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Главная задача Минфина и ЦБ – не допустить укрепления рубля?

Картинки по запросу демотиватор о рубле

Для любителей аналитики и долгосрочных экономических прогнозов нынешнее состояние российского рубля – не какая-то шоковая ситуация, а дело вполне житейское.

Либералы во власти удушают экономику России по указке «хозяев денег»

1 февраля 2017 г.

      Автор: Виктор Семенов

Наша платежная единица загнана в такое плачевное состояние, что любые надежды на ее рост и положительные тенденции тут же обрубаются на корню. И делается это не недоброжелателями с Запада, а нашим «родным» финансово-экономическим блоком во власти. Впрочем, если разобраться, между первыми и вторыми можно ставить знак равенства.

Накануне в Минфине заявили, что считают нынешний курс рубля завышенным, и предложили девальвировать его разом на 10%. А ранее, 25 января, было объявлено о планах Центрального банка начать операции «по покупке или продаже (естественно – покупке! – прим. ред.) иностранной валюты на внутреннем рынке» в феврале. Объяснено это было просто феерической формулировкой: якобы, все делается в целях «повышения стабильности и предсказуемости внутренних экономических условий и снижения влияния изменчивой конъюнктуры рынка энергоносителей на российскую экономику и государственные финансы».

О необходимости сильного рубля в этом объяснении, разумеется, не сказано ничего. Просто наши чиновники планировали бюджет на 2017 год из расчета стоимости нефти 40 долл. за бочку, а за доллар, по их мнению, должны были давать около 67 рублей. Но экономические реалии обманули их ожидания, что оказалось проблемой как для либералов во власти, так и для крупнейших российских экспортеров нефти и газа.

Нищий дефицитный бюджет с урезанной социалкой уже сверстан, миллионные зарплаты и премии топ-менеджеров госкорпораций расписаны, а российский рубль, невзирая на санкции, поди ж ты, продолжает укрепляться! И вот тут-то мы увидели, что планы и прогнозы Минфина и Минэкономразвития при необходимости могут превращаться в строгие директивы для искусственного выполнения бюджета, в валютные коридоры, из которых распоясавшемуся рублю просто не позволят выбраться. Очень может быть, что и писались они изначально именно с этой целью.

Затем ведомство Силуанова подтвердило наши худшие опасения – на светлое будущее рубля и «черного золота» оно в принципе и не рассчитывало, а потому отказывается тратить дополнительные доходы от продажи нефти на покрытие дефицита бюджета. Все доллары, купленные ЦБ за рубли на бирже, будут пополнять Резервный фонд и Фонд национального благосостояния. Ну а рубль при этом, естественно, прекратит усиление и подскочит, как минимум, до отметки 65-67 за доллар.

Что толкает экономистов во власти на решительные «антирублевые» действия? На этот вопрос еще год назад доходчиво ответил доцент факультета финансов и банковского дела РАНХиГС Сергей Хестанов.

«От ослабления рубля выигрывает федеральный бюджет, потому что меньшее число нефтедолларов меняется на большее число рублей. Наш бюджет очень ассиметричен. У нас почти половина его наполнения – валютная выручка. В основном это нефть и газ, хотя вносят свою лепту металл, продукты нефтехимии, лес-кругляк и другие виды сырья. А почти все расходы бюджета рублевые. Внешний валютный долг ничтожно маленький по сравнению с 98-м годом.

Как следствие, ослабление рубля помогает экспортерам, которые наполовину наполняют бюджет. Имея таких выгодоприобретателей, не надо быть экспертом, чтобы догадаться, что в обозримом будущем, от двух до пяти лет, все трудности бюджета будут решать за счет девальвации рубля, то есть – рубль будут ослаблять. Да, девальвация – это горькое лекарство. Мы прекрасно знаем, что в след за ростом курса доллара растут цены в магазинах.

Причина тоже очень проста и понятна – официально треть, а неофициально где-то 40-44 процента в больших городах потребительской корзины — это импорт. Причем во многих товарах, которые мы на бытовом уровне считаем чисто российскими, присутствует определенная доля валютной стоимости», – отмечает Хестанов.

Таким образом, нынешняя структура российской государственной экономики является в значительной части долларовой, а значит, никак не может считаться суверенной. По одну сторону у нас находятся интересы олигархов-долларовых миллионеров и госкорпораций-экспортеров сырья, а по другую – интересы производителей и потребителей внутри страны, не хранящих свои доходы на западных счетах и в офшорах, то есть – подавляющего большинства российского населения.

Но самое печальное – когда вопреки звериному оскалу Запада, в условиях санкций и спасительного для России импортозамещения, рубль начал возрождаться из пепла, по нему тут же нанесли удар те, кто по долгу службы должны отвечать за его стабильность. И это лишний раз подтвердило мнение экспертов, утверждающих, что наша страна представляет собой сырьевую финансово-экономическую колонию, а Минфин, Минэкономразвития и ЦБ – органы колониальной администрации, напрямую подчиняющиеся ФРС и МВФ.

Сейчас трудно в это поверить, но за всю новейшую историю Российской Федерации вплоть до августа 2014 года бивалютный курс никогда не превышал отметки 36 рублей за доллар. А нефть до весны 2005 года не пробивала отметку 50 долл. за баррель. В декабре 2008 стоимость марки Brent упала до 43 долларов после затяжного взлета – на курс рубля это повлияло, но совсем не критично…

А вот в конце 2014 года произошла, как рассказывал «Колоколу России» экономист Валентин Катасонов, спланированная диверсия «хозяев денег» против нашей страны, блестяще осуществленная главой ЦБ Эльвирой Набиуллиной. Тогда рубль был отпущен Центробанком в свободно-спекулятивное плавание и, несмотря на положительное сальдо платежного баланса и достаточные золотовалютные резервы страны, к концу декабря превысил отметку 60 ед. за доллар.

И ныне происходит продолжение этой антинациональной экономической политики, причем в зависимости от конъюнктуры момента Минфин и ЦБ делают взаимоисключающие заявления. Еще недавно говорилось о том, что в плавающий курс рубля никто вмешиваться не будет, а теперь уже говорят о «плановых валютных интервенциях» и о том, что ЦБ будет делать это «как обычный игрок рынка». Еще недавно говорилось, что дорогая нефть=дорогой рубль, а теперь при стоимости барреля выше среднегодовых планов Минфина (55 долл. против 40) заявляют, что рубль-де у нас переоценен и надо срочно его ронять.

Как еще можно назвать правительство, которому выгодно наполнение бюджета обесценившимися по отношению к доллару распечатанными бумажками, добытыми в результате обмена тех же нефтедолларов, если не колониальным? За последние 25 лет гайдаровские ученики успешно создали и всячески поддерживают ситуацию, при которой сильный доллар ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО ВАЖНЕЕ И ВЫГОДНЕЕ для госбюджета, чем сильный рубль. Так пусть уже скажут прямо: мы – долларовая страна, 51 штат Америки, обращение рублей здесь – пустая формальность. Тем более, что на любой рублевой купюре можно прочитать лишь безликое «билет Банка России», тогда как на советских дензнаках, например, красовалась надпись «банковские билеты обеспечиваются золотом, драгоценными металлами и прочими активами Государственного Банка».

Председатель Русского экономического общества им. Шарапова Валентин Катасонов не поменял свой взгляд на творящееся в экономике страны, о чем рассказал в интервью «Колоколу России».

«Решение о девальвации рубля на 10% будут принимать не чиновники Минфина, а «хозяева денег» и его прямые исполнители – биржевые спекулянты. Если понадобится, они обвалят рубль и на 10, и на 30, и на 40%. Роль нашего правительства в этих событиях минимальна, оно просто констатирует факт.

Наверно, этим заявлением они также хотели сказать, что не будут больше жечь резервы и отпустят рубль в свободное плавание, хотя он и так уже плавает по полной. Естественно, команда не трогать резервы и исполнять текущий «копеечный» бюджет ускорит обесценивание рубля. Надо заметить, что плавное падение не очень выгодно спекулянтам, поэтому вполне вероятен резкий обвал.

Что же касается укрепления курса рубля в последние месяцы, оно также не было случайным, и это, опять же, не была инициатива Минфина. Сейчас иностранный капитал будет все активнее заходить в Россию под соусом «улучшения инвестиционного климата» и «снижения градуса противостояния с Западом». Но надо понимать, что все это не созидательные, а краткосрочные, спекулятивные средства.

Так что не исключены и периоды повышения курса рубля. Безусловно, конкурентоспособность российского экспорта от этого снижается. Но я считаю эти повышения конъюнктурными и вижу в них явные признаки готовящегося повторения «черного вторника» декабря—2014.

В существующей финансово-экономической системе России рассуждать о суверенитете рубля бессмысленно. Силуанов напоминает мне воробья из басни Крылова, который сидит на голове лошади и думает, что управляет всем экипажем», – резюмировал экономист.

P.S.

31 января также стало известно, что Минфин предложил освободить сотрудников Центрального банка и Агентства по страхованию вкладов от прокурорского надзора и судебного преследования за решения, которые были приняты ими при исполнении служебных обязанностей. Министерство финансов намерено внести поправки в положение о ЦБ и закон о страховании вкладов, в соответствии с которыми сотрудники этих ведомств не смогут быть привлечены к ответственности за принятые решения, даже если они носили явно ошибочный характер, сообщает Царьград ТВ.

Таким образом, если чиновники финансового регулятора принимают постановление о банкротстве или отзыве лицензии у того или иного кредитного учреждения, а после выясняется, что они допустили, умышленно или без умысла, ошибку, которая привела к многомиллиардным потерям физических и юридических лиц, они не понесут за это никакой ответственности. Также невозможно будет подать на них в суд или в прокуратуру за вредительские действия по обвалу рубля. Очевидно, либералы во власти все прекрасно понимают и стелют себе соломку...

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