Лента новостей

Лента новостей

Украина

Москва «послала» Порошенко

21 июня 2016 г.

   Автор: Геворг Мирзаян

Справка

Мирзаян Геворг Валерьевич- эксперт, специалист в области международных отношений, корреспондент отдела мировой политики журнала «Эксперт», кандидат политических наук, преподаватель Факультета мировой политики ГАУГН (Государственный Академический университет гуманитарных наук)

 

Россия не хочет проводить в ближайшее время встречу в «нормандском формате».

Москва "послала" Порошенко

20 июня немецкая газета «Stuttgarter Zeitung» со ссылкой на свои источники рассказала о подготовке нового саммита в «нормандском формате» (Россия, Германия, Франция и Украина). По расчетам Берлина и Парижа, встреча должна состояться примерно за неделю до намеченного на 8-9 июля саммита НАТО в Варшаве, и ее целью должно быть снятие напряжения между участниками в преддверии решений альянса о усилении своего восточноевропейского фланга. Однако встречаться Москва отказалась. «Не имея сколь-нибудь ощутимых перспектив на результативность, проведение встреч на высшем уровне, конечно, вряд ли возможно», — заявил Дмитрий Песков.

О чем говорить с Порошенко?

Действительно, прошло уже больше года с момента заключения Минских соглашений, а переговоры о параметрах их реализации особо никуда не продвинулись. Особенно в самой важной части «Минска» - политической. Так, ни для кого не секрет, что основной темой переговоров является организация местных выборов в Донбассе. И стороны никак не могут договориться. Президент Украины Петр Порошенко требует допустить до выборов все украинские политические силы, в том числе и призывавших истреблять жителей региона неонацистов. Эту идею отвергают представители ДНР и ЛНР. Против этой идеи выступает и Россия - в Москве прекрасно понимают, что украинский президент в ходе предвыборной кампании на территории ДНР и ЛНР отправит туда жертвенных агнцев в лице наиболее фанатичных приверженцев Майдана. И после их избиений или убийств заявит о срыве не только местных выборов, но и всей столь опасной для него политической части Минских соглашений по вине России.

В ответ Петр Порошенко предлагает, чтобы безопасность на выборах гарантировалась либо украинскими войсками (которых должны пустить в непризнанные республики), либо вооруженными представителями ОБСЕ. Эту идею отвергают уже не только в Донецке и Луганске, но и в Брюсселе. Европейская комиссия не хочет, чтобы военнослужащие из ЕС становились жертвами обстрелов. Собственно, из-за украинского настроя на срыв Минских соглашений и осознания того, что за этот срыв ей ничего не будет, стороны не могут продвинуться по другим пунктам «Минска». Украина отказывается снимать экономическую блокаду Донбасса или проводить обмен пленными по принципу «всех на всех». По данным «Царьграда», киевские власти просто отказываются включать в списки тех лиц, которые нужны непризнанным республикам. На полной амнистии тоже поставлен крест - Киев не хочет возвращать в свое легальное поле лидеров ДНР и ЛНР, поскольку это открывает им возможность участвовать в электоральных кампаниях. Наконец, от Украины невозможно даже добиться прекращения обстрелов — отчасти потому, что Петру Порошенко нужно поддерживать напряженность на линии соприкосновения (дабы европейские партнеры могли обвинить Россию и забывали об Украине), а отчасти потому, что официальный Киев не контролирует все войска под украинским флагом, находящиеся на этой линии.

Ширма больше не нужна?

Конечно, Кремль мог бы проводить переговоры ради переговоров - то есть то самое, чем и занимался последние год с лишним. Минский процесс использовался как некий символ мирного процесса, тогда как всем сторонам было понятно, что они могут договориться лишь о «приднестровизации» Донбасса до лучших времен. Поэтому переговоры вели не столько о реализации «Минска», сколько о деэскалации напряженности до приемлемого уровня.

Деэскалация нужна была не только для нормального функционирования и восстановления экономик непризнанных республик Донбасса - Россия рассчитывала, что ее миролюбие оценят в ЕС и Брюссель примется за нормализацию российско-европейских отношений. Однако этого не произошло. Все прекрасно видят, что Кремль является наиболее активным проводником Минских соглашений, однако европейские лидеры повторяют как мантру, что это именно Россия виновна в их невыполнении. Поэтому, как заявил министр иностранных дел Франции Жан-Марк Эйро в кулуарах заседания Совета ЕС в Люксембурге, санкции против РФ будут продлены еще на полгода. И, как отметил журналистам официальный представитель канцлера ФРГ Штеффен Зайберт, санкции будут продлеваться или ужесточаться до тех пор, пока «Москва не выполнит Минские соглашения». Возможно, именно этим и объясняется отказ Кремля снова проводить переговоры ради переговоров — Москва хочет показать Европе, что не будет дальше терпеть несправедливость.

Собственно, Россия уже выставила условия, при которых готова вернуться за нормандский стол. «Предпосылки могли бы возникнуть только в случае демонстрации украинской стороной готовности для предпринятия тех шагов, которые четко прописаны в Минских соглашениях. Пока, к сожалению, такой готовности не демонстрируется»,— цитирует Дмитрия Пескова "РИА Новости". Кремль ждет шагов либо от Порошенко, либо от новых, более технократичных властей Украины, которые придут ему на смену.

Судя по всему, Петр Порошенко и не будет ничего демонстрировать - его устраивает сложившаяся ситуация. «Нынешняя киевская власть уже неоднократно демонстрировала устойчивость более высокую, чем от нее можно было ожидать, хотя для этого в ряде случаев требовалось вмешательство западных посредников. Поэтому нынешний режим выглядит достаточно устойчивым - настолько, насколько это возможно в стране с депрессивной экономикой, в которой идет гражданская война, очень высок уровень гражданского противостояния даже в относительно спокойных регионах, а внешнее влияние зачастую оказывается определяющим», — говорит «Царьграду» харьковский политолог, директор Восточно-украинского центра стратегических инициатив Роман Травин. Поэтому надежда именно на внешнее влияние: если Брюссель и Вашингтон принудят украинское руководство хотя бы частично выполнять Минские соглашения, процесс может сдвинуться с мертвой точки. Европа может пойти на такой шаг - ей, как и России, не нужна эскалация. Но готов ли Вашингтон посодействовать прогрессу «нормандского формата», за которым последует ослабление позиций Порошенко и новый стимул для нормализации отношений РФ и ЕС? Риторический вопрос.

34   Про Укров

Метки: , , , , , , , ,

Отзывов (156) на «Украина: Минский процесс и выкрутасы Пэдро Порошенко»

  1. hey there and thank you for your information – I’ve certainly picked up something new from right here. I did however expertise a few technical points using this website, since I experienced to reload the website lots of times previous to I could get it to load properly. I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I'm complaining, but slow loading instances times will often affect your placement in google and can damage your high quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords. Well I’m adding this RSS to my email and could look out for a lot more of your respective fascinating content. Make sure you update this again very soon...

  2. Hello there, I found your web site by way of Google at the same time as searching for a similar subject, your website came up, it appears to be like great. I've bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.

  3. Thanks for every other excellent post. The place else may anybody get that type of info in such an ideal means of writing? I have a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the look for such information.

  4. Everyone loves what you guys are up too. Such clever work and exposure! Keep up the fantastic works guys I've included you guys to my blogroll.

  5. Hello.This post was extremely interesting, especially because I was browsing for thoughts on this subject last couple of days.

  6. I loved as much as you'll receive carried out right here. The sketch is attractive, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get got an shakiness over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come further formerly again as exactly the same nearly very often inside case you shield this increase.

  7. Unquestionably believe that which you said. Your favorite reason seemed to be on the web the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people consider worries that they plainly don't know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top as well as defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , people could take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

  8. It's perfect time to make some plans for the future and it's time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I want to suggest you some interesting things or advice. Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article. I want to read even more things about it!

  9. It¡¦s really a great and helpful piece of information. I¡¦m glad that you simply shared this helpful information with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

  10. Definitely, what a fantastic website and informative posts, I definitely will bookmark your blog.All the Best!

  11. you're in point of fact a just right webmaster. The website loading velocity is amazing. It kind of feels that you are doing any distinctive trick. In addition, The contents are masterpiece. you've performed a wonderful task in this matter!

  12. Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to far added agreeable from you! However, how could we communicate?

  13. You made some clear points there. I looked on the internet for the subject matter and found most guys will consent with your site.

  14. Very good written information. It will be beneficial to everyone who utilizes it, as well as myself. Keep doing what you are doing — can'r wait to read more posts.

  15. Someone necessarily help to make severely posts I might state. This is the very first time I frequented your website page and thus far? I amazed with the analysis you made to make this actual publish extraordinary. Great process!

  16. I have to show my appreciation to the writer for bailing me out of this problem. As a result of checking throughout the the net and meeting tips that were not pleasant, I thought my entire life was over. Living without the presence of strategies to the difficulties you have fixed by way of your write-up is a serious case, and ones which may have in a wrong way affected my career if I hadn't encountered your web page. Your understanding and kindness in handling all areas was important. I'm not sure what I would have done if I hadn't discovered such a point like this. I'm able to now relish my future. Thanks so much for this expert and effective help. I will not think twice to propose your blog post to anyone who wants and needs direction about this topic.

  17. I’m not sure where you are getting your information, but great topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more. Thanks for great info I was looking for this information for my mission.

  18. Law:

    I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this site. I am hoping the same high-grade website post from you in the upcoming also. In fact your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own website now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings quickly. Your write up is a good example of it.

  19. Law:

    I have been absent for a while, but now I remember why I used to love this site. Thank you, I¡¦ll try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your website?

  20. Law:

    There is perceptibly a bunch to realize about this. I assume you made some good points in features also.

  21. Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to far added agreeable from you! By the way, how can we communicate?

  22. Hello there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I am going to watch out for brussels. I’ll appreciate if you continue this in future. Many people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  23. I'll immediately grab your rss feed as I can't find your e-mail subscription hyperlink or e-newsletter service. Do you have any? Please permit me realize so that I may subscribe. Thanks.

  24. Helpful info. Lucky me I discovered your web site accidentally, and I am stunned why this coincidence did not happened in advance! I bookmarked it.

  25. My wife and i got really peaceful Louis could conclude his survey from the ideas he made out of your web page. It is now and again perplexing just to choose to be releasing instructions which people have been making money from. And we also understand we have you to appreciate for that. All of the illustrations you have made, the straightforward web site navigation, the friendships you will make it possible to promote — it is most great, and it's leading our son and the family recognize that this issue is exciting, which is very vital. Thanks for the whole lot!

  26. Hi my family member! I want to say that this post is amazing, nice written and include approximately all vital infos. I would like to look extra posts like this .

  27. Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to more added agreeable from you! However, how could we communicate?

    • admin:

      Read my answers to frequently asked questions in a post attached to the main page of the site.

      With respect. Admin

  28. Woah! I'm really enjoying the template/theme of this blog. It's simple, yet effective. A lot of times it's challenging to get that «perfect balance» between user friendliness and appearance. I must say you have done a excellent job with this. Additionally, the blog loads super quick for me on Safari. Superb Blog!

  29. I simply wished to say thanks once more. I'm not certain the things that I could possibly have followed without those concepts provided by you over such subject matter. It was a real traumatic condition in my opinion, but looking at a new expert approach you handled that took me to weep for fulfillment. I am just happy for the work and thus expect you really know what a powerful job that you are providing training the rest by way of your websites. Most probably you've never met all of us.

  30. Good post and right to the point. I don't know if this is in fact the best place to ask but do you folks have any thoughts on where to get some professional writers? Thx :)

  31. Thank you for all your valuable efforts on this blog. My niece really likes managing research and it's easy to see why. We notice all concerning the lively means you present sensible tricks via the web blog and as well recommend participation from others on the concern while our favorite princess is learning a whole lot. Take pleasure in the remaining portion of the new year. You have been performing a good job.

  32. Hey there, You've done a great job. I will definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I am sure they'll be benefited from this site.

  33. I just wanted to make a word in order to appreciate you for all of the pleasant secrets you are showing here. My considerable internet look up has at the end been rewarded with reputable know-how to write about with my pals. I would assume that most of us visitors are undeniably endowed to dwell in a perfect website with so many wonderful people with valuable basics. I feel somewhat blessed to have come across your website page and look forward to some more amazing moments reading here. Thanks again for everything.

  34. There is obviously a lot to realize about this. I suppose you made certain nice points in features also.

  35. certainly like your web site but you need to check the spelling on several of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling issues and I in finding it very bothersome to inform the reality on the other hand I will certainly come back again.

  36. Hi, Neat post. There's a problem along with your website in internet explorer, would test this¡K IE nonetheless is the marketplace leader and a huge part of other folks will miss your magnificent writing because of this problem.

  37. magnificent publish, very informative. I ponder why the opposite experts of this sector don't realize this. You must proceed your writing. I'm confident, you have a great readers' base already!

  38. I was recommended this web site by my cousin. I'm not sure whether this post is written by him as nobody else know such detailed about my trouble. You're amazing! Thanks!

  39. Good site! I truly love how it is simple on my eyes and the data are well written. I am wondering how I might be notified when a new post has been made. I have subscribed to your RSS which must do the trick! Have a nice day!

  40. Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to assert that I acquire actually enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I will be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently quickly.

  41. excellent put up, very informative. I ponder why the other specialists of this sector do not understand this. You must proceed your writing. I'm sure, you've a huge readers' base already!

  42. Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is magnificent blog. A great read. I'll certainly be back.

  43. I have been reading out a few of your stories and it's pretty good stuff. I will surely bookmark your site.

  44. Of course, what a fantastic blog and instructive posts, I definitely will bookmark your site.Have an awsome day!

  45. My brother recommended I might like this web site. He was totally right. This post actually made my day. You cann't imagine simply how much time I had spent for this information! Thanks!

  46. You are a very capable individual!

  47. Wow! Thank you! I continually needed to write on my website something like that. Can I include a portion of your post to my blog?

  48. I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great. I don't know who you are but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you aren't already 😉 Cheers!

  49. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I'm hoping the same high-grade blog post from you in the upcoming as well. In fact your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own site now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings rapidly. Your write up is a good example of it.

  50. Very efficiently written information. It will be helpful to anyone who utilizes it, as well as me. Keep up the good work — looking forward to more posts.

наверх Счетчик PR-CY.Rank