Мысли вслух

Мысли вслух

От первого лица

Трамп – это предложение компромисса для России со стороны мировой элиты. Что за ним стоит на самом деле – время покажет. Президентство Трампа будет достаточно жёстким вариантом смены американского политического курса. Президентство Хиллари Клинтон, после ассимиляции трамповской кампании в американской ментальности, было бы более мягким, переходным этапом.

Само появление Трампа – маркер заката заокеанской империи и рождения полицентричной модели отношений. Это доказательство того, что на этот раз американские выборы уже выиграл Путин. Просто потому, что в новом мире пришло время России занять то место, которое она по праву заслуживает.

Завтра

5 ноября 2016 г.

   Автор: Юлия Бражникова

В истории мировой политики порой случаются потрясающие вещи. Кто бы мог представить себе сто лет назад, что на Земле вдруг появится страна, на государственном уровне провозгласившая всеобщее материальное равенство и жизнь по совести взамен жизни по выгоде? А кто мог усомниться в победе диктатуры третьего рейха на доброй половине Евразийского континента? Никто не предугадал, что держава, победившая Гитлера, будет уничтожена руками своих же граждан всего за одну страшную ночь. И тогда тоже никто, кроме пророков, не предвидел, как разрушенная полумёртвая Россия за какие-нибудь пятнадцать лет вновь станет великой страной, которая изменит облик планеты.

Очень странно, что теперь, в момент острого противостояния двух государств, почти сравнимого с Карибским кризисом, в стане противника вдруг появился наш ярый союзник, да ещё на самом верху. Как-то незаметно и неожиданно кандидатом в президенты США стал политик, провозгласивший первоочередной задачей сотрудничество с Россией.

Конечно, от Америки устал весь мир, в том числе и сами американцы. Однако, с другой стороны, выборы в США – это не торжество демократии и не воля народа, а игры транснациональных органов управления, прокладывающих нужный им политический курс. Трамп – такой же их ставленник, как и Хиллари Клинтон, Обама, Буши и все остальные. Его неожиданная пророссийская позиция может быть только внешним проявлением соглашений, скрытых так глубоко, что о них можно догадаться лишь по едва заметной ряби на поверхности международной жизни планеты. Поэтому вопрос надо задавать правильно – не откуда появился Трамп, а ЗАЧЕМ.

Мировая элита разрабатывает сценарий действий на основе решений, принятых конгломератом личностей с очень даже высоким IQ и глубоким пониманием ситуации. Этот коллективный интеллект рано или поздно должен был сообразить, что проблему постиндустриального суперперепроизводства и мегазакредитованности надо как-то решать. В начале нынешнего тысячелетия была предложена беспрецедентная по своей наглости стратегия продления жизни «золотого миллиарда» за счёт полного разорения третьесортных народов. Место под солнцем в новом мире было обещано лишь англосаксонским странам, части Европы, ОАЭ, Саудовской Аравии и ещё немногим счастливчикам. Российский вопрос на тот момент считался закрытым. Проблемный Китай решено было окружить кольцом санкций, облить презрением и оставить томиться в собственном соку до лучших времён.

Ключом для проведения данной операции, ради которой объединились все ведущие кланы, должен был стать тотальный контроль над возобновляемыми ресурсами, прежде всего нефтяным рынком. Непокорные восточные режимы подлежали уничтожению через «арабскую весну».

Видимо, согласно расчётам мировой элиты, Россия уже никогда не смогла бы вернуть себе былое величие. И такого президента, как Владимир Путин, не должно было быть ни при каких обстоятельствах. Но Путин случился. И очень скоро гегемону стало ясно, что с этим надо что-то делать.

Беда трансатлантической мафии была в том, что она долго не могла в это поверить. Путина следовало принять всерьёз уже после мюнхенской речи и тем более после его беспрецедентного обращения к американскому народу и несостоявшегося вторжения в Сирию в 2013-м. Однако элита пошла по накатанному сценарию. Теперь очевидно, что привычные методы остракизма, запугивания и демонизации ни к чему не привели. Не на того напали. Не приносит успеха и более тонкий способ уничтожения России путём раскола изнутри, через поддержку кучки недовольных и объединения вокруг неё маргинальных элементов. Видно, уроки гибели СССР не прошли даром. Население научилось отличать вечное от преходящего, на мякине лозунгов не разводится и на майдан не выходит.

Нет сомнений, что ядерный удар тоже рассматривался. Например, с территории какой-нибудь Эстонии или Литвы, которых не жалко принести в жертву. Но стремительное перевооружение России свело эту гипотетическую возможность к абсолютному нулю. Путин регулярно напоминает, что начать третью мировую, конечно, может кто-нибудь один, но вот закончат её только все вместе.

Вообще-то ситуацию, повернувшуюся для мирового гегемона столь неприятным образом, можно было пока что заморозить или спустить на тормозах. Однако трансконтинентальный бизнес не учёл, что Путин мыслит вне рамок стереотипов и потому действует парадоксально. Он не станет жить в ожидании провокаций, находясь на шаг позади противника. Картину событий следовало изменить так, чтобы вывести отношения с наднациональным капиталом на уровень партнёрства. То есть вражду и жажду уничтожения требовалось заменить как минимум на конкуренцию, при которой с нашим мнением будут считаться.

Точкой бифуркации стала Сирия.

Ванга недаром считала эту страну краеугольным камнем, способным ввергнуть мировую систему в окончательный хаос либо перестроить её для новых отношений. Остановив вторжение США в Сирию в 2013-м, Путин ясно дал понять, что не отдаст межконтинентальному кооперативу Ближний Восток. С триумфальным завершением арабской весны путём всенародного сожжения тирана Асада приключился облом. Кстати, ценовая лихорадка нефтяного рынка обусловлена главным образом разрушением данной стратегии мирового господства и всеобщей растерянностью, наступившей в стане врага.

В довершение провала, в украинском сценарии состязание разведок ЦРУ продуло позорнейшим образом. Хитрый план по отжиму Черноморского флота руками Незалежной был быстро просчитан, а вот разрешение проблемы путём возвращения Крыма предугадать не смог никто. Донбасс со стороны Америки, кажется, стал актом отчаяния – очень глупо было предполагать, что осторожный Путин поддастся на провокацию и ввяжется в войну. Минские соглашения, хоть и бесконечно нарушаемые, окончательно законсервировали этот предполагавшийся рычаг воздействия на Россию. На всех уровнях переговоров ЛДНР и Кремль дают понять, что если не будет по-нашему, то не будет никак.

Весь остаток 2015-го и начало 2016-го мировой капитал лихорадочно метался в поисках более выгодного для себя выхода и, само собой, его не нашёл. Теракты лишь озлобили население Европы, восстановив его против США и беззубой политики ЕС. Антиправительственные акции в Армении и Казахстане усилили страх перед ИГИЛ и скомпрометировали проамериканские структуры в СНГ. Потерпела фиаско даже попытка вновь взорвать Восток, теперь уже через Турцию: планировалось поссорить её с Россией и отдать в руки радикальной оппозиции (читай – ИГИЛ) путём переворота. Российские спецслужбы ещё раз обыграли противника – вовремя предупреждённый Эрдоган правильно отреагировал и публично примирился с Путиным. Америке осталось кусать локти.

Таким образом, к осени 2016-го на повестке дня оказались Украина и Сирия – два безвыходных положения, в которые США загнали себя сами. Непонятная заморозка украинского конфликта, сбивающая с толку аналитиков и переворачивающая вверх дном все прогнозы, вызвана необходимостью как-то дотянуть до 8 ноября. Тогда ушедшая администрация Белого дома будет избавлена от позорной капитуляции, позволив Порошенко наконец принять особый статус ЛДНР. Поэтому до выборов все встречи в нормандском формате и переговоры контактной группы в Минске были заведомо бессмысленными: главный игрок попросту не готов к действиям.

Откладываемое освобождение Алеппо вообще представляется не очень удачной картой, разыгрываемой с той же целью. Ибо не заботой же о мирном населении объясняется нежелание Америки покончить с ИГИЛ и Джебхат-ан-Нусрой. Однако ожидать, что с приходом новой американской власти в многовековом ближневосточном споре англосаксов с Россией будет поставлена точка, не приходится. Слишком много здесь вложено Штатами ради чёрного золота. Потребуется не один десяток лет дипломатической работы, чтобы измученный арабский мир наконец оставили в покое, позволив ему развиваться по своим канонам. С другой стороны, террористы тоже слишком соблазнительный инструмент, и сразу отказаться от него у Америки вряд ли получится. Ведь так просто публично разгромить Исламское государство в Сирии и тайно перебазировать его, например, в Ирак.

Однако, при всех будущих сложностях восточного расклада, к концу 2016-го конфигурация глобальных политических сил в мире изменилась. Путин завёл зазнавшееся мировое правительство в совершенный тупик, поставив ему мат практически по всем направлениям. Элитному бизнесу был оставлен скудный выбор: либо броситься на ядерную амбразуру (а для расчётливого капиталиста это не вариант), либо согласиться сойти с трона и скрепя сердце договариваться с Россией.

Требованием и условием сделки стала кардинальная смена многовековой пиратской политики Нового Света и согласие на политэкономическую многополярность, с сохранением статуса США как супердержавы (помните, Владимир Владимирович не раз повторял, что Америка – это великая страна?). Среди всех фантастических выходов из создавшегося запутанного положения это было самым невозможным и одновременно самым гениальным решением.

Основная трудность состояла в разработке алгоритма его исполнения. Глобальному капиталу невозможно открыто признать своё поражение. Это не вопрос самолюбия. Нынешний финансовый мир слишком взаимозависим. Внезапное крушение авторитета такой страны, как США, поставит под удар наднациональные организации и вызовет грандиозный обвал рынков. Всё это ввергнет планету в штопор и может привести её к необратимой катастрофе. Поэтому проблема свелась к тому, что мелкий тиран должен подвинуться на пьедестале с сохранением лица.

Из признания геополитического мультицентризма естественным образом вытекало наличие иного центра притяжения. Им могла стать только Россия, преемница Советского Союза, победившего фашизм; Россия, всего лишь за 15 послеперестроечных лет вновь ставшая сверхдержавой; Россия, совершившая невозможное – настоящее экономическое и политическое чудо, не чета китайскому. Однако, ради всеобщей стабильности, переход от почти военной конфронтации к партнёрству должен осуществляться не вынужденно, а максимально естественно и убедительно.

Самый простой способ – плановая конституционная смена американского политического курса и выдвижение нового лидера. Политика, признающего все провалы Обамы и имеющего смелость ради их исправления отказаться от традиционно разбойничьей тактики Белого дома и признать необходимость союза с Россией.

Остаётся лишь догадываться, какая колоссальная дипломатическая работа была проведена, прежде чем требуемый компромисс обрёл зримые очертания. Обычная публика могла судить о происходящем лишь по таинственным визитам Киссинджера в Россию да по некоторым странностям в протекании крупных конфликтов (например, в украинском), никак не желавших развиваться по установленным правилам.

Сама идея сотрудничества непримиримых соперников настолько невероятна, что требует значительного времени для усвоения. Кроме того, среди владельцев трансконтинентальных конгломератов слишком многие оказывались в колоссальном проигрыше, сделав ставку на усиливающуюся конфронтацию с Россией. Магнаты запросто могли погубить в зародыше инициативу выдвижения пророссийского Трампа, если бы только всерьёз поверили в его победу. Неожиданность 180-градусного разворота американской политики следовало смягчить и заретушировать всеми возможными способами.

Дональда Трампа вывели на предвыборную сцену в середине 2015 года, когда, как говорится, даже особо одарённым стало понятно, что с Путиным придётся серьёзно считаться. К этому времени недовольство действиями правительства Обамы среди европейцев и самих американцев уже перешло пределы электорального большинства. Но даже тогда Трамп как можно дольше представлялся не выразителем общего мнения, а лишь контрастным оттенком для Клинтон, этаким эпатажным шутом в противовес солидной Хиллари. Если присмотреться, его шансы на победу резко и непредсказуемо пошли в гору только в последние месяцы, когда радикально повлиять на ситуацию оппоненты уже не могли.

Эта двойная игра обусловила продолжающуюся риторику холодной войны, хотя её бессмысленность уже очевидна. Невыигрышная, нелепая антироссийская позиция администрации Обамы вынуждала его на каждом шагу нарушать собственные решения и разрывать только что подписанные соглашения, дискредитируя свою страну в глазах международной общественности. Тем самым она сыграла значительную роль для укоренения трамповской программы в американских умах.

Всё же конфронтация 2014—2015 годов была смертельно опасной. Во-первых, противник явно не ожидал от России столь решительных и независимых действий, а потому реагировал чрезмерно агрессивно. Во-вторых, разозлить трансконтинентального молоха до белого каления, а затем идти с ним на переговоры мог только политик, стоящий на позиции воина, ибо для этого нужно полнейшее бесстрашие и сознание своей правоты. Вынудить к соглашению не марионеточную администрацию Обамы, а тех, кто много веков дёргает Белый дом за ниточки, – деяние на грани дипломатического подвига, достойное занесения в учебники истории.

Стоит заметить, что Путин даже в самой острой ситуации никогда не позволял себе резких высказываний в адрес США. В данном случае это не просто соблюдение этикета. Говоря с Америкой, он обращается не к оголтелым агрессорам, а к тем здравомыслящим созидательным силам, которые есть в любом государстве и без которых нормальное государственное устройство вообще невозможно.

По существу, выдвижение Трампа – это готовящийся подрыв «партии войны», рупором которой намечена Хиллари. Трамп открыл Америке окно Овертона, многократно озвучив желание и настоятельную необходимость сотрудничества с Россией и Путиным. Тем самым он внедрил в сознание американского обывателя мысль о том, что эта невероятная возможность вполне осуществима и реальна. Сработала та же техника манипуляции коллективным бессознательным, жестоко и разрушительно применённая Штатами по отношению к 40-миллионной Украине.

Трамп – это предложение компромисса для России со стороны мировой элиты. Что за ним стоит на самом деле – время покажет. Президентство Трампа будет достаточно жёстким вариантом смены американского политического курса. Президентство Хиллари Клинтон, после ассимиляции трамповской кампании в американской ментальности, было бы более мягким, переходным этапом.

Само появление Трампа – маркер заката заокеанской империи и рождения полицентричной модели отношений. Это доказательство того, что на этот раз американские выборы уже выиграл Путин. Просто потому, что в новом мире пришло время России занять то место, которое она по праву заслуживает.

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