Мысли вслух

Мысли вслух

От первого лица

Трезвое и взвешенное мнение профессионального аналитика на происходящее в кулуарах российской власти. То, что Президент сегодня повязан по рукам и ногам либеральной закулисой во власти, не вызывает больших сомнений. И речь идёт не о том, что де бояре плохие, а царь хороший, всё намного сложнее и глубже и Путину приходится ой как нелегко в его лавировании между интересами олигархата и народа. Чем закончится противостояние Путина с его немногочисленной командой и олигархата и пятой колонны, рвущихся к власти и пытающихся установить свой единоличный диктат и бесконтрольное право распоряжаться судьбой России? Очевидно, что ответ на этот вопрос мы получим не раньше, чем закончатся выборы. И от того как поведёт себя Президент, а то, что им будет вновь избран Путин, у меня не вызывает сомнений, будет зависеть не только будущее России, но и отношения между властью и народом и в конечном итоге процветание и независимость нашего Отечества.

Картинки по запросу Время

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ДИССОНАНС

15 декабря 2017 г.

     Автор: Леонид Ивашов

Справка

Ивашов Леонид Григорьевич- военный эксперт, российский военный и общественный деятель, генерал-полковник. Специалист в области геополитики, конфликтологии, международных отношений, военной истории. Президент Академии геополитических проблем. Доктор исторических наук, профессор кафедры международной журналистики МГИМО. 

Фото: Артем Сизов/«Газета.Ru» Президент России Владимир Путин во время ежегодной пресс-конференции в Москве, 14 декабря 2017 года

Общее впечатление от большой пресс-конференция Путина таково. Президент уверенно чувствовал себя в международных вопросах — вопросах международной политики и военной безопасности России, — потому что есть конкретный результат, есть высокая степень ответственности Министерства обороны, Министерства иностранных дел, где работают профессионалы. И поэтому на все международные вопросы Путин отвечал довольно чётко. Чувствовалось, что он владеет ситуацией, что он контролирует процессы, что Россия в этом направлении движется более-менее уверенно.

А что касалось проблем социально-экономических, внутренних наших проблем — здесь впечатление противоположное. Что ни вопрос из социальной сферы, что ни вопрос об экономическом состоянии страны, положении населения — здесь везде провалы. Пиком демонстрации неблагополучного состояния внутри страны явилось то, что директор крупнейшего рыбного предприятия из Мурманска прорывается не в правительство — нет, туда ходить бесполезно, — а прорывается под видом журналиста на пресс-конференцию, чтобы перед первым лицом поставить сложнейшую проблему, которая связана и с производством, и с занятостью, и с ценами на морепродукты. Это уже крик, это фиксация того, что в этих сферах — неблагополучие.

Уже ночью мне удалось услышать комментарии некоторых министров, руководителей, отвечающих за конкретные участки работы. И что мы услышали от господина Меня на вопрос: «Почему растут цены на ЖКХ, почему услуги ухудшаются?». Он абсолютно никакой ответственности за собой не признал. Цитирует нам законодательные нормы и говорит о том, что нужно вроде как улучшать законодательство. То есть это совершенно пустые люди (почти всё правительство такое), которые какие-то нормативные акты продвигают, подправляют, но далее ничего не делают, чтобы они были реализованы. А значит, эти люди не профессионалы, они не могут организовать большой процесс.

Но в то же время я слушаю президента — а он правительство оправдывает, даже хвалит. Причём апеллирует не к состоянию отраслей. Например, система образования валится, ухудшается процесс обучения, люди из школы идут в институты почти неграмотными — никто за это не несёт ответственности. Я не услышал, что сегодня главная сфера приложения усилий правительства — это образование, школьный учитель — главная фигура в Российском государстве, в обществе. Здесь никаких мер не принимается. Мы видим, где место науки — она на обочине. «Родное» правительство принимает стратегически важные решения, не опираясь на научный анализ, на научный прогноз, на научную разработку, на научное проектирование, работая методом тыка и, скорее всего, во главу угла ставя не развитие России, а интересы каких-то группировок, прежде всего олигархических.

Президент пообещал, что в ближайшие дни он обнародует свою программу, и мне хочется понять — в чём он видит развитие страны? Потому что пока всё сводится к инфляции, к ВВП, к бюджету и так далее. Но это всего лишь инструменты, подпорки для развития — развития образования, развития личности, развития науки, развития культуры, развития технологий. И мне кажется, что человек с его процессом развития отошел у президента на второй план. 

Иногда прорывались вопросы про реальное положение дел. Один из журналистов просто прокричал, что ситуация с оптимизацией медицины — это кошмар и катастрофа. На что мы услышали мягкие психотерапевтические слова: да, есть проблемы, нужно что-то делать. Также был крик души, что офицеры в военном городке получили квитанции на услуги ЖКХ в 50 тысяч рублей. И тоже мы услышали мягкие убаюкивающие ответы.

Впечатление, что мы живём в параллельных реальностях. Владимир Владимирович в той, где прекрасный Центробанк, шикарное правительство, самая низкая чуть ли уже не в мире инфляция и необыкновенный рост промышленного производства. А из другой, суровой реальности изредка прорываются крики снизу.

Это чувство когнитивного диссонанса я испытываю давно и анализирую: что же происходит?

Мы должны осознать — сущность власти исходит от собственности. В чьих руках собственность, тот и осуществляет власть. И власть сегодня в руках олигархата. Меня шокируют данные статистики. С 2014 года, когда ввели санкции против России, мы все, подавляющее большинство народа, потеряли треть доходов. И в то же время у 90 самых богатых семей, которые владеют 70% наших богатств, доходы увеличились на 38%. И мы за эти три года стали рекордсменами мира в выращивании олигархов. У нас появилось в условиях кризиса, в условиях санкций 17 новых долларовых миллиардеров. И поэтому и президент, и правительство заставляют народ обслуживать олигархический слой.

Может быть, ключевой момент пресс-конференции был следующим. Корреспондент «России-24» поднял вопрос о пятой колонне в России. На что Путин отшутился. Даже вообще посчитал вопрос о пятой колонне шуткой. Ответ Путина звучал так: «Вот вы всё шутите — пятая колонна, караул, хватай чемодан, вокзал уходит». Вот и всё, что он посчитал нужным сказать о страшной опасности России, о раковой опухоли страны — пятой колонне. А потом уже другой корреспондент, как бы вторя вопросу своего коллеги, задал вопрос про Центробанк: в чём дело — эта организация откровенно нарушает законы, а управы на неё нет? На что Путин сказал, что Центробанк у нас вообще-то неподконтролен правительству и это очень хорошо. Ну а мы с вами прекрасно пониманием, что Центробанк как раз и есть один из ключевых органов пятой колонны, инструмент по обслуживанию финансовых интересов врагов России. То есть Путин откровенно вывел из под удара пятую колонну, компрадоров, проводников интересов иностранных государств. Он не захотел вообще говорить на эту тему. Почему же?

Давайте немножко отмотаем историю назад. Что произошло в 91-м году? Алкаш Ельцин и другие предатели заявили о том, что мы побеждённые, мы проиграли в Холодной войне, мы распустили великую державу и выбросили белый флаг. А в 1992 году Бжезинский заявил, когда мы пытались на равных что-то там говорить с ними: «Россия — это не партнер, Россия — это клиент. Россия проиграла нам и сегодня мы с ней должны вести как с клиентом». То есть мы проиграли, а что делают с побеждёнными? Давайте обратимся к опыту Второй мировой войны. Мы первые свергли фашизм в Восточной и Центральной Европе и пришли туда. Кого мы удаляли и кого мы ставили, помогали состояться, какие политические партии, какую финансовую систему, систему безопасности? Внедряли именно ту систему, которая будет подконтрольна нам. А Соединённые Штаты, Запад в целом, приняв нашу капитуляцию, разве должны были ставить наших, которые за социализм? И они поступили точно так же, как мы в 45-м. Поэтому вся система власти, модель экономики и модель финансов выстроена таким образом, чтобы служила — вечно причём служила — интересам заокеанских хозяев.

И по этому поводу Владимир Владимирович отшутился. А давайте вспомним, как его извлекли из небытия, подготовили, потом прогнали бегом по ряду ключевых должностей, чтобы он немножко осмотрелся. Но на каких условиях его двигали во власть и потом всё время поддерживают? Да на понятных условиях — на условиях капитулянтских. И поэтому

Центробанк, правительство и вся олигархическая модель нашей экономики — это всё подконтрольно и вписано в систему глобальной олигархии. В России правит филиал мирового олигархата, он далеко не самостоятелен, а встроен в мировой транснациональный капитал.

Мы ещё увидим (я полагаю — в марте), как наши олигархи не только начнут по примеру Сулеймана Керимова вывозить отсюда сотни миллионов долларов, но и побегут сдавать Россию, сдавать Путина перед западным олигархатом. И поэтому, когда мы говорим о пятой колонне — давайте начнём с Кремля, а не будем искать только где-то в Минфине, Минкультуры и так далее. Вся модель власти подчинена интересам тех, кто объявил себя победителем в Холодной войне.

По поводу укрепление нашей обороны и безопасности у меня тоже есть сомнения. Да, мы правильно пошли в Сирию. Но давайте задумаемся: почему разрушали четверть века армию и потом стали армию скороспешно укреплять, восстанавливать оборонно-промышленный комплекс? Это началось не потому, что нам с вами стал кто-то угрожать, а потому что обострились конкурентные отношения, особенно в нефтегазовой сфере, между олигархатом российским и олигархатом американским (и европейским в какой-то мере). И укрепление армии, наша внешнеполитическая решительность прежде всего нацелены на то, чтобы защитить интересы российского олигархата и поднять его в статусном отношении немножко повыше. А мы с вами, всё население страны, все ресурсы страны должны обеспечивать прибыли и повышение статуса олигархата.

Конечно, не может часть общей системы выступать против этой самой системы. Назови высшую реальную власть Российской Федерации олигархатом, назови её пятой колонной, назови её прозападными компрадорами, назови её клептоманами — всё это будет точно. И понятно, что политическая надстройка системы не может выступить против самой системы.

Об Украине

Был очень провокационный, хамский вопрос украинского журналиста Цимбалюка, в котором он фактически обвинил Путина в массовых убийствах. Вопрос звучал примерно так: «Вы наводнили Украину войсками, которые убивают украинский народ; доколе?» И тут Путин в манере, нетипичной для этой уклончивой, уступчивой, смягчённой пресс-конференции, ответил очень прямо. Что народ-то, на самом деле, один — русский. Различия между так называемыми украинцами и остальными русскими имеют характер региональный, но никак не сущностный. И что Донбасс — можно было понять только так — мы в обиду не дадим, что Донбасс имеет право на сопротивление государственному перевороту в Киеве.

Фразеологически на этом направлении наше высшее государственное, военное, политическое руководство стоит твёрдо. Однако и здесь есть немало странностей. Собственно говоря, Донецк и Луганск (и на очереди был Харьков) пошли на референдум, используя опыт Крыма. Крымский референдум был признан, и люди думали: мы проголосуем, и результаты будут признаны. Но этого не произошло. Там мы признаём — здесь не признаём. Вопрос — почему? Могут приводить много юридической казуистики, но референдум был вызван именно государственным переворотом, о чём Путин не устаёт утверждать. Это действительно так. Да, по украинской конституции плебисцит надо согласовать с властями, но если нет законной власти, то с кем согласовывать? Это право народа. И вот здесь мы сразу «даём отступные». Да, у Путина есть патриотизм, он иногда проявляется. Но как во внутрироссийских экономических вопросах президент не предпринимает решительных действий, потому что не он начальник в этой сфере (в том числе, над некоторыми министрами или вице-премьером типа Дворковича), а начальником является крупный российский капитал — так и в украинских процессах начальство выступает в интересах крупного капитала. И украинского, и нашего.

Нельзя сказать, что наша власть идёт на то, чтобы защитить украинский братский народ. А вот где интересы Ахметова, Коломойского и прочих украинских олигархов совпадают с интересами наших олигархов — там мы как бы выступаем решительно. А в целом я не понимаю, почему мы не признаём результаты референдума, в то же время заявляя, что осуществлён государственный переворот. И одновременно признаём национал-фашистскую власть. Это уже не говорит о том, что наша власть имеет чёткую позицию по Украине. Опять двойственность, опять диссонанс.

Посмотрите: если там сложилась такая ситуация, то поручи координировать и регулировать ситуацию в этом сложном регионе какому-то мудрому, мощному человеку, который обладает жизненным опытом. Кого туда направили? Суркова. Что он знает? Он выражает интересы определённой группы компаний. Поэтому, когда Сурков был назначен без политического опыта в урегулировании сложных конфликтных ситуаций, то сразу стало ясно, что он будет продвигать интересы «Альфа-групп» и других олигархических компаний. И где-то тайно договариваться, вывозить всякое оборудование и так далее. Это тоже говорит о двойственности и диссонансе.

А что касается надежды…

... вы знаете, у меня есть великая надежда. Ведь эта пресс-конференция кардинально отличается от всех предыдущих остротой вопросов, которые ставят проблему выживания российского народа, требуют коренных изменений. Ведь многие вопросы звучат уже как требование, как крик, что нужно остановить этот бардак, этот беспредел. Ещё Ленин говорил, как свершается процесс: от простого созерцания к абстрактному мышлению, от него — к практике. Мы уже стадию абстрактного мышления (то есть понимания, что происходит) завершаем. А дальше уже мы увидели практику — народ начинает выражать своё «я». То Путина накачивали лестью как шарик, всё только «спасибо вам, да вот повезло нам с вами, да вот вы хороший» и так далее. И вопросы на пресс-конференциях были мелкими. Сегодня ставят коренные вопросы нашей реальности. И Путин не может не реагировать. Он победит на выборах, у меня сомнений нет. Но далее или народ уже в ближайшие два года ему откажет в доверии и он вынужден будет сойти с поезда власти — или же он опирается на народ, на наиболее активную и мудрую часть населения, и начинает менять ситуацию в России.

Произойдёт революция. Она неизбежна в нынешней ситуации, потому что есть закономерности поведения человеческого сообщества. Но она может пойти сверху, и Путин возглавит этот процесс. Для этого ему нужно победить себя, ему нужно понять, что он отслужил тем, кто нанял президентом его — несмышлёныша. Понять, что он уже отработал им и теперь будет работать на страну, на народ, на свой авторитет в истории. Если этого не произойдёт, Путин сойдёт с дистанции, и придут другие силы. И я уже вижу эти силы.

Пусть Зюганов всё повторяет мантры о том, что лимит на революции закончился в России. Пусть говорят, что не может быть революции, потому что нет революционного класса. Нет!

Формируется и класс, формируется и сила — именно та, которая смотрит в будущее. Если Путин не обопрётся на эту народную силу, то он сойдёт на нет.

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