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Политика

Главная проблема США сейчас ведь не в Украине, Сирии, Ираке с Ираном и прочих Северных Кореях. Системный кризис во внешнем мире просто не мог не отразиться системным кризисом в самом средоточии власти. И тут вдруг выяснилось, что политическая и административная система США, выстроенная в середине прошлого века в противостоянии «советскому проекту», на эти вызовы не способна адекватно ответить. Она просто структурно такова, что может работать только по одному серьезному вызову, которым в свое время был вызов советский. А сейчас его нет.

Осень империи США: закон — прерия, прокурор — гризли

1 ноября 2017 г.

Дмитрий Лекух     Автор: Дмитрий Лекух

© AP Photo / Mike Groll

Мне тут приятель из США позвонил: не подумайте чего плохого, человек там просто в деловой командировке, хоть и довольно длительной.

У них там в городе Вашингтоне, федеральный округ Колумбия, говорит, сейчас очень хорошо.

Осень. Золотая. Днем где-то 15-16 градусов тепла по Цельсию, солнышко, листва — желтая, зеленая, цвета красного золота. Легкий прохладный ветерок с Потомака. Полудеревенская скука. И портят идиллическую атмосферу, говорит, только новости.

Только-только отшумел очередной скандал с Клинтон, и вот тебе на, пожалуйста, наслаждайся «манафортгейтом», считай расклады, к чему это в краткосрочной перспективе приведет.

Пока все выглядит удивительно.

Экс-главе предвыборного штаба Трампа Полу Манафорту грозит тюремное заключение сроком до 80 лет за «сговор против США, сговор с целью отмывания денег, отказ от регистрации в качестве иностранного представителя, несоблюдение американского закона об иностранных агентах (FARA)». Тут, кстати, отдельный привет нашим доморощенным «западникам», оголтело критикующим «недемократичность» отечественного вегетарианского варианта данного закона. Анафорт и его деловой партнер Рик Гейтс обвиняются в незарегистрированной лоббистской деятельности на территории США в период с 2008 по 2014 год в интересах правительства Украины, Партии регионов и экс-президента Украины Виктора Януковича лично.

© REUTERS / James Lawler Duggan Экс-глава предвыборного штаба Трампа Пол Манафорт после заседания суда в Вашингтоне. 30 октября 2017

Ситуация, конечно, очень щекотливая.

Ни у кого, в общем-то, нет сомнений в том, что данные обвинения не беспочвенны.

Но дело тут совершенно не в этом: все точно так же прекрасно понимают, что «вязалово» политического лоббиста такого уровня (и человека при этом вполне информированного) — есть продолжение политической борьбы. И оно при этом явно выходит за все допустимые рамки сложившегося в вашингтонском истеблишменте управленческого и политического консенсуса.

Такое ощущение, что система начинает идти вразнос: просто когда бывшего главу предвыборного штаба действующего президента Трампа обвиняют в сговоре против США — это уже не просто «тревожный симптом». Это показатель того, что когда неписаные правила идут лесом, то следующим шагом неминуемо будет «закон — тайга, прокурор — медведь». Мы (кто постарше) все это уже, к сожалению, на своей собственной шкуре проходили.

Системный крах — он с этого и начинается: с того, что «системные» игроки начинают играть по несистемным правилам.

И здесь очень показательным и символичным, конечно, является тот факт, что «манафортогейт» пришел в США из методично и любовно выстроенной руками американских же технологов, абсолютно токсичной в своей «антисистемности» Украины. Просто когда ты начинаешь воспринимать внешнюю политику как продолжение внутренней, партийной, то нет ничего удивительного в том, что в нее начинают вмешиваться внешние колониальные чиновники.

Если их власть базируется не на суверенном праве их народа, а источник ее лежит в коридорах Капитолийского холма, то, естественно, они начинают решать свои вопросы именно в этих коридорах.

© AP Photo / J. David Ake Вид на здание Капитолия в Вашингтоне

А где, простите, еще.

Главная проблема США сейчас ведь не в Украине, Сирии, Ираке с Ираном и прочих Северных Кореях. Системный кризис во внешнем мире просто не мог не отразиться системным кризисом в самом средоточии власти. И тут вдруг выяснилось, что политическая и административная система США, выстроенная в середине прошлого века в противостоянии «советскому проекту», на эти вызовы не способна адекватно ответить. Она просто структурно такова, что может работать только по одному серьезному вызову, которым в свое время был вызов советский. А сейчас его нет. Есть множество других, новых, пока еще толком не изведанных, — и система сначала забуксовала. Потом стала привычно «сеять хаос» во внешнем мире, упрочивая свое доминирование за счет ослабления потенциальных конкурентов. Банально не просчитав, что ее же тезис «внешняя политика как часть внутренней» фактически неизбежно приведет хаос и домой. Ну вот просто потому, что именно так устроен мир: вы же сами его так и строили. Чего тут теперь переживать.

Нам вообще кажется, что последняя четверть века была самым «пиковым» периодом «хорошей истории США». Тем, который принято определять как «золотая осень империи»: время не только любоваться мягкими красками, но и собирать урожай.

Вот только история, как и времена года, циклична, а не конечна. И рано или поздно «золотая осень» заканчивается, и начинают идти нудные осенние дожди. А потом, может случиться, и ложатся снега: в Вашингтоне, кстати, часто такое бывает. И нам ли им об этом напоминать.

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