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«Американский век» умер. Его убил Путин

13 марта 2018 г.

   Автор: Иван Данилов

Фирменный стиль американской журналистики — безудержный, улыбающийся во все 32 зуба, надменный оптимизм, смешанный с железобетонной уверенностью в собственной исключительности. Особенно ярко это стало проявляться в период «конца истории», когда, начитавшись Фукуямы, журналистская братия и экспертное сообщество вслед за сенаторами и конгрессменами фанатично уверовала в то, что никакой истории больше не будет, а будет один длинный «американский век», то есть бесконечный период тотального идеологического, культурного, военного и экономического доминирования США.

© REUTERS / Yuri Gripas

И вот в 2018 году флагманское СМИ американского бизнеса, агентство деловой информации Блумберг вынуждено констатировать, что «американский век завершен», причем этот период тотального вашингтонского доминирования над миром не просто закончился.

Оказывается, «американский век» умер, и это была насильственная смерть. По версии Блумберга, место «преступления» уже четко определено — это Сирия, а его автор — президент Российской Федерации, той самой страны, которая по историческим меркам совсем недавно проиграла холодную войну.

Даже столь негативные констатации обычно не ломают общий дух всепобеждающего американского оптимизма. В конце концов, вся избирательная кампания Дональда Трампа была построена на месседже «Сделаем Америку снова великой», что подразумевало наличие не только серьезных проблем, но и соответствующих решений. Одним из них должна была стать «великая торговая война», которую Трамп готов развязать со дня на день, чтобы оживить производственный сектор страны. Однако протекционизм и оптимизм президента наталкивается на суровую реальность постиндустриальной Америки. Например, как с грустью констатирует тот же Блумберг, "тарифы Трампа — это подарок для России и ОПЕК, а не для американского сланца".

После такого заголовка может возникнуть подозрение, что вроде бы серьезное издание занимается продвижением очередной конспирологической теории, что президент США — это агент Путина. На практике все прозаичнее и грустнее. Оказывается, американская металлургия деградировала до такого состояния, в котором она уже не может производить трубы сверхвысокого качества, необходимые для добычи сланцевой нефти. И это приводит к парадоксальной ситуации: если заградительные тарифы на иностранные трубы будут введены, то единственным экономическим эффектом станет понижение конкурентоспособности американских сланцевых компаний, а если — по любым причинам — импорт высококачественных труб в США вообще прекратится, то в полный рост встанет вопрос о том, что новые сланцевые месторождения невозможно адекватно обслуживать.

© AP Photo / David Zalubowski Добыча сланцевой нефти в Колорадо, США

По мере того как амбициозные протекционистские планы Трампа будут расширяться, а для этого есть все предпосылки, его администрация будет снова и снова сталкиваться с системными проблемами и серьезными структурными ограничениями, многие из которых просто невозможно решить с помощью «заливки деньгами», поскольку они лежат в управленческой, коррупционной или даже культурной плоскости.

Сирия считается местом смерти «американского века» именно потому, что в контексте сирийского конфликта миру в целом стало понятно, что США уже не могут решать цивилизационные задачи высшей категории сложности, которые требуют высокого уровня концентрации и качества военных, дипломатических и управленческих ресурсов. А Россия — может.

На этом фоне довольно забавно наблюдать за тем, как российская «секта любителей Запада» пытается убедить российскую аудиторию в бесперспективности конкуренции с США, апеллируя к разнице между военными бюджетами наших стран.

Показательно, что сторонние наблюдатели делают из разницы бюджетов совсем другой вывод, который сводится к тому, что Россия (и в определенной мере Китай) тратят свои средства эффективно, а американцы и их союзники по НАТО — нет. Если очень сильно утрировать, то можно предложить следующее сравнение: американский военный бюджет — это деньги, потраченные на производство поезда, а российский военный бюджет — это деньги, потраченные на разработку и создание «партизанского» взрывного устройства, которое пускает этот поезд под откос. Однако если бы дело было только в разной эффективности военного бюджетирования, то было бы преждевременно говорить о том, что «американский век умер». Проблема гораздо глубже и связана не только и не столько с экономикой, сколько с определенными культурологическими особенностями современных США. Например, уже при Трампе во имя соблюдения политкорректности и принципа равенства полов американская морская пехота (то есть та часть армии, от которой ожидается повышенная боеспособность) отказалась от использования жестких тестов на физическую выносливость для отбора в свои подразделения.

В России или Китае невозможно себе представить логику в стиле «давайте откажемся от физических тестов ради того, чтобы больше женщин получали краповые береты и политические активисты перестали нас критиковать в СМИ». В более консервативных культурах считается, что уважение к женщинам проявляется максимальной серьезностью в процессе отбора и подготовки тех мужчин, которые будут их защищать. В США политкорректность и дурно понятое равенство уже проникает даже в сферы жизни, где раньше единственно важным была только эффективность. Цивилизация, в которой сфера безопасности и применения силы оказывается в зоне ответственности профессиональных «распильщиков» с одной стороны и идеологически заряженных активистов с другой, вряд ли способна претендовать на сохранение мировой гегемонии и уж тем более на тотальное доминирование на протяжении целого века.

© AP Photo / Pool/ Jason Reed Морпехи США во время построения

В ответ на мнение американских журналистов, что он «хорошо играет слабыми картами», Владимир Путин резонно заметил:

«Если мы сильно играем слабыми картами, то, значит, они вообще не умеют играть. Значит, не такие уж они и сильные. Значит, чего-то не хватает».

Столкновение в Сирии в этом смысле ключевой момент. Если сравнивать ситуацию со столь любимой американцами игрой в покер, то Путин заставил сначала Обаму, а потом Трампа вскрыть свои карты и тут выяснилось, что доминирование США — это блеф. Если Вашингтон потерял возможность единолично определять судьбы стран в ключевых регионах планеты, значит, король оказался голым. Не зря автор статьи про смерть «американского века» ожидает, что вскоре Китай последует примеру России и продемонстрирует Штатам свою силу в конфликте за спорные острова в Южно-Китайском море.

Расстроенные таким развитием событий американские эксперты и политики мечтают о глобальной войне. В их представлении только это позволит «перевернуть стол» и уйти от поражения. Однако вот

после того, как Путин продемонстрировал несколько «изделий» российской оборонной промышленности, способных обнулить любые надежды другой стороны на выживание в рамках глобальной войны, вариант с «переворачиванием стола» уже не может казаться кому-то привлекательным. Партию придется доиграть до конца, и ее результат вряд ли понравится Вашингтону.

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