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Кто такой Путин?!

25 июля 2018 г.

   Автор: Михаил Хазин

Справка

Михаил Леонидович Хазин- российский экономист, статистик, публицист, журналист, теле- и радиоведущий, бывший чиновник администрации президента.

В последнее время ко мне высказывалось много претензий в части моей позиции о неизбежности «левого» поворота в политике Путина. Отвечать на такие претензии достаточно сложно, поскольку любые рассуждения о смене политики неминуемо апеллируют к той индивидуальной картине мира, которая есть в голове у конкретного человека. И картина эта в головах у нашего человека в последнее время сильно адаптировалась, причем не в пользу Путина.

Кто такой Путин?!

В этом виноват и новый состав правительства (и никакие мои объяснения тут ничего не объяснят, поскольку структура и внутренние отношения внутри правительства — это для профессионалов, а для людей принципиальное важна только фигура его руководителя), и новые инициативы правительства (одна пенсионная реформа чего стоит, а ведь есть еще и НДС, и много еще чего), да и активность «партнеров» свою роль играет (в последнее время пропагандистские новшества либеральной общественности стали чрезвычайно быстро доходить до значительной массы пенсионеров).

Собственно, это хорошо было видно по моему последнему опросу на радиостанции «Говорит Москва», где на вопрос о результатах встречи Путина и Трампа в Хельсинки я дал три варианта ответа: «Успешно для нас», «Неуспешно для нас» и «Кто такой Путин?».

Понятно, что в таких опросах речь идет не о том, чтобы слушатели всерьез рефлексировали весь объем информации о встрече, соотносили его со своим личным опытом и так далее. Речь идет об эмоциональной оценке, вписанной общий контекст их ощущений от жизни. И опрос в полной мере показал картину восприятия нынешнего, причем не самого бедного, по большей части московского человека:

Только 17% оценили саммит как успешный для России. 
А как неуспешный — 37%. 
Но самое яркое — 46% спросили: «А кто такой Путин?»

Если по мне, то такая реакция вызвана обидой. Причем такой, детской, так обижаются дети и подростки, когда по их мнению справедливость в их отношении серьезно нарушена, но они еще готовы все простить, если об этом будет сказано вслух и принесена соответствующая компенсация. А вот если это сделано не будет, то обида станет серьезной, более того, она может адаптироваться в измененье базового отношения. В конце концов, обижаются только на тех, кого любят, все остальные просто либо становятся безразличными, либо — врагами.

Я не думаю, что Власть в России не понимает, что становится врагом своему населению нельзя. Собственно, в нашей истории такое происходило несколько раз и каждый из них очень дорого стоил и стране, и, главное, элите. И именно по этой причине (я же не зря включил в свой опрос такой странный вариант ответа) я понимал, что Власть неминуемо должна будет:

а) извиниться,
б) компенсировать потери,
в) предложить серьезную альтернативу.

Отметим, что когда я пишу слово «Власть» я не зря делаю это с большой буквы. Имеется в виду сакральная власть, намертво связанная с Россией, а не свора опарышей, которая дорвалась до делёжки собственности в нашей стране и освоила большое количество высоких должностных мест, причем исключительно под серьезным патронажем ряда зарубежных «партнеров». Путин сегодня явно претендует на то, что он эту Власть представляет и олицетворяет (иначе бы он не стал ждать со своей оценкой планов пенсионной реформы до первого голосования в Госдуме) и поэтому не может не знать и не чувствовать сложившейся ситуации.

Тем, кто начнет вопить, что Путин — «главный вор» и «либераст» отмечу, что ему ничего не мешало либо сразу пенсионную реформу поддержать, либо вообще сказать, что это не его дело, бюджет и выплаты из него. Это дело правительство, пусть оно и разбирается. А форма и время высказывания говорит как раз о том, что все не так просто.

Я не буду повторять свои рассуждения о мощи «крыши» наших либерастов, просто еще раз скажу, что не так-то просто их убрать. И сделать это всерьез можно только при условии смены модели… Не просто экономической (которая у нас насквозь либеральная, причем создана она еще до появления Путина во власти), а всей социально-политической модели современного Российского государства. И судя по всему, что Трамп, возвратившись с саммита в Хельсинки, начал разбираться со своей экономической моделью (до чистки своего государственного аппарата от откровенных либералов в США еще далеко), на сегодня руки у Путина наконец-то развязаны.

Вот и посмотрим, что он будет делать.

Но вариантов у него, собственно, всего два:

Первый — это построение капитализма с сильным социал-демократическим оттенком, в стиле Франции или Германии 50х-60х годов прошлого века. Но и даже в США максимальная ставка подоходного налога в начале 60-х годов превышала 90%.

Второй вариант — построение социализма, но не хрущевского варианта, а сталинского, с сильным малым и средним бизнесом (в форме артелей).

И то, и другое — в любом случае очень сильный сдвиг влево, по сравнению с нынешней ситуацией. Более того, не исключено, что первый из этих вариантов будет более приятен населению, поскольку любая форма «Красного» проекта включает в себя решение неких сверхзадач, которые отнимают массу ресурсов. Впрочем, посмотрим.

А вот сохранение либерального финансового капитализма просто невозможно. И по чисто сакральным причинам (эту тему я уже в начале текста раскрывал), и по экономическим. Поскольку сохранение нынешней модели экономики ведет к продолжению серьезного спада, а социальная система государства уже не справляется с ситуацией. Так что экономическая модель так или иначе изменится.

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