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Дракон против орла: ФАН разбирает американский фейк про военные потенциалы Китая и США

21 апреля 2017 г.

      Автор: Андрей Союстов

Кто кого сборет — слон или кит? Эта, казалось бы, заведомо лишенная смысла игра разума приобретает вполне конкретное наполнение, если ее дополнить всего лишь парой прилагательных. Например — словами «китайский» и «американский».

На выходе получим уже куда более актуальный вопрос: у кого военный потенциал сильнее — у китайского дракона или американского орла?

Пропаганда бывает разной

Не секрет, что мировой гегемон в лице США считает своим стратегическим противником не только Россию, но и КНР. Давно миновали времена «опиумных войн», когда западные державы походя вытирали о Китай ноги.

Современная Китайская Народная Республика — это не только постоянный член Совета безопасности ООН, но и первая экономика мира по ВВП, одна из ведущих космических держав мира, обладатель ядерного оружия и крупнейшей в мире армией по численности военнослужащих.

Таким образом, не считаться с Красным Драконом невозможно. Хочешь не хочешь, а реагировать на сам факт его существования как-то надо.

Если Россия в силу объективных обстоятельств после весны 2014 года объявила «разворот на Восток» и всячески демонстрирует, что видит в Китае союзника, то у Соединенных Штатов с этим не все так однозначно. При Бараке Обаме китайско-американские отношения особой сердечностью не отличались. Вот и Дональд Трамп до начала своего президентства публично именовал Китай «страной-спекулянтом» и утверждал, что Пекин «изнасиловал экономику США».

После пришествия в Белый дом новый американский президент стал, с одной стороны, добиваться увеличения американского экспорта в Китай, а с другой — жестко возражать против территориальных претензий КНР на острова в Южно-Китайском море и способствовать развертыванию в Южной Корее американской системы ПРО THAAD, небезосновательно рассматриваемой в Пекине как угроза своей нацбезопасности.

Наконец, Трамп сумел публично унизить главу КНР Си Цзиньпина во время его визита в Штаты, лично поставив того перед фактом удара американских «Томагавков» по сирийской авиабазе Шайрат.

Одновременно американские медиа стали постепенно разворачивать кампанию по «накачке» своих граждан оптимистическими прогнозами относительно возможных итогов противостояния США и КНР. В этих материалах бессмертный сталинский тезис «Победа будет за нами!» если открыто и не озвучивается, то прямо подразумевается.

Пропаганда бывает разной. Сложной, простой, скрытой, явной. Но всегда она является пристрастной, ибо суть пропаганды — выгородить одну сторону в ущерб репутации стороны другой. Это, как говорится, азбука. Таким образом, удивляться факту заведомого преуменьшения американскими СМИ китайских возможностей и преувеличения возможностей своих не стоит.

Показательно, что разворачивающаяся информвойна рассчитана, условно говоря, на любого американского «потребителя». Интеллектуалу «скармливаются» выводы экспертов и аналитиков, сдобренные графиками и таблицами. Для тех же, кто попроще, кто привык черпать информацию в перерыве между бургером и банкой «Доктора Пеппера», есть развлекательные ролики в интернете.

Они крайне топорно сработаны, но создатели знают — подавляющее большинство тех, кто из американской аудитории их посмотрит, смысл уловит. Но перепроверять содержимое ролика даже по имеющимся в той же Сети справочным материалам не будет. Во-первых, некогда. Во-вторых, лень. В-третьих, Америка всех сильней, разве это не всем известно?..

Дело в нюансах

В качестве примера разберем содержание пропагандистского видеоролика, размещенного в американского сегменте Сети.

Перевод ролика здесь:

Мысль о давней закулисной конфронтации двух стран — правда. Трудно спорить с очевидным.

Мысль о том, что по финансовым вложениям в «оборонку» США значительно опережают Китай — тоже правда. «Ежегодный оборонный бюджет Китая 147 млрд долларов, а у США — 664 млрд долларов».

Но вот тут уже начинаются забавные нюансы. Про 2017 год говорить не будем, он еще не закончился. Вспомним год предыдущий. В 2016-м китайские военные расходы на военный бюджет составили 215 млрд долларов, а вот американские — 585 млрд. Ой, не совпало с роликом. Какая неожиданность…

Если мы вспомним о том, что в Китае себестоимость производства гораздо ниже, чем в Штатах, то блистательность посыла «Американцы тратят на свою армию больше, чем китайцы, значит американская армия сильнее» заметно потускнеет.

Озвученная в ролике мысль о том, что численность населения в Китае и численность китайских Вооруженных сил превосходят таковые у Штатов, плюс приведенные цифры, в целом соответствуют действительности. Но следует указать на один нюанс.

Руководство КНР осознало, что гигантская армия является слишком громоздкой и, как следствие, слабоуправляемой. В результате Китай начал программу сокращения своих ВС до численности в 2 млн человек, одновременно наращивая количество учений.

Следующий посыл: война на суше между Китаем и США маловероятна. Это правда. Действительно, ВС Китая не располагают возможностями для вторжения на американскую территорию (чего, кстати, не скажешь о территории ряда стран-союзниц США).

С другой стороны, Америка теоретически имеет возможность перебросить на китайскую территорию не только части своего корпуса морской пехоты, но и довольно значительные общевойсковые подразделения.

Но вот на практике попытка проведения подобной операции, скорее всего, станет для американских сил вторжения формой коллективного самоубийства. Причем даже в случае отказа Пекина от использования по каким-то причинам своего ядерного оружия.

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Соотношение военного потенциала КНР и США

Соотношение военного потенциала КНР и США

У вас циферки не сходятся

Теперь, когда мы это выяснили, становится совершенно непонятно, зачем авторам ролика понадобилось перечислять количество боевой техники, находящейся на вооружении китайской и американской армий. Кит все равно не доплывет до слона!

Но раз уж авторам захотелось пожонглировать танками и прочим дульно-вздульным инвентарем, давайте и мы мимо этого не пройдем.

Итак, авторы ролика утверждают, что Китай имеет 9150 танков, 1710 САУ, 6246 буксируемых орудий и 4788 БТР/БМП — против 8484, 1934, 1499, 41062 таковых у США. Правда ли это? Ну, за исключением того, что китайцы массово списывают устаревшую технику, оставляя лишь 7600 танков, прочие цифры плюс-минус правдивы.

Что авторы ролика забыли? 1770 китайских и 400 американских РСЗО, а также то, что четверть американских БТР и БМП — это на деле легкобронированные Humvee, более известные у нас как «Хаммеры».

Будем честными. Китайские танки по своим ТТХ в большинстве своем считаются значительно уступающими постоянно модернизируемому американскому «Абрамсу». Но какое это имеет значение, если «Абрамс» не может оказаться на китайской земле, а Type 99 — на американской?

Еще один любопытный нюанс. Китайские танковые заводы новые единицы техники выпускают, а вот американские — нет. Детройтский танковый арсенал корпорации «Крайслер», производивший «Абрамсы», закрыт на консервацию ввиду отсутствия заказов. Лаймский танковый завод в городе Лайма, штат Огайо, принадлежащий корпорации «Дженерал Дайнемикс», лишь осуществляет глубокую модернизацию уже выпущенных машин, но новые танки не выпускает…

Утверждение авторов ролика, что по количеству боевых самолетов США кроют Китай как бык овцу, правдиво. Но как только мы добираемся до приводимых в ролике цифр, начинаются забавные подробности.

Китай располагает 2942 летными единицами против 13444 американских, сообщает нам ролик. Неужели? Вообще-то, у Китая в ВВС — более 4000 боевых самолетов, и еще более 400 приписаны к ВМФ.

Да, большая часть китайского авиапарка новизной не отличается. Да, китайцам не хватает имеющихся самолетов ДРЛО. Но при этом КНР примерно с середины прошлого десятилетия активно разрабатывает собственные истребители пятого поколения J-31 и J-20.

Теперь посмотрим на янки. Штаты имеют порядка 4000 боевых самолетов в ВВС, 1000 с небольшим — в составе ВМФ, столько же — в корпусе морской пехоты и еще около 600 боевых самолетов в Нацгвардии. 4000 + 1000 + 1000 + 600 = 6400, это по самым грубым прикидкам. Но никак не 13444!

К тому же, всем понятно, что использовать все свои боевые самолеты против Китая Штаты физически не смогут. А ведь у Китая есть еще и ЗРК в товарных количествах, о которых авторы ролика предпочли «патриотично» забыть…

Понять и простить

Мысль о том, что основной зоной боевых действий в случае китайско-американского конфликта станут морские просторы, не верна. Стороны в обязательном порядке задействуют свою авиацию, а там, глядишь, и в космос что-то полетит… Или — из космоса…

Но ладно, посмотрим на ВМФ двух стран. Данные ролика по Китаю: 1 авианосец, 68 субмарин, 32 эсминца, 48 фрегатов, 26 корветов, 4 тральщика, 138 патрульных кораблей. Данные по США: 19 авианосцев, 75 субмарин, 62 эсминца, 6 фрегатов, 0 корветов, 11 тральщиков, 13 патрульных кораблей. Разница впечатляет, но как там на самом деле?

Реальность нам рисует несколько иную картину. Китай: 1 авианосец, 68 субмарин, 36 эсминцев, 68 фрегатов, 32 корвета, 48 тральщиков, 234 патрульных катера. Плюс такая «мелочь», как сотня ракетных катеров и точно не известное, но достаточно приличное количество береговых комплексов с противокорабельными ракетами.

США: 11 авианосцев, 81 субмарина, 22 крейсера, 62 эсминца, 1 фрегат (парусный USS Constitution 1797 года постройки), целый ноль корветов. Плюс еще куча всего, включая 9 универсальных десантных кораблей, 7 десантно-вертолетных кораблей-доков и т.д. Увеличить чуть ли не вдвое в ролике авианосный флот США — это такая мелочь… Как говорится, понять и простить.

Цитата из ролика «Очень маловероятно, что какая-то из этих стран [США или КНР] применит ядерное оружие» с обоснованием «потому что вероятность взаимного уничтожения противников в этом случае будет слишком велика» потрясает своей элегантностью и не избитостью. Прямо библейский сюжет в стилистике «уверуйте и да воздастся вам».

Вообще-то, в военной доктрине КНР отсутствует установка на упреждающий удар своим ядерным оружием. Но это вовсе не означает, что китайцы угробили кучу сил и средств на создание своего ЯО исключительно ради того, чтобы в кризисный момент его не применить… Так что на месте американцев мы бы на чудо не надеялись.

Дальше — больше. У Китая, якобы, имеется 260 ядерных боеголовок, а у Штатов — целых 5100. Ну надо же!.. Про себя американцы не солгали, а вот про Китай… Вообще-то, по разным оценкам, количество китайских ядерных зарядов составляет 650 штук минимум. Согласно же оценкам некоторых российских обозревателей, ядерный арсенал Китая составляет не менее 10000 боезарядов, учитывая, что Китай производит свои боеголовки уже более полувека.

В ролике утверждается, что обе стороны располагают разными видами носителей ядерных боеголовок, но вот Штаты еще разворачивают свою систему ПРО и уж вот она-то ух!.. На этом месте хочется вспомнить не столь уж и давний наш диалог с полковником в запасе Виктором Мураховским, главным редактором журнала «Арсенал Отечества», который сообщил следующее:

«Уверенность стран Запада в своем подавляющем техническом превосходстве формирует у значительной части местного населения довольно легкомысленное отношение к проблематике применения ОМП. Информационная среда наших иностранных «партнеров» инфицирована настоящим вирусом техноетишизма. Мол, вот сейчас мы спутники предупреждения понавешаем, развернем свои системы ПРО да и отсидимся за морями-океанами. Западный обыватель специалистом не является. Он начинает во все это верить и готов дальше отстегивать на вышеописанные технические игрушки деньги из своего кармана.

На практике, я уверен на 101%, панацея от ответного массированного ядерного удара до сих пор не найдена. Система ПРО не будет столь эффективна, как это подается в иностранных СМИ. Будут неизбежные ошибки, связанные с человеческим фактором. Техника неизбежно покажет совсем другие результаты, нежели чем те, которые от нее ожидали. Словом, в случае с ПРО справедлива аксиома, используемая в отношении ПВО: она не защищает, а лишь прикрывает. И ничего не гарантирует». 

Думаем, после этой цитаты последующий подсчет авторами ролика количества потребляемых/добываемых странами углеводородов, не говоря уж об учете стран-союзников, просто превращается в трагикомический анекдот. При этом озвученная в ролике мысль об отсутствии у китайцев современного опыта реальных боевых действий абсолютно правильна, как не лишено смысла пусть и невнятное, но озвученное упоминание о кибердостижениях Китая.

Вот такой сумбурный этюд с победоносными интонациями, но сомнительным подтекстом получился у авторов ролика. Конечно, можно объявить, что в главном-то они правы. Вон сколько правдивой информации озвучено!

Но дьявол-то кроется, как известно, в мелочах. Тут чуть-чуть авианосцев дорисуешь, там об РСЗО забудешь, здесь на прогнозы о появлении ядерных «грибов» глаза закроешь… А главное — цифр, цифр побольше и красивых картинок. Глядишь, налогоплательщики и избиратели с куда большим оптимизмом начнут воспринимать идею своих элит — а не пригрозить ли Китаю американской дубинкой? А то ишь!..

В отличие от авторов ролика, у нас есть все основания полагать, что если гипотетический военный конфликт китайского дракона и американского орла однажды перейдет в практическую плоскость, то победителями останутся какие-нибудь одноклеточные. Как наиболее устойчивые к радиации. Увы, но именно о такой перспективе столкновения Китая и США авторы ролика предпочли умолчать. Право, очень жаль.

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      I accept your offer and am ready to post your publications on my site without translation (naturally with reference to you), since most of my readers are English-speaking. But ... I have a number of conditions for this, which you need to take into account.

      First, read carefully everything about the site - rules and stuff. This is very important for our mutual understanding and will help to avoid misunderstandings afterwards.

      Secondly, the main focus of the site is the analysis of events taking place in the world, mainly in Russia, the loyal subject of which I am. I consider my main task to help the reader to assess what is happening in the world and to teach «to separate flies from cutlets». 🙂

      Thirdly, I'm not interested in information at all who killed whom, who married whom, and other similar nonsense. This rubbish on the Internet is a great many and who is interested, let read there. Also I am absolutely against any advertising in the text of articles.

      All the rest of the content is also important, but it plays a secondary role. You can offer any material corresponding to the menu of my site, including already printed on your site, and I will post it on my website on your behalf.

      What options for interaction can be? If your article meets the above requirements, then:

      — you post it in the comments on the page «Feedback from Admin», after moderation I publish it on your behalf with a link to you.

      — you send it to my contact Email leonids.49@yandex.ru and after my moderation I publish it on your behalf with a link to you.

      So far, somehow. If we work together, I will add you to the list of authorized authors of publications on the site, but I reserve the right to moderation in any case.

      As you see the conditions are simple and if they suit you, let's start working.

      With respect. Admin

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