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Продолжается интрига по выработке стратегии развития экономики России. После оглашения концепций наступило время вступать в бой аналитиков, чем они и воспользовались, хотя эти концепции и раньше не были обойдены вниманием. Стали озвучиваться нашими СМИ мнения как ведущих экономических экспертов, так и людей, мягко говоря, далёких от экономики, но спешащих засветиться на столь выгодной теме и внести свою лепту в процесс обсуждения. Ну что ж, флаг им в руки и барабан на шею, а мы со своей стороны почитаем и послушаем и будем не спеша делать свои выводы. Всегда полезно знать мнение разных сторон по обсуждаемому вопросу. В приводимой мной ниже статье делается попытка анализа двух концепций, антиподов друг другу. Автор рассуждает об экономике, и хотя по образованию он юрист, но позиционирует себя как директор института актуальной экономики. Для меня это ровным счётом ничего не говорит, поскольку таких всевозможных институтов в России расплодилось немерено. Хочу заметить, что хотя он и старается быть якобы объективным, но ему это не очень удаётся и прослеживается его симпатия к программе Кудрина, но само содержание анализа представляет определённый интерес и позволяет взглянуть на предлагаемые концепции с интересного ракурса. Почитать об авторе  этой статьи можно здесь и здесь. Довольно своеобразного мнения придерживается об авторе писатель и публицист Николай Стариков, о чем можно прочитать тут. Предоставляю Вам  возможность прочитать и делать выводы самим согласно своим убеждениям и вкусам.

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Кудрин против Глазьева

31 мая 2016 г.

Nikita Isaev.jpg    Автор: Никита Исаев

Справка

Исаев Никита Олегович- Директор Института актуальной экономики, кандидат юридических наук, действительный государственный советник Российской Федерации 3 класса. Преподаватель кафедры предпринимательского права Московской Государственной юридической академии имени О. Е. Кутафина (МГЮА). Председатель Президиума Политического совета Партии «Родина».

Кого пытаются спасти ведущие экономисты страны?

Кудрин против Глазьева

Алексей Кудрин

Сергей Глазьев

Одно из самых ярких событий в мире российской экономики, да, пожалуй, и политики — это недавнее заседание президиума Экономического совета при Президенте Российской Федерации. Хоть в итоге точный вектор развития и не был определен, но в сегодняшних реалиях само рождение дискуссии по пути выбора экономической стратегии развития страны уже большое дело. До этого от правительства мы слышали лишь слова да единогласные обнадеживающие заявления.

Казалось бы, цель у всех одна — спасти положение и поднять экономику страны с колен. Вот только методы первые умы государства предлагают разные, да и приоритет, кого и как спасать, — тоже. Так, например, два главных и всегда активно спорящих друг с другом российских экономиста Алексей Кудрин и Сергей Глазьев до сих пор и не пришли к общему знаменателю. Впрочем, общее у них все же есть — обоих персонажей вернули на главную сцену в момент кризиса и тупика, в котором оказалось правительство, не имеющее какой-либо решительной и определенной позиции по выходу из сложившейся ситуации.

Видно, что Глазьев искренне пытается спасти положение народа, дать мощный стимул к развитию реального сектора экономики, с особенным упором на сектор малого и среднего бизнеса — основу любого успешного государства. Кудрин же, а вместе с ним и министр финансов Силуанов, и министр экономического развития Улюкаев — люди правительства. У них главная задача — обезопасить власть да и конституционный строй в целом, не дать правительственной машине остановиться.

Но парадокс в том, что, какими бы благими на первый взгляд намерениями ни руководствовался тот же Глазьев, в итоге мы видим, что его программа несет в себе труднореализуемые, а в некоторой части даже фантастические для текущей обстановки предложения. Иллюзорная идиллия его программы может быть исполнена только на бумаге, в документах, не обремененных подробными расчетами и анализом последствий. И здесь сразу появляется фора у программы Кудрина — она отталкивается от того, что малейшая ошибка и неоправданный риск могут привести к тяжелейшим последствиям, от которых Россия еще не скоро оправится.

Пока что ни одна из сторон — ни Кудрин с программой постепенных всеобъемлющих реформ, ни Глазьев с программой количественного смягчения — не получила карт-бланш на реализацию своих идей. Но если быть реалистами, то в сегодняшних условиях, которые лучше всего охарактеризовал самый честный политик современной России премьер-министр Медведев: «Денег нет, держитесь здесь, всего хорошего» — предпочтительней для государственной власти выглядит позиция Кудрина, реально оценивающего текущее состояние экономики. То, что реформы придется проводить в условиях жесточайшего дефицита средств, — это факт, и с ним придется жить. Так что готовимся «держаться». На данный момент дефицит бюджета уже оценивается не в запланированные 2,3 трлн рублей, а в 4 трлн рублей. И опыт человека, который смог в кратчайшие сроки погасить внешний долг, оставшийся в наследство от СССР, здесь как нельзя кстати. На счету Кудрина не один профицитный бюджет. Концепция экономического блока может быть непопулярной в народе, но, скорее всего, именно она будет выбрана в качестве ключевой. Предложение Глазьева влить в экономику 7,5 трлн рублей заранее создает неустранимые перекосы. По его задумке государство должно выделить эти средства в виде дешевых кредитов (минимум в 2 раза ниже рынка) на развитие бизнеса и целевых инвестиций. Получается, что мы вбрасываем в экономику огромные средства, не создавая условий для реализации потенциала. На предоставленные средства будет закуплено опять-таки импортное оборудование (не может же отечественное быть создано в одночасье), выпустят в какой-то момент побольше товаров, а дальше как? Спрос от этого моментально не образуется.

Представьте, что у вас есть свое небольшое производство, и у вас вдруг возникает возможность взять недорогой кредит. Как тут его не взять, ведь его ждали столько лет? Затем вы обновляете оборудование, что-то выпускаете и сталкиваетесь с тем фактом, что спрос не изменился. Долги есть, а прибыли как не было, так и нет. В итоге получим множество предприятий-банкротов, рост безработицы и рост инфляции. Во всем мире, в тех же США, Европе и в Японии стимулирование промышленности идет параллельно со стимулированием спроса. Доступные кредиты предоставляются всем, и населению в том числе. Кроме того, денежные вливания там начинают только в условиях очень низкой инфляции — ниже целевых 2%. А у нас хорошо, если будет 8% в этом году. В Европе сейчас инфляция и вовсе принимает отрицательные значения. И тут мы снова возвращаемся к вопросу, где взять деньги.

Расходовать запасы в виде Резервного фонда и Фонда национального благосостояния — так их просто не хватит на все. Их совокупные запасы на 1 мая 7,64 трлн рублей. Минус 4 трлн дефицита федерального бюджета — остается чуть более 3,5 трлн рублей. А ведь еще надо компенсировать дефицит Пенсионного фонда. Обращаться за помощью к внешним кредиторам и идти по пути Греции? Спасибо, не надо. Видели, к чему это приводит, — Греция чуть не стала собственностью Германии за долги. В итоге мы только попадем в зависимость от внешних кредиторов и увеличим расходы бюджета на возврат долгов. Не просчитали последствий и, таким образом, поставили крест на правильной в общих чертах идее развития реального сектора экономики через малое и среднее предпринимательство.

Теперь посмотрим, как обстоят дела с тратами в программе Кудрина. Триллионов рублей она не требует, здесь другая цена и другие риски — прежде всего политические. Проведение реформ судебной системы, управленческой системы и снятие административных барьеров не требуют колоссальных затрат. Как отмечают многие предприниматели, главное — не мешать им работать. Даже Владимир Путин отмечал, что ведение судебных разбирательств относительно предпринимателей в большинстве случаев приводит к закрытию бизнеса даже несмотря на то, что только 15% дел заканчиваются обвинительным приговором. Сколько денег ни дай, в таких условиях развиваться не получится.

Кудринские реформы охватывают большой пласт ведущих сфер жизнедеятельности государства и общества, однако на слуху в основном повышение пенсионного возраста. Мера сейчас крайне несвоевременная, но надо признать, что в будущем она неизбежна. Справедливости ради нужно отметить, что Алексей Кудрин предлагает и действия, направленные на социальную справедливость распределения льгот, на возврат накопительной части пенсии, за которую выступает порядка 70% населения. Но это все чаще оставляют за скобками, муссируя непопулярные меры экономии. Очевидно, что многим по советской привычке хочется жить за счет государства, не неся никакой ответственности. Но сегодня страна не может больше позволить себе прежнюю вальяжность и созерцательность. Нам приходится действовать хоть и осторожно, но быстро и предельно жестко. Поэтому кто-то должен был взять право голоса и стать своеобразным «громоотводом», отразив ожидаемое недовольство большой части граждан тем фактом, что жить придется теперь более прижимисто. Очевидно, что роль такого «громоотвода» именно господину Кудрину и уготована.

Сегодня любая необдуманная мера может нанести непоправимый ущерб благосостоянию населения и даже поставить под удар конституционный строй Российской Федерации. Голодные бунты нам не нужны, поэтому очевидно, что запускать реформы необходимо в самое ближайшее время. Однако, к сожалению, ни один из предложенных планов не идеален. Глазьевский слишком рискованный, почти авантюрный, ему не хватает проработки возможных последствий. Слабое же место кудринского плана — отсутствие проработки методов проведения реформ. Без четкого планирования, постановки ясных целей и строгого контроля здесь не обойтись. Собственно, изобретать велосипед необходимости нет. Многие методы уже разработаны, вопрос, скорее, в том, как их совместить, чтобы усилить эффект, а не свести на нет. Даже источник финансирования на самом деле не самая большая беда. Нужные суммы можно получить путем высвобождения неэффективных расходов. Нет необходимости уповать на новые источники доходов, для модернизации экономики достаточно перераспределить имеющиеся ресурсы.

Бесконечное затягивание разработки (после заседания совета были определены приблизительные сроки разработки новой программы — год) приведет к тому, что концепция к моменту создания будет уже неактуальной. Без срочных и решительных мер мы просто будем перекрашивать развалившийся забор, рисуя на нем названия провалившихся стратегий-2020, 2030, 2035...

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