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Политика

Весь российский внешнеполитический инструментарий на белорусском направлении должен быть переформатирован в соответствии с требованиями текущей повестки.

Российско-белорусским отношениям сегодня более всего не хватает важнейшего элемента человеческого бытия — искренности. Чем более искренними, ясными и прозрачными они станут, тем больше шансов обеспечить им комфортное будущее.

Российско-белорусские отношения должны быть полностью переформатированы

6 января 2017 г.

     EurAsia Daily

Автор: Владимир Зотов, шеф-редактор Западной редакции EADaily

На протяжении последних месяцев официальные представители России и Белоруссии регулярно уверяли аудиторию в том, что все проблемы в двусторонней торговле (а отношения Москвы и Минска уже давно сводятся к одной лишь торговле, и ни к чему более) будут решены в самое ближайшее время.

Если вспомнить прогнозы членов правительств, приближенных к властям экспертов, а также сливы из «источников, близких к переговорам», то текущий нефтегазовый конфликт должен был быть разрешён ещё осенью, причём на белорусских условиях. Однако сейчас начало нового года, и принципиально важные для Минска вопросы, связанные с поставками сырья и предоставлением очередных траншей российского кредита, никакого решения так и не получили.

Белорусская экономика: гальванизация трупа

Впрочем, если бы всё вышло иначе (Россия простила бы Белоруссии долг за газ, обеспечила бы поставки нефти в требуемых Минском объёмах и продолжила бы его кредитование), это принципиально ничего бы не изменило. Текущая белорусская экономическая модель не реанимируема, и это многократно подтверждённый факт. В разные годы Белоруссия получала от России всё, что хотела — газ по самым низким ценам, возможность беспошлинного экспорта произведённых из российского сырья нефтепродуктов, сверхльготные условия для своих товаров на российском рынке. Однако каждый раз вскоре выяснялось, что полученных благ оказывалось критически мало, после чего Минск начинал высказывать очередную обиду и заявлять о своём разочаровании в экономическом взаимодействии с Россией и участии в возглавляемых ей интеграционных проектах. Разочарование это, как мы видим, приобретает самые разные формы — от недоплаты за приобретённый газ до арестов пророссийских журналистов, неоднократно указывавших, в числе прочего, и на то, что нынешняя экономическая политика белорусских властей всё более уверенно ведёт постсоветскую республику прямиком в пропасть.

Белорусская экономика давно превратилась в чёрную дыру, куда продолжают падать всё новые миллиарды долларов, миллионы тонн нефти и кубометров газа, а также поистине бессчётное количество прочих преференций, дотаций и льгот. И самым парадоксальным в сложившейся ситуации представляется даже не то, что Минск напрочь отказывается в обмен на помощь Москвы пойти ей навстречу в тех или иных военных и политических вопросах — отказ Белоруссии помогать России поддаётся хоть какому-то логическому объяснению. Гораздо интереснее, что она отказывается помогать самой себе — и вот это с 1991 года и есть главная белорусская тайна. На те средства, которые Москва за это время вложила в местную экономику, небольшое государство в центре европейского континента можно было превратить если не в Швейцарию, то уж по крайней мере во вполне адекватную восточноевропейскую республику, способную обеспечить достойный уровень жизни для всех её граждан. При этом ведь нельзя сказать, что поступавшие в Белоруссию средства банально разворовывались: запредельной коррупции украинского образца там нет. То есть мы просто имеем дело с неким особым талантом белорусского руководства в деле управления экономикой. И в результате вместо восточноевропейского уюта мы видим серьёзнейшую экономическую деградацию, падающую промышленность и ухудшение всех показателей, связанных с условиями жизни людей. Многолетние заверения официоза о скорейшей и неизбежной экономической модернизации заверениями и остались. И всё это сопровождается прогрессирующим усилением национализма и регулярными «взбрыкиваниями» пребывающей в постоянном неврозе власти.

Химера «ухода на Запад»

Одной из неизменных черт внешнеполитического поведения официального Минска традиционно являлось стремление грозить Москве «уходом на запад». «Геополитический маятник Лукашенко» уже стал устойчивым выражением — причём, похоже, руку к этому приложила сама официальная белорусская пропаганда. Здесь Белоруссии в последнее время везло. Начиная с 2014 года глава белорусского МИДа Владимир Макей проделал на западном направлении огромную работу. Ему сопутствовал успех: санкции были фактически сняты, Александр Лукашенко окончательно был выписан из «последних диктаторов», Евросоюз официально предложил Минску начать отношения «с чистого листа». На переговоры по Донбассу в гости к президенту Белоруссии начали регулярно заглядывать лидеры крупнейших европейских государств, Минск всё чаще стали посещать представители Госдепа и Пентагона. Однако вскоре закономерно обнаружилась одна деталь: сближение с Западом оказалось абсолютно бессмысленным в финансовом плане. Российские эксперты неоднократно предупреждали о том, что кроме Москвы желающих финансировать «белорусскую модель» не найдётся. РФ давала живые деньги; ЕС же ограничивается разговорами о перспективах выделения неких мифических «инвестиций» и «технологий». В частности, Минск уже несколько лет не может договориться об открытии новой кредитной программы МВФ (более чем скромной по своим объёмам) — и это при том самом «потеплении в отношениях», которым так гордится белорусский официоз. А те миллионы евро, которые Брюссель, Берлин и Варшава вкладывают в проекты по развитию в белорусских регионах очередного «местного самоуправления», фактически направлены на создание там сети своих сторонников среди регионального руководства.

Белоруссия может предложить Западу только одно — последовательный антироссийский курс. Лукашенко мог бы решиться на такое лишь при условии гарантий собственного политического будущего и обильных финансовых вливаний. Однако на данный момент ЕС и США не готовы принять приемлемого для Минска решения ни по первому, ни по второму вопросу. В связи с этим, становится очевидно, что практический смысл всех телодвижений белорусской власти на западном направлении в последние годы на деле оказался крайне скуден. И дальнейшее сближение с новыми «партнёрами» неизбежно приведёт к размыванию власти Лукашенко с последующей «украинизацией» внутриполитической ситуации в постсоветской республике. По всей видимости, формулу — «а если не будете нас содержать, то мы уйдём на Запад» белорусскому руководству придётся отставить — любые детские манипуляции в политике устаревают и приходят в негодность очень быстро.

Крайне своеобразное союзничество

О том, что Белоруссия является официальным политическим и военным союзником России, в последнее время стали забывать как на западе, так и на востоке — настолько своеобразно ведёт себя Минск. О тотальном саботаже союзнических обязательств белорусских властей перед Москвой за последнее время был написан огромный объём материалов, так что здесь ограничимся лишь кратким напоминанием. В 2010 году помощник президента РФ Сергей Приходько заявлял о возможности опубликования стенограммы, на которой Александр Лукашенко публично обещал признать независимость Абхазии и Южной Осетии. При этом российские военные сообщали, что у Москвы имелись предметные договорённости с Минском о размещении на белорусской территории авиабазы ВКС РФ, от чего белорусские власти позднее открестились. Белоруссия активно развивает военное сотрудничество с Украиной, помогая ей в ремонте боевых машин, поставляя различную технику для «АТО» и продавая на льготных условиях дизтопливо, которое используется для заправки украинских танков. Российский эксперт Евгений Сатановский также заявлял, что Минск продаёт имеющееся у него советское оружие Катару и ОАЭ, которым они позднее снабжают своих сателлитов из числа воюющих в Сирии террористов. При этом Белоруссия состоит с Россией в Союзном государстве, о котором, конечно, в последнее время вспоминают всё реже и реже, но которое, осмелюсь напомнить, никто не отменял.

В связи со всем вышеперечисленным, становится очевидным, что те догмы и постулаты, на которых доселе зиждились российско-белорусские отношения, должны быть кардинально пересмотрены в пользу принципов более адекватного и эффективного взаимодействия. Принципы эти очень просты:

— Белоруссия является суверенным независимым государством, признаваемым таковым ООН и другими ключевыми международными организациями. В этих условиях логично было бы ожидать от неё соответствующего поведения во внешней политике. На практике же устремления Минска к укреплению независимости в основном сводятся к постоянным требованиям её поддержки со стороны России. Здесь следует официально заявить, что суверенитет Белоруссии является исключительно её собственной проблемой. Россия не обязана и не должна оплачивать чужую независимость. Это как в отношениях с женщинами: бывает ли, что женщина находится на прямом и косвенном содержании у мужчины, но при этом настаивает на своей полной независимости, а в ответ на все вопросы лишь наивно хлопает глазами — «но я же тебя люблю, милый»? Такое бывает, и не очень редко. Стоит ли с этим мириться? Это каждый решает для себя сам, однако над мужчиной, долгое время пребывающим в отношениях подобного типа, со временем начинают смеяться — сначала тихо, а потом всё громче и громче. В этих условиях самым лучшим подарком белорусской независимости со стороны России станет отказ от её бездумного дотирования, ибо суверенитет за чужой счёт — это всё же не суверенитет, а что-то другое.

— Сказанное выше абсолютно не означает, что Россия должна отказаться от своих интересов в Белоруссии. Речь также не идёт о том, что Россия не должна помогать Белоруссии — должна, конечно, поддерживая её в выполнении союзнических обязательств. В этом смысле нынешняя установка на интеграцию через развитие преимущественно экономического сотрудничества представляется выгодной лишь одной стороне. Ограничить сотрудничество экономическим взаимодействием, которое, опять же, должно сводиться в основном к предоставлению преференций и дотаций — это ровно то, чего хочет Минск. Поэтому все экономические вопросы должны быть вполне официально (и бояться этого не стоит) увязаны с политикой. Предоставление любых желаемых льгот должно сопровождаться конкретными шагами навстречу в политической и военной сфере, ибо только такие отношения можно назвать по-настоящему союзническими. То, что сейчас является предметом закулисных переговоров и подковёрной борьбы, следует сделать частью официальной повестки двустороннего взаимодействия, что поможет избежать вредных неясностей и спекуляций. Что касается взаимодействия в рамках уже работающих интеграционных проектов, прежде всего, Евразийского экономического союза, то его следует развивать крайне аккуратно, любыми средствами избегая его превращения в предмет очередного торга.

— Помимо политических, в будущую повестку должны быть внесены вопросы и гуманитарного характера. Этим моментам руководство РФ традиционно уделяет недопустимо мало внимания, сводя желательный образ российско-белорусских отношений, грубо говоря, к схеме «платят за газ, не вступают в НАТО, и ладно». При нынешнем развитии событий представляется неизбежным, что следующее поколение белорусской элиты будет полностью националистическим — и вот оно уже и платить перестанет, и вступит. Поэтому объём предоставляемых Минску преференций должен быть обратно пропорционален количеству новых памятников литовским князьям, реставрируемых замков польских помещиков и прочих «дней вышиванки». Денег на вышиванки нет и не будет. Кроме того, декларируемая обеими сторонами борьба за историческую правду не должна исчерпываться лишь общим видением событий, происходивших в годы Великой Отечественной войны. К примеру, война 1812 года вновь должна стать для белорусов Отечественной — а не как сейчас, когда белорусская академия наук заявляет, что местное белорусское население являлось в ней пострадавшей стороной. Такие деятели, как Викентий Константин Калиновский, должны быть объявлены теми, кем они и были для белорусов на самом деле — убийцами и террористами, а не «борцами за свободу белорусского народа». Польские магнаты Радзивиллы, эксплуатировавшие сотни белорусских крепостных, должны остаться именно польскими магнатами, а не некой «белорусской шляхтой», никогда не существовавшей в природе. Оплачивать взращивание очередной националистической мифологии по украинскому образцу — это всё-таки несколько нерационально.

— Арест трёх пророссийских журналистов, среди которых был и обозреватель EADaily Юрий Павловец, помимо прочего, весьма наглядно продемонстрировал истинную суть государства, которое упорно позиционируется его властью как европейское. Стоит признать, что в последнее время подобные события всё реже происходят даже в самых дремучих азиатских деспотиях. Реакция провластных пропагандистов, а также с радостью присоединившихся к ним представителей «демократической оппозиции», хором требующих расправы над сторонниками ненавистного Русского мира, само собой, не вызывает удивления. Но основной парадокс заключается в том, что и заявления посла РФ Александра Сурикова, фактически одобрившего аресты сотрудников официально зарегистрированных СМИ государства, которое он должен представлять, тоже не стали неожиданностью. Те, кому приходилось общаться с Суриковым, неоднократно говорили, что главным для него всегда было одно — «чтобы всё было тихо». Это посол системы «Черномырдин-Зурабов», ведущий себя в соответствии с нормами прошлой (хотелось бы в это верить) политической эпохи, когда многие представители дипмиссий РФ в ближнем зарубежье рассматривали любую пророссийскую активность на местах прежде всего как проблему для собственного безмятежного существования. Адекватность его нахождения на данной должности в то время, когда вся конфигурация двусторонних отношений претерпевает коренные изменения — вопрос полностью риторический. В целом весь российский внешнеполитический инструментарий на белорусском направлении должен быть переформатирован в соответствии с требованиями текущей повестки.

Российско-белорусским отношениям на самом деле более всего не хватает важнейшего элемента человеческого бытия — искренности. Чем более искренними, ясными и прозрачными они станут, тем больше шансов обеспечить им комфортное будущее.

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