где он до сих пор удерживает ключевые позиции. А в «мягкой силе», как считалось, его позиции выигрышны: образ жизни относительно свободных и, главное, богатых западных обществ считался более привлекательным. Пропаганда против России с 2013 г. стала тотальной: хороших или просто корректных новостей о России практически не транслировалось.

Но и здесь начался перелом. Россия начала выигрывать, несмотря на подавляющее численное преимущество СМИ оппонентов. Неправды было столь много, что вся западная пропаганда стала казаться лживой.

Главную роль в переломе сыграли несколько обстоятельств. Твердая и спокойная политика России. Ее лидеры в отличие от западных коллег до ругани не опускались. Россией были предложены жизнеспособные и привлекательные для большинства народов и стран принципы: защита национального суверенитета, свобода политического и культурного выбора, укоренившиеся в многотысячелетней истории человечества нормальные ценности в общественной и личной жизни. Этот набор ценностей оказался немалой «мягкой силой».

Помогла и мощная консервативная реакция против навязывания постмодернизма, ультралиберализма и глобализации на самом Западе и во всем мире. Россия встала, в отличие от СССР, на «правильную сторону истории».

Информационный перелом 2016 года выразился в том, что Запад из информационного и политического наступления перешел в оборону. Кампания о всемогущих «российских хакерах», способных подорвать политические структуры Запада, показала его внутреннюю, ранее скрывавшуюся слабость.

Теперь главное не поддаться «головокружению от успехов».

Еще важнее запуск экономического роста и развития, чтобы не отстать в очередной раз от начавшейся технологической революции. Экономическая слабость провоцирует внешнее давление.

Собственно, во внешнеполитической сфере стратегический курс на ближайшие годы достаточно очевиден, во всяком случае для меня, и в той мере, в какой возможно планирование в мире головокружительных перемен.

Необходимо продолжение модернизации вооруженных сил, но с уменьшением расходов на нее. О чем, собственно, уже заявил В.В. Путин. Достигнутые успехи, уверен, послали достаточный сигнал всем.

Военно-политическое сдерживание ослаблять нельзя. Исторически проигрывающие элиты уже не могут послать авианосцы или угрожать «кнопкой». Но провокации будут. Они в злобном отчаянии. Будут делать все возможное, чтобы помешать российско-американской нормализации.

Требует качественного развития, укрепления экономическая дипломатия.

Пошел процесс делиберализации и даже частичной деглобализации и политизации мировой экономики. Конкуренты постоянно обвиняют Россию в умелом применении экономического оружия. К сожалению, в значительной степени облыжно.

Теперь о конструктивной повестке дня. Надо продолжать с убыстрением развивать наш «поворот на Восток». Теперь уже и с Японией, вовлекая Южную Корею, страны АСЕАН.

И, разумеется, необходимо развивать крупнейшее достижение последних лет — де-факто стратегический союз с Китаем. Особенно учитывая неизбежность попыток «растащить» нас, которые, и вполне рационально с ее точки зрения, будет предпринимать новая американская администрация.

Конкуренция с США не уйдет. Может быть и острой, и даже опасной. Но приход новой администрации, которая хочет сконцентрироваться на подъеме самой Америки, создает окно возможностей для нормализации отношений, выстраивания их на основе интересов и балансов. Им стоит попытаться воспользоваться.

Рациональной была бы ведомая двумя странами политика уничтожения (запрещенного в РФ) ИГИЛ, поддержки существующих государств и режимов. Любое ослабление государственности, особенно в столь уязвимом регионе, доказанное зло.

Стоит попытаться договориться с американцами и о предотвращении ремилитаризации Европы, и так становящейся все более хрупкой из-за углубляющегося кризиса Евросоюза.

Наконец, есть и необходимость снизить остроту военно-стратегического противостояния. Не через контрпродуктивные или устаревшие разоруженческие переговоры, а через широкий диалог всех ядерных держав по укреплению и стабилизации ядерного сдерживания.

Пора, наверное, оставить позади реакционный идеализм мечтаний о ядерном разоружении, понять, что ядерное сдерживание, несмотря на все его опасности, главное, что спасло мир от катастрофы в прошлом и спасает его сейчас в эпоху ошеломительно быстрых и опасных изменений, появления новых вызовов, в частности киберугроз.

В ближайшие годы, нарастив свой восточный потенциал, став полноценной, нацеленной в будущее тихоокеанско-атлантической державой, России стоит начинать думать и о «ремонте» отношений с Европой, испорченных жадностью и бездумием соседей.

Большие договоренности с ЕС представить трудно. Но разговоры вести стоит для облегчения создания нового партнерства Большой Евразии, которое должно включать и Европу. Немедленно же целесообразно развивать отношения с ведущими странами, способствуя дальнейшей изоляции или самоизоляции сил из ушедшей эпохи.

Не стоит реанимировать старые провалившиеся переговорные форматы, на которые будут затягивать партнеры, для них они были удобны. Возобновление политического диалога Россия — НАТО ошибка, граничащая с умиротворением и легитимизацией агрессора. Диалог Россия — НАТО стоит переориентировать на военный уровень — на предотвращение инцидентов; ОБСЕ — на координацию борьбы с терроризмом, киберугрозами, незаконной миграцией, защиты внешних границ, предотвращение и урегулирования кризисов — украинского и весьма похоже будущих внутри-европейских.

Украинская ситуация пока безысходна. Стоит, продолжая настаивать на выполнении Минских договоренностей в полном объеме, строя обходные транспортные магистрали, сделать ставку на опережающее предоставление высокой степени автономии ДНР в границах Украины, а через шаг вести дело к формированию нейтральной, независимой, дружественной России Украины или украин, если Киев не сможет удержать контроль над всей территорией нынешней страны. Единственный способ ее выживания — превращение из субъекта соперничества в мост и буфер.

Старый мировой порядок разрушен. Надо начинать строить новый. Думаю, что он будет мягко двухполярным. Один полюс — вокруг США, другой — Большая Евразия, где будет экономический лидер Китай, но не будет гегемона. Пекин будет уравновешиваться Москвой, Дели, Токио, Сеулом, Тегераном, Джакартой, Манилой.

Но нужен и орган глобального управления для абсолютно нового мира, для поддержания в нем безопасности, избежания глобального конфликта.

Совет Безопасности ООН незаменим. Но несет в себе инерцию ушедших времен.

Думаю, что рано или поздно другого, похоже, не дано, мир вернется к концепции «концерта наций». Сначала, если получится, «большая тройка» Россия — Китай — США. Затем к ней должны были бы примкнуть Индия, Япония, возможно, Бразилия и какая-то из ведущих европейских стран, если ЕС вернется к координируемой политике суверенных государств, а не «единой», сводящей его к политическому «нулю».

Возвращаюсь к исторической параллели из начала статьи. Если Аустерлиц и Бородино, Сталинград и Курск действительно позади, то лучше не идти на Париж, как в 1814-м, или на Берлин в 1945-м. А прямо в Вену 1815 г., к новому, устремленному в будущее «концерту наций», строя структуру управления для нового мира. Без такого «возвращения к истокам» хаос будет нарастать и рано или поздно сорвется в катастрофу для всех.

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