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Что касается «остаточного» военного присутствия американцев на Северо-Востоке Сирии, то в этом нет большой проблемы. Более того, это создаёт важный связующий момент в отношениях Москвы и Вашингтона, поскольку естественно, что Россия (и иранцы, что они делают и в Ираке) практически гарантируем безопасность американских военных. Важно, что в данном случае ключевым ресурсом американских военных являются добрые отношения между президентами Д. Трампом и В. Путиным. В принципе же речь идёт о важном элементе того, что принято называть «отношениями между великими державами» как важной составной части многоукладных международных отношений. К этому следует добавить и то, что военные явно становятся проводниками дипломатии новой администрации, отодвигая на второй план Госдепартамент.

В Сирии США выступают в роли «спойлеров», поскольку стремятся не столько выиграть, сколько не дать победить другим.

Сирия доказала и другое: теперь Россия оказалась в состоянии разыгрывать в свою пользу так называемую конструктивную неопределённость согласованных в многостороннем формате решений (той же МГПС), в том числе освящённых резолюциями СБ ООН. В 1990-е гг. этим преимуществом вовсю пользовались американцы (последний раз — в Ливии), что подрывало доверие в наших отношениях. Налицо не только сжатие территории джихада, но и её приближение к Аравийскому полуострову, контроль над которым является конечной целью исламских фундаменталистов.

Военные явно становятся проводниками дипломатии новой администрации, отодвигая на второй план Госдепартамент.

Британский мининдел Б. Джонсон публично дал понять, что в условиях «плохих карт на руках у Запада» ничего не остаётся, как рассчитывать переиграть Москву и Дамаск на поле постконфликтной реконструкции страны. Однако эксперты серьёзно сомневаются, что это получится, поскольку здесь складывается конкурентная среда с участием целого ряда незападных государств, включая Китай. Поэтому Западу остаётся надеяться на работу с сирийскими беженцами за пределами Сирии. В целом можно судить о том, что новое качество ситуации в регионе связано с ликвидацией стратегического присмотра за ним со стороны США.

Лидеры практически всех ближневосточных государств побывали в Кремле или Сочи. Курды оказались последними, кто сделал ставку на США, антагонизировав власти собственных стран (включая сентябрьский референдум о независимости КАР) и рискуя испортить отношения с Россией. Попытка уцепиться за Киркук позволяет судить о степени незрелости курдского руководства и его неспособности трезво оценивать ситуацию, понять, что, не имея выхода к морю, они целиком зависят от властей соответствующих стран и что США не будут объявлять войну сразу четырём государствам, одно из которых член НАТО.

Более фундаментальный вопрос — будущее ислама в свете опыта последних шести лет, включая демонстрацию населению региона того, к чему ведёт попытка возродить священную войну как высшую форму исповедания веры. Можно представить реакцию западной аудитории, если бы нынешние претензии на исключительность озвучивались языком предшественников в лице протестантских фанатиков — кальвинистов/пуритан времён Религиозных войн в Европе, веровавших в свою избранность и отрицавших спасение и само право на жизнь для всех остальных. Наряду с джихадистами дискредитированными оказались «Братья-мусульмане»: в Египте вестернизированной молодежи пришлось выбирать между диктатурой Ассоциации «Братья-мусульмане» (АБМ) и военным правлением.

Конфликт вокруг Катара по поводу его связей с АБМ воспроизвёл в регионе ту же коалицию, что и по Сирии. США лишились инициативы в региональной политике, обслуживая амбиции, сплошь и рядом нереалистичные, своих региональных союзников. Вполне возможно, что действия России в Сирии позволили выиграть мир на Ближнем Востоке, поскольку предотвратили суннитско-шиитскую конфронтацию. Теперь противоречия в арабо-исламском мире могут разрешаться на «поле» развития, на что указывает нынешняя кампания по модернизации в КСА, в рамках которой выдвинут (после Сирии) лозунг «умеренного ислама». Нет сомнений в том, что здесь огромное преимущество у Ирана с его диверсифицированной экономикой, динамичным обществом, включая демократию при всех ее особенностях. Финансовая затратность саудовской модернизации будет сказываться на ценах на нефть.

Новое качество ситуации в регионе связано с ликвидацией стратегического присмотра за ним со стороны США.

Война в Йемене зашла в гуманитарный тупик, высветив не только неспособность КСА защищать свои южные границы, но и сопричастность к происходящему англосаксов. Похоже, что всё выливается в массированное разрушение страны с целью сделать её зависимой от соседей в плане послевоенной реконструкции. Позитивная кристаллизация хаотичной ситуации наблюдалась в Ливии, включая признание генерала Х. Хафтара, поддерживаемого Египтом и ОАЭ, в качестве одной из ключевых фигур политурегулирования. Прагматический подход внешних сил к решению этой задачи диктовался в том числе интересами перекрытия каналов неконтролируемой миграции через территорию Ливии в страны ЕС.

Отсутствие значительных торгово-экономических связей с США оказывается выигрышным моментом для России в рамках взаимоотношений как в геополитическом «треугольнике», так и по оси США — ЕС — Россия.

В течение года продолжалось нагнетание ситуации в Восточной Азии, но преимущественно на уровне военных демонстраций, что относилось и к реакции на ядерные и ракетные испытания КНДР. В более широком плане доказала свою несостоятельность, скорее, мертворождённость идея «большой двойки» в составе США и Китая как новой биполярной основы глобальной стабильности (можно только удивляться способности такого мэтра, как Г. Киссинджер, выдавать желаемое за действительное). В реальности же ситуация продолжала развиваться в русле сложившегося «треугольника» с участием «двойки» и России. Причём в отличие от завершающего этапа холодной войны США оказались в состоянии разного рода конфронтации как с Китаем, так и с Россией. При этом очевидно, что принципиальные развязки по вопросам кибербезопасности и невывода оружия в космос могут быть найдены только в рамках такого «треугольника».

Китай столкнулся с вызовом смены модели развития — от экспортоориентированной к основанной на внутреннем спросе, что отражается на внутренней и внешней политике Пекина. В то же время надо учитывать, что у Китая нет традиций и опыта выстраивания мира под себя. В основном продолжается восстановление утерянных Китаем в середине XIX в. вследствие западного вмешательства позиций в регионе в условиях сложившейся здесь за последние 150 лет «тесноты», что требует деликатной и реалистичной гармонизации.

Проект «Один пояс — один путь» вряд ли даст осязаемые плоды на первом этапе своей реализации, но главное, что он объективно стимулирует заинтересованность Пекина в стабилизации стран по этому маршруту, включая Афганистан и Сирию, а также в сопряжении этой инициативы с интеграцией в рамках ЕАЭС. Применительно к Китаю ситуацию следует отслеживать в том числе на предмет «выбросов» трансформационных процессов в США, имея в виду перспективу торговых войн, объектами которых на пару могут стать Пекин и Берлин.

Возможен вариант использования Вашингтоном такой угрозы (как и дефолта с обвалом доллара) в рамках своей транзакционной дипломатии с целью выйти на договорённости по типу Соглашения «Плаза» 1985 г. о совместных мерах по недопущению повышения курса доллара. Это может стать мощным рычагом перестройки всей экономической политики ФРГ и Евросоюза, тем более в нынешних кризисных условиях, когда свобода манёвра в макроэкономической политике (нулевые ставки банковского процента и т.д.) крайне ограничена, уже не говоря о факторе единой валюты, делающей еврозону крайне неповоротливой. В таком контексте отсутствие значительных торгово-экономических связей с США оказывается выигрышным моментом для России в рамках взаимоотношений как в геополитическом «треугольнике», так и по оси США — ЕС — Россия.

Ситуация в Латинской Америке, которая испытала на себе разрушительное воздействие в том числе падения мировых цен на нефть, в целом доказывала исчерпанность прежней идеологической и политической парадигмы правые-левые и необходимость искать решение проблем развития на иной, исключительно прагматической основе. В любом случае регион прошёл по кругу правых и левых правительств, а проблемы так и остались нерешёнными. Проблемы Африки, как показал опыт последних десятилетий, куда эффективнее решать у их источника, то есть в самих африканских странах, для чего необходимо выработать действенную коллективную стратегию содействия их развитию.

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